Sunny and Warm Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I'm trying to figure out what ARW3 sees that no other iteration does. I'll take it though. Love the hand depicted on RSM5. Funky solution there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 RGEM came more in line with the NAM/SREFs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Folks we're now within 24hrs of event and the NAM held pat in our area. Lock it up. Up to 8" in far eastern PA, closer to 4-5" in western sections (Chester, montco) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Folks we're now within 24hrs of event and the NAM held pat in our area. Lock it up. Up to 8" in far eastern PA, closer to 4-5" in western sections (Chester, montco) agreed. Looks like the NAM may have won this battle, along with the mesoscale models. I smell capitulation later this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Don't usually see a map like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atlas Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 RGEM is very pretty, lends credibility to the nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 agreed. Looks like the NAM may have won this battle, along with the mesoscale models. I smell capitulation later this evening. I wouldn't say that. Last night the meso's had widespread 1"+ for the Del Valley. Most of them have backed off from that solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I wouldn't say that. Last night the meso's had widespread 1"+ for the Del Valley. Most of them have backed off from that solution. it was also past 48 hrs. What we can gather which we already knew, nam under 48 is damn good. nam outside 48hrs is like the eagles o line horrible. I bet you will see the arw come in juicy again tonight and get ppl honking there tootles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I wouldn't say that. Last night the meso's had widespread 1"+ for the Del Valley. Most of them have backed off from that solution. Ray, I was referring to the westward position of the low track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 00z NAM bufkit ABE- 8.7" RDG 7.1" PHL 10.2" AVY 8" TTN 11.6" MDT 5.3" ILG 7.3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldstar Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 00z NAM bufkit ABE- 8.7" RDG 7.1" PHL 10.2" AVY 8" TTN 11.6" MDT 5.3" ILG 7.3" ABE- 8.7" That would be truly amazing, hope it verifies, anyone been looking at the radar returns? These systems look all juiced up and ready to be squeezed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 00z NAM bufkit ABE- 8.7" RDG 7.1" PHL 10.2" AVY 8" TTN 11.6" MDT 5.3" ILG 7.3" 18:1 ratio at TTN... OK sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 GFS has initialized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I doubt anybody sees ratios as high as depicted on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 00z NAM bufkit ABE- 8.7" RDG 7.1" PHL 10.2" AVY 8" TTN 11.6" MDT 5.3" ILG 7.3" 19:1 ratio for ABE isn't happening. I'd believe a 13:1 and 6" to be closer to the eventual truth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Ray, I was referring to the westward position of the low track. is that what you really care about? Or is it how much snow falls? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 18:1 ratio at TTN... OK sure no wind, maybe 40:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Are these Bufkit numbers ever close to reality? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I have to say, for my backyard, the guidance has been rather consistent with the idea of a 4 to 6" snowfall for a few days now. Much better than some of those wild swings where you go from 10" to 2" in one model cycle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 00z NAM bufkit ABE- 8.7" RDG 7.1" PHL 10.2" AVY 8" TTN 11.6" MDT 5.3" ILG 7.3" How reliable is the BUFKIT in this time frame? I remember some insane totals last year for DC, Baltimore, and Philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 is that what you really care about? Or is it how much snow falls? Oh, I care about the snow, but I was talking about low position. West and weak is my mantra in the next 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I have to say, for my backyard, the guidance has been rather consistent with the idea of a 4 to 6" snowfall for a few days now. Much better than some of those wild swings where you go from 10" to 2" in one model cycle. Yup, this has been a fairly low stress storm forecast since about Saturday for the Delaware Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 gfs continues the better look at h5...at hr 21 storm is alittle sw of 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Yup, this has been a fairly low stress storm forecast since about Saturday for the Delaware Valley. True. I called 6-10" for the Trenton area yesterday afternoon and am still comfortable with that 30 hours later... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 gfs is going to come in wetter, but no where near the nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 gfs is going to come in wetter, but no where near the nam 12Z GFS had 0.49" for TTN while the NAM had 0.67". That's already pretty close if you ask me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 That's all we needed to see on the GFS tonight. A step towards the short-range and mesoscale models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 12Z GFS had 0.49" for TTN while the NAM had 0.67". That's already pretty close if you ask me. back here yes, but places like nyc who are 1 inch on the nam are like .6 on the gfs...and acy which was .84 is prob .45 on gfs thats pretty large spread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 back here yes, but places like nyc who are 1 inch on the nam are like .6 on the gfs...and acy which was .84 is prob .45 on gfs thats pretty large spread Nah, actually ACY was 0.66" on the GFS. Again, not that far off. A bit more spread at NYC... don't recall what 12Z NAM had there but 0Z has 0.90" versus 0.66" on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 For what its worth, the GFS is getting a little help with more data: SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS CAMP SPRINGS MD 0253Z TUE JAN 11 2011 00Z NCEP PROD IS ON SCHD WITH NAM TO POST PROCESSING AND THE GFS UNDERWAY. 30 CAN 6 MEX AND 3 CARIB RAOBS WERE ABVL FOR THE GFS. ALSO 8 DROPSONDE AND 13 FLIGHT LEVEL RECON REPORTS OVER THE WESTERN ATLC WERE AVBL FOR THE GFS IN SUPPORT OF THE DEVLPG AND POTENTIALLY MAJOR EAST COAST STORM. RAOB UPDATE... XMR/74794 - DELETED TEMPS 719-690 MB...WET-BULB EFFECT. $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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