foggy Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Hmmm. I'm wondering if the models are going to continue to move the coastal development west to the point where p-type issues start becoming a factor for the Jersey coastline? Temps to the southern coast look a little hinky for awhile. D Mt Holly mentioned a couple of hours ago there is a chance of rain mixing w/ snow early in the event for the coast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 with the 18z ens so far west, I have a feeling the 0z will be much nicer. Agreed. Its nice to see us finally get in the dark blue for the gfs ensembles! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Hi Greg, We will see...I was a little concerned when I saw Hurricane S only post 2 to 4" for our area....but I think he may need to raise those amounts later tonight after the 0z runs. Hope all else is well! Paul Looks to be a nice call Paul. Guidance appears to be converging on a decent event here with 6"+ with ratios. Not too often we get 3 accumulating snow events in the span of 1 week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Every single GFS member is farther west than the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Hi Greg, We will see...I was a little concerned when I saw Hurricane S only post 2 to 4" for our area....but I think he may need to raise those amounts later tonight after the 0z runs. Hope all else is well! Paul hes 3-5 now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 snow growth still looks very good for phl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 hes 3-5 now He change from 5 to 6 PM? He had 2-4 in the western burbs just before 6 PM and the video still has it. http://www.nbcphiladelphia.com/weather/video/EarthWatch_Forecast__How_Much_Snow___When_Will_It_Hit__Philadelphia-113238799.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 He change from 5 to 6 PM? He had 2-4 in the western burbs just before 6 PM and the video still has it. http://www.nbcphilad...-113238799.html nvm your right, i thought i saw 3-5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Wxsim with 18z data continues to have total qpf of 0.52" for NW Chesco so a 5 - 7" snowfall still appears possible....will be very interesting to see 0z data and see if a little more westward shift continues For now it has accumulating snow not arriving till 7pm with heavy snow between 9pm and 1am then moderate for a couple hours and light snow till around 6am and then ending. Paul www.chescowx.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
unknown Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 RUC is a bit slower with the storm compared to NAM NAM RUC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AbsoluteVorticity Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 RUC is crap, especially past 9 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 RUC is crap, especially past 9 hours. +1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 RUC is crap, especially past 9 hours. his map is hr 1 though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snitki2 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 HM is saying NAM is handling the current situation better than the GFS. Especially over the Kansas area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 HM is saying NAM is handling the current situation better than the GFS. Especially over the Kansas area. Which HM? Henry Margusity or the HM on the forum? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 HM is saying NAM is handling the current situation better than the GFS. Especially over the Kansas area. ugh. u mean henry margusity? there is a well-respected met on this board by the name of HM who does not affiliate with henry M, fyi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snitki2 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Margusity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcutter Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Margusity please do not call him HM.......that is reserved here for someone of much higher esteem.............thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AbsoluteVorticity Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 his map is hr 1 though true, regardless not sure why he wouldn't just compare them to current obs/radar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 21z srefs continue to amplify the northern stream and have a stronger h5 low...based on that wouldn't surprise me if they come in a little wetter or the same as 15z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 21z srefs continue to amplify the northern stream and have a stronger h5 low...based on that wouldn't surprise me if they come in a little wetter or the same as 15z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 SREFs shifted the .5" QPF line about 25 miles west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 through hr 15 nam is less amplified with the northern stream and not as strong with the h5...its does look a little faster with the northern stream Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 through hr 21 continues the same, but the northern stream is faster which may compensate for the less amplified trof...through hr 21 the low os closer to hse than 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 through hr 24, the low is stronger than 18z, also alittle further west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 through hr 27, the low is a good bit stronger, sub 1008, where as 18z was sub 1012....mod precip starting to break out down by dc and balt... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 hr 30 has mdt to hvy precip from west of lns to ukt on south through delmarva...low is sub 1004, so a good bit stornger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 CCB developing at 30, looks good for everybody, pretty similar to 18z at the surface Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 hr 33 continued mdt to hvy for phl and se pa....the gradient is tighter prob cause the low is more defined and stronger...central jerz through nyc getting hit good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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