famartin Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 How does wind kill ratios Breaks apart the dendrites and allows the snow to compact a lot more upon reaching the ground... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 LOL,no, I got screwed in Newark, DE where we were perhaps 25 mi from a non-moving deformation band. Snowed lightly all day and we got a whopping 3", perhaps less. This storm might also have an unforgiving gradient rapidly getting worse to the S&W of PHL. Us in Delco might do well. But in S/W chester county into MD might see massive drop-offs in amounts even into New Castle DE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 -8 isotherm at 850 crashes into thr far NW burbs from hrs 30 thru 33, there is strong upward motion for a time in the area at 700, ww'll have some very high ratios at the end of the precip sheild Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Breaks apart the dendrites and allows the snow to compact a lot more upon reaching the ground... So it doesn't effect qpf but the density increases. Makes sense Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 High Res NAM is out... http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM212/NAM212_KTTN.txt 0.01" less than 12Z at TTN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 High Res NAM is out... http://68.226.77.253...NAM212_KTTN.txt 0.01" less than 12Z at TTN. hmm something is up with that link. Not working. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 hmm something is up with that link. Not working. works for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 hmm something is up with that link. Not working. Interesting, it worked just a minute ago for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 works for me Refresh it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 works for me Same here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Interesting, it worked just a minute ago for me. And of course, now its working fine, my bad guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 qpf totals from nam abe .46 thv .27 lns .36 pne .66 phl .61 ilg .43 acy .84 smq .56 mil .68 dov .60 dyl .57 nxx .59 lom .58 ttn .66 ptw .49 mdt .29 mpo .49 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 qpf totals from nam abe .46 thv .27 lns .36 pne .66 phl .61 ilg .43 acy .84 smq .56 mil .68 dov .60 dyl .57 nxx .59 lom .58 ttn .66 ptw .49 mpo .49 Tombo was doing a mass download, that's why it didn't work Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Mil should be Miv? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 And of course, now its working fine, my bad guys. No dude I had a problem in Ray's initial post too. Funny part is when I clicked on Ray's quote in your reply it worked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 High Res NAM is out... http://68.226.77.253...NAM212_KTTN.txt 0.01" less than 12Z at TTN. qpf totals from nam abe .46 thv .27 lns .36 pne .66 phl .61 ilg .43 acy .84 smq .56 mil .68 dov .60 dyl .57 nxx .59 lom .58 ttn .66 ptw .49 mdt .29 mpo .49 uh...my calculator tells me that according to the first link TTN sees closer to 1.0"...which is it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 uh...my calculator tells me that according to the first link TTN sees closer to 1.0"...which is it? You're counting hour 30 twice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 uh...my calculator tells me that according to the first link TTN sees closer to 1.0"...which is it? Station ID: KTTN Lat: 40.27 Long: -74.81 Elevation: 64.0 NAM Model Run: 0Z JAN 11, 2011 Forecast Hours: 0hr 3hr 6hr 9hr 12hr 15hr 18hr 21hr 24hr 27hr 30hr Sfc Prs(mb): 1018.1 1017.8 1018.1 1017.5 1018.0 1017.4 1016.2 1012.7 1010.7 1007.1 1003.0 Mean SLP (mb): 1025.3 1024.7 1025.5 1024.9 1025.2 1024.8 1023.1 1019.9 1017.6 1014.1 1009.7 2m agl Tmp (F): 25.1 21.2 18.0 16.7 19.1 24.7 29.5 29.4 28.5 29.3 29.5 2m AGL Dewpt(F): 15.5 15.6 15.1 14.0 16.6 21.2 23.0 26.8 27.4 28.7 28.5 2m agl RH (%): 66 79 88 89 90 86 76 90 96 98 96 10m agl W Dir: 312 327 332 358 1 40 82 90 81 33 5 10m agl Spd(kt): 6 6 5 5 5 4 3 4 5 6 8 3hr Precip (in): 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.24 AccumPrecip(in): 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.29 Precip H20 (in): 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 Best LI (C): 17.6 17.1 17.1 16.9 17.4 17.2 16.9 17.9 12.9 8.8 10.4 700mb VV(-ub/s): -1.8 -1.4 -1.4 0.7 -2.1 0.5 -0.9 -0.9 0.4 5.8 11.9 Thk1000-500mb(m)5337.2 5338.1 5347.3 5354.8 5336.8 5341.2 5337.7 5340.1 5347.0 5335.1 5323.8 Thk1000-850mb(m)1285.1 1285.1 1285.2 1286.2 1281.2 1282.0 1281.8 1283.1 1284.3 1287.5 1285.8 Thk850-700mb(m):1509.0 1510.8 1515.9 1522.9 1516.9 1517.2 1519.6 1521.4 1527.3 1523.1 1508.8 Heat Index (F): 25 21 18 17 19 25 30 29 28 29 30 <snip> Forecast Hours: 30hr 33hr 36hr 39hr 42hr 45hr 48hr 51hr 54hr 57hr 60hr Sfc Prs(mb): 1003.0 998.0 997.7 997.5 996.6 997.1 1000.9 1002.9 1004.7 1006.3 1009.5 Mean SLP (mb): 1009.7 1005.0 1004.7 1004.4 1003.6 1004.1 1007.7 1010.3 1011.7 1013.6 1016.6 2m agl Tmp (F): 29.5 29.2 28.0 30.3 31.2 31.3 26.0 24.0 23.2 21.5 19.0 2m AGL Dewpt(F): 28.5 28.3 26.6 27.2 27.1 28.9 19.5 17.6 16.8 15.3 13.0 2m agl RH (%): 96 96 94 88 85 90 76 76 76 77 77 10m agl W Dir: 5 339 312 276 275 288 302 303 302 303 308 10m agl Spd(kt): 8 11 10 11 13 12 16 15 15 15 14 3hr Precip (in): 0.24 0.26 0.10 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 AccumPrecip(in): 0.29 0.55 0.65 0.66 0.66 0.66 0.66 0.66 0.66 0.66 0.66 Precip H20 (in): 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 Best LI (C): 10.4 9.1 11.6 10.7 11.7 11.6 14.3 15.6 14.4 14.2 13.1 700mb VV(-ub/s): 11.9 2.7 -1.9 -2.8 -0.8 -2.3 -1.2 -0.9 -1.6 -1.7 -2.8 Thk1000-500mb(m)5323.8 5278.4 5218.7 5197.7 5193.2 5196.2 5199.0 5210.0 5224.2 5235.0 5241.7 Thk1000-850mb(m)1285.8 1282.3 1273.3 1270.3 1272.9 1273.4 1261.2 1256.9 1258.4 1261.3 1262.6 Thk850-700mb(m):1508.8 1493.5 1482.1 1478.5 1472.3 1468.7 1471.9 1475.8 1481.6 1487.9 1491.2 Heat Index (F): 30 29 28 30 31 31 26 24 23 21 19 Where do you get 1" from? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldstar Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Any indication that this is the farthest west this will trend, or could this thing still be modeled slightly further east? Us weenies along the Northeast extension want some love, and we are missing out by like 30 miles! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 You're counting hour 30 twice. that would be it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 comparrison between 0z and 18z 0z 18z +/- abe .46...... .55 -.09 thv .27.... .37 -.1 lns .36.... .47 -.11 pne .66.... .64 +2 phl .61.... .58 +.03 ilg .43... .5 - .07 acy .84... .76 +.08 smq .56.... .69 -.13 mil .68.... .63 +.05 dov .60... .57 +.03 dyl .57... .61 -.04 nxx .59.... .6 -.01 lom .58... .58 ttn .66... .69 -.03 ptw .49... .56 -.07 mpo .49... .62 -.13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Any indication that this is the farthest west this will trend, or could this thing still be modeled slightly further east? Us weenies along the Northeast extension want some love, and we are missing out by like 30 miles! It did trend west, but also got stronger which tightened up the gradient. I don't think any amount of westward movement can save us at this point. It is what it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 comparrison between 0z and 18z 0z 18z +/- abe .46...... .55 -.11 thv .27.... .37 -.1 lns .36.... .47 -.09 pne .66.... .64 +2 phl .61.... .58 +3 ilg .43... .5 - .07 acy .84... .76 +.08 smq .56.... .69 -.13 mil .68.... .63 +.05 dov .60... .57 +.03 dyl .57... .61 -.04 nxx .59.... .6 -.01 lom .58... .58 ttn .66... .69 -.03 ptw .49... .56 -.07 mpo .49... .62 -.13 abe .46...... .55 -.11 Don't quit your day job to be a math teacher Tom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 abe .46...... .55 -.11 Don't quit your day job to be a math teacher Tom. lol whoops Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 qpf totals from nam abe .46 thv .27 lns .36 pne .66 phl .61 ilg .43 acy .84 smq .56 mil .68 dov .60 dyl .57 nxx .59 lom .58 ttn .66 ptw .49 mdt .29 mpo .49 Not bad at all really.......we (eastern PA) were never going to see 10+" from this event, maybe with 12-15:1 ratios and a few intense bands some sports will end up with 8 or 9 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 00z NAM clown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 It did trend west, but also got stronger which tightened up the gradient. I don't think any amount of westward movement can save us at this point. It is what it is. It ain't over until the bovine sings. The NAM calls for a 26mb bombing in less than 15 hours. That's a lot. If it were to maintain its current track and be a little weaker, you and I would be in the game for a higher amount. I think! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Latest Wxsim continues to be steady with .50" of precip....with higher ratios still see a 5 to 7" event in the NW Philly burbs. I expect the GFS will come in a tad wetter than 18z and we will be getting closer to consensus. Well that is until we begin the radar hallucinations (or in a Miller and the where the heck is the backfill on the radar comments.... Should be an interesting evening tomorrow. I have a very strong suspicion there will be some surprises. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Shouldn't TTN be + 03? you're mixing columns. It's a negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 21z srefs indiv precip tot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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