LVblizzard Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 GFS H5 looks similar but the surface low is a good bit east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 this run is going to be a lot drier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 for being only 30 hours out, the differences between the nam and gfs at hour 30 is pretty large Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest stormchaser Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 This run of the 18z GFS is going to cause many to go cliff jumping right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 People like me here in the southern Poconos may benefit more than an inch or two. Don't you think? D I live in the southern pocono region too but I dont think there'd be much of a variant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 This run of the 18z GFS is going to cause many to go cliff jumping right now Meh, QPF about the same for eastern PA .0.25"-0.45" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 This run of the 18z GFS is going to cause many to go cliff jumping right now It's getting close to now cast time, the set up looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest stormchaser Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 It's getting close to now cast time, the set up looks good. Agree, a blend of data seems to be best right now. I think this setup proves to be a bit more dynamic then the 18z GFS would lead you to believe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Just in from HPC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Agree, a blend of data seems to be best right now. I think this setup proves to be a bit more dynamic then the 18z GFS would lead you to believe I believe that is what Tony was saying in the AFD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 if the same depiction at h5 on the 18z gfs is on 0z, you will see the low further west at 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I will take this. At least we get snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 heres the hpc 12z depiction of qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I agree...as I have said all day I see this trending slightly NW this evening and continuing during the day tomorrow...nice hit for all. Great winter so far...just had my little girl out for some sledding beautiful night! Current Clear 25.3 Snow cover 2" if the same depiction at h5 on the 18z gfs is on 0z, you will see the low further west at 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 One thing that should lift spirits of those NW of the main action (Berks Lehigh area) should be that -8 at 850 crashing in with the upward motion, snow ratios will be very high for a time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 http://www.meteo.psu..._18z/jloop.html Looks good! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dssbss Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 One thing that should lift spirits of those NW of the main action (Berks Lehigh area) should be that -8 at 850 crashing in with the upward motion, snow ratios will be very high for a time Woohoo...I'm expecting 4 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 wow, 18z gfs ens are way tucked into the coast ala nam... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 gfs ens mean .5-.75 from elkton md to scranton pa....75-1 starts at trenton Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 gfs ens make more sense given the improvements at h5 to have this further west than what the 18z op shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 the 12z naefs, look very much like the srefs.. with .5 qpf avg... the time frame before this has about 1mm for phl south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 gfs ens mean .5-.75 from elkton md to scranton pa....75-1 starts at trenton Im hoping this comes true... Any meteorological reasoning as to why this is happening at this time? Any new data being ingested into the models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 gfs ens mean .5-.75 from elkton md to scranton pa....75-1 starts at trenton Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Im hoping this comes true... Any meteorological reasoning as to why this is happening at this time? Any new data being ingested into the models? Its because it continues to trend deeper with the northern stream and closing off the h5 faster. The more amplified that trof is its going to back more hgts closer to the coast leading to a closer track. Also, you want the h5 to maintain its speed and transfer faster thus causing the low to intensify quicker, more precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PoconoD Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Hmmm. I'm wondering if the models are going to continue to move the coastal development west to the point where p-type issues start becoming a factor for the Jersey coastline? Temps to the southern coast look a little hinky for awhile. D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowtrain Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I like that. Looks to intensify sooner which gets it closer to the coast as well as further south. Very nice for us PHL folk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowtrain Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I like that. Looks to intensify sooner which gets it closer to the coast as well as further south. Very nice for us PHL folk. Just imagine if we had a nice 1036mb H north of the lakes too! One can dream! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Just imagine if we had a nice 1036mb H north of the lakes too! One can dream! no, just imagine if the h5 low was further south and caught this off delmarva.... KABOOM.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 with the 18z ens so far west, I have a feeling the 0z will be much nicer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White_Mtn_Wx Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I agree...as I have said all day I see this trending slightly NW this evening and continuing during the day tomorrow...nice hit for all. Great winter so far...just had my little girl out for some sledding beautiful night! Current Clear 25.3 Snow cover 2" Looks to be a nice call Paul. Guidance appears to be converging on a decent event here with 6"+ with ratios. Not too often we get 3 accumulating snow events in the span of 1 week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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