Noreaster07 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 On 1/11/2011 at 6:02 AM, tombo82685 said: euro came in a lot stronger and a good bit wetter .25-.5 southern delmarva to balt to west of mdt .5-.75 cape may to west chester to montrose pa .75-1 ocean county to sussex co nj Basically following the NE ext of the TPK? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 On 1/11/2011 at 6:06 AM, tombo82685 said: do u want me to do a map or are u guys fine? If you could i would appreciate a map for ole times sake! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 On 1/11/2011 at 6:06 AM, tombo82685 said: do u want me to do a map or are u guys fine? Hate to be a pain in your ass but .25-.50 is very broad, do you have a way of getting exact QPF numbers for BWI. Thanks in advance Tombo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goombatommy Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 On 1/11/2011 at 6:07 AM, jlewis1111 said: tombo how much for ric Wrong thread man. Wrong forum too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 On 1/11/2011 at 6:07 AM, jlewis1111 said: tombo how much for ric .1-.15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 On 1/11/2011 at 6:09 AM, ravensrule said: Hate to be a pain in your ass but .25-.50 is very broad, do you have a way of getting exact QPF numbers for BWI. Thanks in advance Tombo. your right inside the .25 line id say your around .3...im gonna do a map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 On 1/11/2011 at 6:06 AM, jrodd321 said: Really good consensus for the Philly area starting to build now (except for the out to lunch GFS) of .5-.75". Good to see the Euro finally come in wetter. well we hope it is out to lunch, if i recall, the gfs has been excellent inside 48 hours recently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 lgt green .1-.25 dark green .25-.5 blue .5-.75 purple .75-1 red 1+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Looking at the NMM, it shows what appears to be another inverted trough type of QPF output. MM5 is actually similar but with more precip. Any thoughts or is it just model junk? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rib Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I can finally say it. The Americanwx WRF is very close to the coast, well west of the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 On 1/11/2011 at 6:20 AM, Yes_Probably_Maybe_No said: Looking at the NMM, it shows what appears to be another inverted trough type of QPF output. MM5 is actually similar. Any thoughts or is it just model junk? the nmm looks like junk on the qpf thing...looks like something got messed up...its has that tail like feature all the way through wva lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 On 1/11/2011 at 6:20 AM, Rib said: I can finally say it. The Americanwx WRF is very close to the coast, well west of the GFS. Link, if you please? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rib Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 On 1/11/2011 at 6:21 AM, Nikolai said: Link, if you please? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 On 1/11/2011 at 6:23 AM, Rib said: do u have a qpf map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 On 1/11/2011 at 6:21 AM, Nikolai said: Link, if you please? WRF ARW http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/hiresw/00/model_m.shtml WRF NMM http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/hiresw/00/model_l.shtml Total prceip for these was posted a couple pages back but their just coming out now on ncep's site Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rib Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 models.americanwx.com Try it out guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 On 1/11/2011 at 6:26 AM, Yes_Probably_Maybe_No said: So model junk it is. It's a shame because the MM5 shows roughly 50mm in Philly, which is equal to approx. 2 inches of QPF. One can only dream... im not saying the mm5 is, that looks better..but look at the nmm qpf map doesnt it look weird to u...like look down in lower del with the qpf bombs then the tail like features Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 On 1/11/2011 at 6:28 AM, tombo82685 said: im not saying the mm5 is, that looks better..but look at the nmm qpf map doesnt it look weird to u...like look down in lower del with the qpf bombs then the tail like features if you watch the loop it appears that there is a technical error and as the precip moves through virginia into md just west of dc it doesn't show anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 The 4 km SPC WRF shows nicely the explosion of the snow shield as the mid level forcing really gets going (check out the simulated radar reflectivity). http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mpyle/cent4km/conus/00/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 On 1/11/2011 at 6:33 AM, MD Snow said: if you watch the loop it appears that there is a technical error and as the precip moves through virginia into md just west of dc it doesn't show anything. yup exactly what i mean, its just messed up lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 ARW Clown map with ratios Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 On 1/11/2011 at 6:28 AM, tombo82685 said: im not saying the mm5 is, that looks better..but look at the nmm qpf map doesnt it look weird to u...like look down in lower del with the qpf bombs then the tail like features Yeah I see what you're saying with those QPF streaks. I'm still somewhat interested in that QPF wedge that they both show in our area. We'll see how it goes I guess... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 On 1/11/2011 at 6:35 AM, Noreaster07 said: ARW Clown map with ratios that looks exactly like the euro except in our area push that back further east, but the qpf bomb is the same on the euro over nyc and just east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 the euro post 240 is prob a brutally cold shot, huge pna ridge poking into alaska pv dropping south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 On 1/11/2011 at 6:35 AM, Yes_Probably_Maybe_No said: Yeah I see what you're saying with those QPF streaks. I'm still somewhat interested in that QPF wedge that they both show in our area. We'll see how it goes I guess... nvm I was looking at the 24 hour accumulated precip to only 36 on the MM5, but through 48 it smoothes out. It's egregiously overdone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 heres the 0z jma total qpf... .5-.75 for most of the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 anyone staying up tonight or am i going to have a convo with myself tonight lol? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 On 1/11/2011 at 7:10 AM, tombo82685 said: anyone staying up tonight or am i going to have a convo with myself tonight lol? LOL i am here waiting on the next set of models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 On 1/11/2011 at 7:11 AM, atownwxwatcher said: LOL i am here waiting on the next set of models same here, looks like its just you and i lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 On 1/11/2011 at 7:15 AM, tombo82685 said: same here, looks like its just you and i lol Nope...I'm here until the 6z NAM is done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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