tombo82685 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 through hr 15, the nam is weaker with the surface low pressure, but its a good bit further west it looks like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 holy poop, the 18hr nam has a sub 1012 low bout 50 miles east of orf....way west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 hr 21 sub 1008 low about 40-50 miles east of ocmd....mod to hvy precip breaking out over dc and balt...way more amped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 holy poop, the 18hr nam has a sub 1012 low bout 50 miles east of orf....way west Its also 1 MB deeper then the 00z was Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 holy poop, the 18hr nam has a sub 1012 low bout 50 miles east of orf....way west Sim radar already looks good for more people at hr. 18. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 wowoowowow hr 24 sub 1000 low 50 miles east of acy .5-.75 qpf over se pa and jerz way wetter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather5 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 hr 21 sub 1008 low about 40-50 miles east of ocmd....mod to hvy precip breaking out over dc and balt...way more amped dang so when do we start nowcasting because radar doesnt look good yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 From my blog written about 15 minutes ago This low should be about 50 miles off the coast. It will be relatively a quick hitter but it has the potential to rapidly deepen.With these type of systems the track can be a little bit erratic ..so their is still a chance that we could end up with a slightly further west track. Nice to see the NAM look like this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 hr 27 sub 996 low 50-75 miles east of toms river... .75-1 qpf for 6 hr period phl north woow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 dang so when do we start nowcasting because radar doesnt look good yet. radar isnt really relevant yet, we are waiting for redevelopment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 through hr 27 phl at 1 qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 hr 27 sub 996 low 50-75 miles east of toms river... .75-1 qpf for 6 hr period phl north woow Thanks, Tom! Hoping this isn't a 6z NAM burp. But the Euro trended well, so we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 lol what a great run, but this prob a hiccup, but amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 lol what a great run, but this prob a hiccup, but amazing. Could be, but last minute trends occur. Night, Tom - thanks for the pbp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 lol what a great run, but this prob a hiccup, but amazing. I am going to respectfully disagree! Remember , virtually i was the one that was posting the NOGAPS model every run? Ten runs in a row? Then it went east because the other models were going west. Now as of 12 Z today it started coming back west and amping up again..18 Z slightly more and 00z slightly more. NOGAPS sniffed this out well before anything else! Well this is virtually how it started out. Maybe even a tad tick west yet & more qpf yet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I am going to respectfully disagree! Remember , virtually i was the one that was posting the NOGAPS model every run? Ten runs in a row? Then it went east because the other models were going west. Now as of 12 Z today it started coming back west and amping up again..18 Z slightly more and 00z slightly more. NOGAPS sniffed this out well before anything else! Well this is virtually how it started out. Maybe even a tad tick west yet & more qpf yet... the only thing i can say is that the euro did come in a good bit west, but wow, im not sure, i still think this is a hiccup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I am going to respectfully disagree! Remember , virtually i was the one that was posting the NOGAPS model every run? Ten runs in a row? Then it went east because the other models were going west. Now as of 12 Z today it started coming back west and amping up again..18 Z slightly more and 00z slightly more. NOGAPS sniffed this out well before anything else! Well this is virtually how it started out. Maybe even a tad tick west yet & more qpf yet... i dont know, the NAM does this sometimes, usually in this range before the storm, their is no other guidance supporting quite this solution. May indicate a decent trend west, though, i just wouldnt count on this coming close to verifying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Sorry to barge in from the NYC thread. But wow, what an amazing run, the NW tucked in low was just ridiculous, and it might not be a total fluke. Similar to last night's Nam run. Good luck everyone, I'll go back to my thread now. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Sorry to barge in from the NYC thread. But wow, what an amazing run, the NW tucked in low was just ridiculous, and it might not be a total fluke. Similar to last night's Nam run. Good luck everyone, I'll go back to my thread now. lol same to you bro, i hope you guys get clocked up there again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 same to you bro, i hope you guys get clocked up there again. Thanks man, you too. There is some support for the 06 NAM not to be a total fluke or hiccup: "Wow, the scary thing is..is this run is believable given the continued amplification trends we have seen in the height field." --- Baroclinic Instability (Post #810, NYC thread). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 same to you bro, i hope you guys get clocked up there again. tombo, before i go to bed, do you have a qpf total for PHL for this run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 heres the 3z eta Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 tombo, before i go to bed, do you have a qpf total for PHL for this run? i can give u a rough measurement...but i wont have the actualy till the run is over. it looks like its around 1 inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 stormvista snowfall map has phl and burbs in 8-12 inches of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather5 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 tombo stayed up this long so i will just ask whats it look like york, pa thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 stormvista snowfall map has phl and burbs in 8-12 inches of snow Did not the ECM also make landfall on eastern LI? That is where this essentially ends up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 tombo stayed up this long so i will just ask whats it look like york, pa thanks per nam its like .6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather5 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 per nam its like .6 humm not to bad, thanks see you guys in the am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 heres the 3z srefs indiv ens total qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 its going to be interesting to see what the rgem looks like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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