tombo82685 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 gfs ens are still wetter than the op and further west, though they have backed off some from 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 GFS clown 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 gfs ens are still wetter than the op and further west, though they have backed off some from 18z Link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 mm5 30 33 (boom) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Link? http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models.html its on the right hand side of the page Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 SB MM5 through 12z Wednesday... 12z Monday MM5 had roughly 0.30"-0.50" across eastern PA and 0.50"-0.75" across NJ so not much of a change. (probably another just another 0.10" at most, after 12z Wednesday) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 30 hr ARW Actually looks slightly west of the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet-Phase Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 One of the major things we are seeing as we near the event is the mesoscale models leading the way. They are making more sense and picking up on features the GFS simply cannot. It reading what other mets are saying, the mesoscale banding will be very impressive and the ratios may be higher than what most expect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 30 hr ARW Actually looks slightly west of the NAM where are you getting that so early? looks like ncep image but ncep site still has last nites 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 where are you getting that so early? looks like ncep image but ncep site still has last nites 0z NY Thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 30 hr ARW Actually looks slightly west of the NAM much drier than its 12z run valid same time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 One of the major things we are seeing as we near the event is the mesoscale models leading the way. They are making more sense and picking up on features the GFS simply cannot. It reading what other mets are saying, the mesoscale banding will be very impressive and the ratios may be higher than what most expect. I agree- the ratios are already extremely high in the midwest with the current low. If those ratios spread throughout PA before the coastal closes off, eastern PA can see some higher amounts than the models are indicating Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Thru 39 hrs ARW 36 hr total Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I agree- the ratios are already extremely high in the midwest with the current low. If those ratios spread throughout PA before the coastal closes off, eastern PA can see some higher amounts than the models are indicating First: How do you know this? I hope you aren't going by ASOS... Second: Since the higher precip totals are via the coastal, I don't see how this is likely to matter... either you get high ratios with low precip amounts like the midwest because the coastal is late, or you'll get higher precip from the coastal with lower ratios. It won't translate east like the way you are implying... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 NMM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 ;Second: Since the higher precip totals are via the coastal, I don't see how this is likely to matter... either you get high ratios with low precip amounts like the midwest because the coastal is late, or you'll get higher precip from the coastal with lower ratios. It won't translate east like the way you are implying...;;100% agreed. These setups are almost always going to benefit the OKX and BOX CWAs more than they do PHI (save the northern coast of NJ). It's not unheard of to have central and western PA fare better than E PA since the primary/clipper hasn't yet crapped out.Climo is not on the side of folks in E PA here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 AWR total thru 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 48 NMM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 alright the euro is out to hr 6, lets see what it shows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 through hr 12, northern stream is more amplified...the coastal is stronger and a tad to the east of 12z so far...ec hgts are bout the same maybe a little less Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 hr 18 has closed h5 low over central ill...sub 1016 low sse of hse by 75 miles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 hr 24 has a sub 1012 low right on hse...stronger than 12z ...looks like northern stream is a little faster... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 hr 30 has a sub 1004 low about 75 miles east of ac, further west looks.... .1-.25 bridgeport ct to buf to erie to dc then southern delmarva .25-.5 holmdel to abe to mdt to balt to lewes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 hr 36 sub 988 on the eastern tip of li .1-.25 ac to claymont del to bradford pa to bgm .25-.5 ocean co to ttn to easton pa to alb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 hr 36 sub 988 on the eastern tip of li .1-.25 ac to claymont del to bradford pa to bgm .25-.5 ocean co to ttn to easton pa to alb Sounding like the NAM tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 euro came in a lot stronger and a good bit wetter .25-.5 southern delmarva to balt to west of mdt .5-.75 cape may to west chester to montrose pa .75-1 ocean county to sussex co nj Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 euro came in a lot stronger and a good bit wetter .25-.5 southern delmarva to balt to west of mdt .5-.75 cape may to west chester to montrose pa .75-1 ocean county to sussex co nj Thanks for including Baltimore Tombo . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I'll take this run and run with it for my area.. def a west /northwest shift in the qpf field from the 12z Euro.. GFS on it's own.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Really good consensus for the Philly area starting to build now (except for the out to lunch GFS) of .5-.75". Good to see the Euro finally come in wetter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 do u want me to do a map or are u guys fine? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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