canderson Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 tombo is the western gradient on the GFS as tight as the NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 tombo is the western gradient on the GFS as tight as the NAM? Its close to impossible to get a NAM-level gradient on the GFS because of the lower resolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 tombo is the western gradient on the GFS as tight as the NAM? lwhat ray said...gfs smooths the precip out because of the lower resolution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 11, 2011 Author Share Posted January 11, 2011 For what its worth, the GFS is getting a little help with more data: SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS CAMP SPRINGS MD 0253Z TUE JAN 11 2011 00Z NCEP PROD IS ON SCHD WITH NAM TO POST PROCESSING AND THE GFS UNDERWAY. 30 CAN 6 MEX AND 3 CARIB RAOBS WERE ABVL FOR THE GFS. ALSO 8 DROPSONDE AND 13 FLIGHT LEVEL RECON REPORTS OVER THE WESTERN ATLC WERE AVBL FOR THE GFS IN SUPPORT OF THE DEVLPG AND POTENTIALLY MAJOR EAST COAST STORM. RAOB UPDATE... XMR/74794 - DELETED TEMPS 719-690 MB...WET-BULB EFFECT. $$ Well, that's interesting. I really hadn't considered what's been happening downstream. I wonder how much of an effect that will have. IIRC, the Euro should be getting these too, which if it makes a difference wrt to the NAM, will manifest there with its finer resolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Its close to impossible to get a NAM-level gradient on the GFS because of the lower resolution. Did not realize the resolution had that impact. Thanks much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I know you guys will hate to hear this... but the GFS is drier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 For what its worth, the GFS is getting a little help with more data: SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS CAMP SPRINGS MD 0253Z TUE JAN 11 2011 00Z NCEP PROD IS ON SCHD WITH NAM TO POST PROCESSING AND THE GFS UNDERWAY. 30 CAN 6 MEX AND 3 CARIB RAOBS WERE ABVL FOR THE GFS. ALSO 8 DROPSONDE AND 13 FLIGHT LEVEL RECON REPORTS OVER THE WESTERN ATLC WERE AVBL FOR THE GFS IN SUPPORT OF THE DEVLPG AND POTENTIALLY MAJOR EAST COAST STORM. RAOB UPDATE... XMR/74794 - DELETED TEMPS 719-690 MB...WET-BULB EFFECT. $ good data in , good data out Mike will winter storm warnings be issued for ABE in the next few hours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I know you guys will hate to hear this... but the GFS is drier. lol no way can;t be....anyways, are you saying drier than 18z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kingwill Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I have another sneaky feeling the Ensembles will come in Wetter and West.. GFS still not handling the maturation of the storm that well..Maybe tomorrow morning it will finally get it.. Euro will be interesting later but all the short range hi res models will now be just as handy.Even considering this GFS I would still be going for 4-8 around Philly 8-12 much of NJ 12-18 NYC and LI.. Of course a Slight jog west(which still could happen) could put Philly in the 8-12 zone.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 QPF thru 48 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 lol no way can;t be....anyways, are you saying drier than 18z? Sorry, was referencing the 12Z run. Anyway, it looks about the same as 18Z, but I didn't get a close look at the 18Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Sorry, was referencing the 12Z run. Anyway, it looks about the same as 18Z, but I didn't get a close look at the 18Z. where do u get the extracted qpf data already so quick? Or is it through your work? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 MM5 is rolling... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I have another sneaky feeling the Ensembles will come in Wetter and West.. GFS still not handling the maturation of the storm that well..Maybe tomorrow morning it will finally get it.. Euro will be interesting later but all the short range hi res models will now be just as handy.Even considering this GFS I would still be going for 4-8 around Philly 8-12 much of NJ 12-18 NYC and LI.. Of course a Slight jog west(which still could happen) could put Philly in the 8-12 zone.. 4-8 can still happen on this GFS in Philly (or at least, 4 can still happen... only need 13:1 ratios). 12 is a big stretch in NYC though if you are really considering the GFS... you'd need 20:1 ratios with the GFS QPF to get 12" at NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Sorry, was referencing the 12Z run. Anyway, it looks about the same as 18Z, but I didn't get a close look at the 18Z. looks like through twister data gridded qpf scale phl is like .3 or just shy and ttn is like .4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 looks like through twister data gridded qpf scale phl is like .3 or just shy and ttn is like .4 Yeah that's what I got. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Mike will winter storm warnings be issued for ABE in the next few hours? Any headline changes will probably wait until the early morning issuance once all the new guidance has been looked through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I am not really considering the GFS as viable outcome at least QPF wise.. Well I guess we should see what the rest of the 0Z data says first. Well your post did say "even considering this GFS" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SILL Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Any headline changes will probably wait until the early morning issuance once all the new guidance has been looked through. Thanks. Still not sure ABE reaches 6 inches looking at latest model runs, but I will leave it to professionals like you. You do a great job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Any headline changes will probably wait until the early morning issuance once all the new guidance has been looked through. thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Thanks. Still not sure ABE reaches 6 inches looking at latest model runs, but I will leave it to professionals like you. You do a great job. Considering the NAM brings .50 (.46 tech) to ABE..and the NAM at least in low positioning is similar to what the ECM ensembles were...I do not think 6 inches will be hard to achieve at ABE.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Its close to impossible to get a NAM-level gradient on the GFS because of the lower resolution. Exactly! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eamp Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 19:1 ratio for ABE isn't happening. I'd believe a 13:1 and 6" to be closer to the eventual truth. Many meteorologists would agree with you. It looks like these snow "storm totals" are from the Iowa State hourly tables and not from the Bufkit tool. The two tools apply different snow algorithms. If you use the latest Bufkit (version 10.11) tool you get snow totals more aligned with your assessment: 00z NAM IA State Tables Bufkit Toolkit v10.11 Snow Ratios Snow Accumulation/Max Temp ABE 8.7" 5.4" RDG 7.1" 4.6" PHL 10.2" 5.8" ACY 8.0" 7.3" TTN 11.6" 6.7" MDT 5.3" 3.3" ILG 7.3" 3.9" While the actual Bufkit snow totals seem more reasonable, but that doesn't mean much yet. I guess we'll see which technique is more representative for this event by Wednesday. In the future, if someone posts really excessive "Bufkit snow totals", you should ask them if they used the Iowa State tables or the latest Bufkit toolkit snow accumulation totals. That way, after the event, you can properly apply your "lessons learned." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goombatommy Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I thjink ABE can hit the 4 - 7" range. 4" more around Reading/Allentown, with 7" more towards Easton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 FWIW the NOGAPS has come further west again from its 18 Z... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Many meteorologists would agree with you. It looks like these snow "storm totals" are from the Iowa State hourly tables and not from the Bufkit tool. The two tools apply different snow algorithms. If you use the latest Bufkit (version 10.11) tool you get snow totals more aligned with your assessment: 00z NAM IA State Tables Bufkit Toolkit v10.11 Snow Ratios Snow Accumulation/Max Temp ABE 8.7" 5.4" RDG 7.1" 4.6" PHL 10.2" 5.8" ACY 8.0" 7.3" TTN 11.6" 6.7" MDT 5.3" 3.3" ILG 7.3" 3.9" While the actual Bufkit snow totals seem more reasonable, but that doesn't mean much yet. I guess we'll see which technique is more representative for this event by Wednesday. In the future, if someone posts really excessive "Bufkit snow totals", you should ask them if they used the Iowa State tables or the latest Bufkit toolkit snow accumulation totals. That way, after the event, you can properly apply your "lessons learned." Its the cobb method from Bufkit warehouse http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/bufkit.html I'm not vouching for its accuracy anymore than others do when the post the clown maps from Wxcaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Its the cobb method from Bufkit warehouse http://www.meteor.ia...kit/bufkit.html I'm not vouching for its accuracy anymore than others do when the post the clown maps from Wxcaster. Well, some of the clown maps are based more in reality than others... I think the one that was posted here this evening made sense based on QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ray8002 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 GGEM looks very similar to the NAM.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 ggem a good bit wetter than 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Suny MM5 @ 30 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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