am19psu Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 We're splitting them up again, guys, because it looks like we're going to get less and have a lower chance of getting jackpotted than NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 We're splitting them up again, guys, because it looks like we're going to get less and have a lower chance of getting jackpotted than NYC. I guess if you live in TTN you will have to keep a leg in each thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I guess if you live in TTN you will have to keep a leg in each thread. And a snowboot on the one closer to NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethlehemBlizzard Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I don't post much, but I read ALL THE TIME in an effort to educate myself. Truth be told, I wish these threads were split all of the time. Also, I wish everyone had to list their location so that we knew where people meant when they say things like "Looks like I'm in the jackpot" or "This sucks for my area." Just saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ParanormalWx Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I stated yesterday (on FB) that I'm going with 3-6" in the LV with more east in Jersey, of course. That being said, I can easily see how the LV gets 1-2". The models like to push these coastal storms slightly east within 48 hours the past few years and that happened with the GFS and ECMWF along with most short range models with the Boxing day blizzard. I think Am has the right idea with what he's been saying. Just my 2 cents Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 10, 2011 Author Share Posted January 10, 2011 3z SREF plumes have a mean of 5" for PHL with a spread from 2-8". http://www.spc.nssl.noaa.gov/exper/sref/plume/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 The latest Wxsim continues to look excellent for yet another nice storm in the NW Philly burbs. Through today we are 38% above normal snow to date and this looks to increase by Wed AM. I have a strong suspicion I will need to increase these amounts north and west of Philly a little later today but for now. Wxsim module has light snow beginning around 3:30pm tomorrow afternoon; Moderate Snow from 830p to 11pm then Heavy Snow till 1am...snow will taper to flurries by 6am. Total Snowfall across the area 3" to 5" Paul www.chescowx.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Interesting OBS point from Joe Bastardi this morning....something to watch for a shift to the west and some mixing issues for Jersey Shore and Long Island. "The models have the storm passing east of Saint Simon Islands, but winds are turning into the southeast. Hatteras is obviously not in the game yet, but will be tomorrow and a track near or inside hatteras will mean the coastal low will deepen up further west. That would mean greater low level convergence intersecting with the upper divergence and a rapid ramp up of snow rates later tomorrow and tomorrow night, along with more snow further west, and the chance of the change to rain in the coastal areas that got pounded with the blizzard" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 We're splitting them up again, guys, because it looks like we're going to get less and have a lower chance of getting jackpotted than NYC. I think we will do perfectly fine, you sound pessimistic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 At 30, the NAM looks like 0z at the surface but looks like 6z at H5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Looks like the NAM wants to go east of 0z and west of 6z going by hour 42. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goombatommy Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 three years ago a 4-8" storm like the one mount holly has out would have this board soiling themselves with excitement. Now, they're not enthused lol. Well, Places like Philly east and north will fare well. It's just the typical "areas" north and west of the city they are referring too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Looks like the NAM wants to go east of 0z and west of 6z going by hour 42. Still a nice explosion of QPF across Eastern PA and NJ...the NAM looks pretty good to this point for NJ...and should cut down on the mix issue somewhat along parts of the SNJ coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 nam threw 36hr at 500mb has hug h5 low over IL/IN/OH. im not able make comparisons with 6z or 0z but it looks ok. you can see heights rising along the EC, energry transfering over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Well, Places like Philly east and north will fare well. It's just the typical "areas" north and west of the city they are referring too. We're (and I'm N & W) not getting bullseye snows but several inches is still a rather good event in a Nina winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Thru 48, the low is about 40-50 miles east...qpf explodes a bit quicker...major snows at NJ Shore...Philly does well (probably 6"+) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 NAM keeping hope alive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RkTec Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I can't view any models on my ipad (I don't even use a computer anymore really). Do any of the models suggest that any banding will not make it past the delaware river? They didn't specify which in their AFD. This is what Mt. Holly had in their 8:15 a.m. AFD RE: banding... "THE BEST BANDING POTENTIAL APPEARS AS THOUGH IT WILL FORM FROM JUST WEST OF THE PARKWAY ON NEW JERSEY TO JUST EAST OF I-95. HOWEVER...SINCE SOME OF THE DETAILS OF THE TRACKS OF THE SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL CIRCULATIONS ARE STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...THIS AREA COULD SLIDE EAST OR WEST." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 NAM on snow: 4"+ Scranton to Lebanon to Baltimore to Salisbury MD and east. 8"+ Newburgh NY to Trenton to AC and east. 12"+ Grazes NJ Shore from LBI on north to Suburban LI on east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 We're (and I'm N & W) not getting bullseye snows but several inches is still a rather good event in a Nina winter. Exactly. I think we can't be too greedy these days. I expected less than a few days with snow on the ground the entire winter. There has been snow (while small amounts) on the ground on and off since Christmas. Honestly, if we have 8 inches of snow by Wednesday on the ground, its not a whole of heck of alot different to me, then say 14 inches. Snow is snow. Be happy we are getting another dose. 12Z Nam better than 6z QPFwise, a little less than 00z. All in all, a nice shot of snow Tuesday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 NAM loves to keep the carrot dangling for us. Would love to see the GFS come around a little more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 850 0 line just grazes Cape May at hour 39...this is mostly frozen (perhaps sleet/zr mixing in if there's a warm nose) at NJ Shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Even the NAM doesn't support more than 10 inches (with good ratios) across eastern PA. I'll go with 3-6" from Scranton/Reading/Lancaster eastward to the Delaware River and 6-10" east of there. Anything over those ranges in either locale I'll consider a bonus for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 NAM gives 2.0+ qpf to central and eastern LI . BULLSEYE!!! edit: real tight gradient. looks like nam says band forms rite down the gsp and to the NE. CPK looks like 1.0+ qpf and you can double that as you head east on LI. eastern LI might have mixing issues but this thing looks to collapse real fast and bomb out. Yeah, a few hours of sleet or rain could result in 6-8 inches of less snow across the eastern half of Long Island. I saw that many times growing up.....its going to be a close call out there. That's why part of me is happy with a 100% chance of an all (light to moderate) snow storm here in eastern PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 FWIW, the NAM is coming in a lot more realistic than last night and in line (although still more aggressive) than GFS and Euro. QPF: PHL 0.65 ABE 0.52 RDG 0.45 MIV 0.70 ACY 0.88 BLM 1.20 ILG 0.57 TTN 0.71 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Don't understand why the nam's off sounding runs go so dry or better questioned why are the off sounding run tracks farther offshore. Wet/drier/wetter/drier/wetter again. Sref trend is slightly drier. BTW Thank-you for splitting the threads via wfo(s) lines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 10, 2011 Author Share Posted January 10, 2011 Don't understand why the nam's off sounding runs go so dry or better questioned why are the off sounding run tracks farther offshore. Wet/drier/wetter/drier/wetter again. Sref trend is slightly drier. BTW Thank-you for splitting the threads via wfo(s) lines. Yeah, the NAM is very unstable right now, so that's why I'm weighting it less. It doesn't make a lot of sense to me right now. I figured if I put the WFOs in the subtitle we'd get far fewer questions about where to post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Don't understand why the nam's off sounding runs go so dry or better questioned why are the off sounding run tracks farther offshore. Wet/drier/wetter/drier/wetter again. Sref trend is slightly drier. BTW Thank-you for splitting the threads via wfo(s) lines. Forecasting the banding must be extremely hard this far out. The 12/26 storm was a good example , I live on the Trenton Hamilton border and Ray's(famartin) parents live in Ewing, during that storm Ray received around 10"+ or-, while I had around 14, the 2 locations are about 5 miles apart as the crow flies. This was also evident in the Feb storm last year. The difference was being in the banding or just out of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Any word on the SREFs? I think the 03z were a bit weaker but still good, no? Meanwhile, if we get the GFS suface depiction to catch up to it closing off the h5 low earlier then we're in business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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