tombo82685 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Nope...I'm here until the 6z NAM is done. sweet, more the merrier. The euro at 240 looks nasty with that pna ridge, huge arctic airmass coming south into the plains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 same here, looks like its just you and i lol I am actually curious to see if the GFS actually trends towards the mesoscale models /NAM/ECM or if it continues to be in a camp virtually by itself! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 sweet, more the merrier. The euro at 240 looks nasty with that pna ridge, huge arctic airmass coming south into the plains Yes, the GFS and ECM really want to build in a +PNA with amplitude back towards AK after the initial clipper/cold front this weekend. Looks as if we could be dealing with some very cold temperatures if that airmass makes its way into the CONUS, as the ECM has a core of -36C 850s over the Canadian Prairies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 sweet, more the merrier. The euro at 240 looks nasty with that pna ridge, huge arctic airmass coming south into the plains im here too, thanks for all of the info you share with our region, we are lucky to have you. im going to throw this out there, see what you guys think. I really think this storm might follow a perfect miller B pattern 1-2" DC 2-4 Baltimore 3-6 Philly 6-12 NYC 12-18 Boston Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lisnow66 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 sweet, more the merrier. The euro at 240 looks nasty with that pna ridge, huge arctic airmass coming south into the plains hell i'm still up here in nassau county. hope to do well with this storm. Hey Tombo does the long range Euro have any more storms brewing? how cold does it get here in tri state area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 same here, looks like its just you and i lol and me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Yes, the GFS and ECM really want to build in a +PNA with amplitude back towards AK after the initial clipper/cold front this weekend. Looks as if we could be dealing with some very cold temperatures if that airmass makes its way into the CONUS, as the ECM has a core of -36C 850s over the Canadian Prairies. you think the gfs? The op tonight post 240 didnt really have a huge pna like the euro. The euro is pumping 546 hgst into alaska, the gfs doesnt look nearly as bullish. Though, the mjo going into 8phase supports the pos pna Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 and me hahah good, i thought you would be in your thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 hell i'm still up here in nassau county. hope to do well with this storm. Hey Tombo does the long range Euro have any more storms brewing? how cold does it get here in tri state area? yea its got the hr 180 event like the gfs, its been changing every run, tonights run was a cutter through pa...long range looks cold..hr 240 has a siberian airmass coming into the plains with a huge pna ridge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherweather Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 im here too, thanks for all of the info you share with our region, we are lucky to have you. im going to throw this out there, see what you guys think. I really think this storm might follow a perfect miller B pattern 1-2" DC 2-4 Baltimore 3-6 Philly 6-12 NYC 12-18 Boston Thoughts? Should work out well, possible potential of busting too low in philly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Desnowlover Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I am here Tombo! Thanks for all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 you think the gfs? The op tonight post 240 didnt really have a huge pna like the euro. The euro is pumping 546 hgst into alaska, the gfs doesnt look nearly as bullish. Though, the mjo going into 8phase supports the pos pna The GFS builds a huge PNA ridge a little earlier around Day 8...that looks like a KU set-up at 500mb: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather5 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 along for the ride also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 im here too, thanks for all of the info you share with our region, we are lucky to have you. im going to throw this out there, see what you guys think. I really think this storm might follow a perfect miller B pattern 1-2" DC 2-4 Baltimore 3-6 Philly 6-12 NYC 12-18 Boston Thoughts? imho id bump totals from phl north...most guidance has atleast .5 or more for phl... and if you get any kind of ratios thats more than 6. i believe i posted a map in the map thread, but my thought were dc 1-3 balt around 4 phl 7-10 nyc 10-15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather5 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 The GFS builds a huge PNA ridge a little earlier around Day 8...that looks like a KU set-up at 500mb: Man tell me this is good news for a good snowstorm for the snowdome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 sweet, more the merrier. The euro at 240 looks nasty with that pna ridge, huge arctic airmass coming south into the plains I'm here until the NAM is over. Can't stay up for the GFS - lol. Does the Euro have a storm around D10 like the GFS does? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 imho id bump totals from phl north...most guidance has atleast .5 or more for phl... and if you get any kind of ratios thats more than 6. i believe i posted a map in the map thread, but my thought were dc 1-3 balt around 4 phl 7-10 nyc 10-15 i agree with you re: Philly, i just liked the symmetry of the numbers i threw out, and I think the end result will fall roughly in line with it. Kind of like what you would draw up if someone said give me the total snowfall with a typical winter miller B snowstorm, with no more info; Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clindner00 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 How did the euro ensembles look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 The GFS builds a huge PNA ridge a little earlier around Day 8...that looks like a KU set-up at 500mb: thats nothing compared to the euro its late but heres the euro, look at this ridge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 How did the euro ensembles look? i dont get the euro ens...but they come out around 3 for ppl who have early access, for the rest of us 330 on allan's site Im sure someone will post them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 anyone staying up tonight or am i going to have a convo with myself tonight lol? I am here glancing at the thread every now and then while working on the forecast (aviation/marine). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I'm here until the NAM is over. Can't stay up for the GFS - lol. Does the Euro have a storm around D10 like the GFS does? it has the 180 ish storm, its been waffling back and forth. This run was a cutter through pa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I am here glancing at the thread every now and then while working on the forecast (aviation/marine). hahaha glad to see you're here. Do you get exact qpf numbers for the euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 im eager to see what the srefs show. Wouldn't shock me if they were a tick east, since the nam's qpf field was shrunken but beefed up the totals within the heavier areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 3z srefs are actually a tick west, wetter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 im eager to see what the srefs show. Wouldn't shock me if they were a tick east, since the nam's qpf field was shrunken but beefed up the totals within the heavier areas. im dozing off with the computer on my lap, trying to make it to the NAM. clearly i need some help Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 thats nothing compared to the euro its late but heres the euro, look at this ridge ECM is sweet...552dm block over AK with a connection to Siberia pushing a 480dm PV into the CONUS....just brutal cold coming there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 im dozing off with the computer on my lap, trying to make it to the NAM. clearly i need some help well wake up nam coming in now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 nam a good bit more amplified with the northern stream at hr 12, stornger at h5 to... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 ECM is sweet...552dm block over AK with a connection to Siberia pushing a 480dm PV into the CONUS....just brutal cold coming there. yup thats what i was saying, the gfs looks nothing like that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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