StormSC Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Can someone show me a map that shows where the low is that is dying out? Then show me where the new low is suppose to form in the atlantic? Is the new low forming yet? If so, is it closer to the coast or what? Thank you to anyone who can help me understand! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Everyone, the storm is doing almost EXACTLY what it has been progged to do for DAYS! The best lift, thus, precip don't move north of the southern areas (n GA, SC, s/sw NC) until this AFTERNOON and evening. Yes, there is a lot of dry air to overcome but this was forecast. I know it's painful to watch but you have to have patience. In fact, it's pleasant to see the snow hit the totals many on here were saying. I agree with everything you say except by this evening their will not be any precip to move north except along the coastal plain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Everyone, the storm is doing almost EXACTLY what it has been progged to do for DAYS! The best lift, thus, precip don't move north of the southern areas (n GA, SC, s/sw NC) until this AFTERNOON and evening. Yes, there is a lot of dry air to overcome but this was forecast. I know it's painful to watch but you have to have patience. In fact, it's pleasant to see the snow hit the totals many on here were saying. Exactly, if anything the radar trend in SC adn GA make me feel better. Our offical forecast here is for a measly 1" of snow/sleet then less than a .10" of ice so granted my forecast cant get much worse. Its not that bad though I got 11" in the last one and dont wanna be greedy ( ok maybe a little greedy) but it would be nice for the surface low to be a bit stronger and quicker and maybe give us a bit more ( or a whole lot) snow before the change over. Kinda surprised that band to my SE, places they werent really calling for to get much if any snow are getting hammered several reports of 2"+ along the south coast of NC..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Everyone, the storm is doing almost EXACTLY what it has been progged to do for DAYS! The best lift, thus, precip don't move north of the southern areas (n GA, SC, s/sw NC) until this AFTERNOON and evening. Yes, there is a lot of dry air to overcome but this was forecast. I know it's painful to watch but you have to have patience. In fact, it's pleasant to see the snow hit the totals many on here were saying. I agree with you on how the storm is behaving. But just examining radar trends, it looks to me like by the time the lift and precip shield is able to overcome the very dry air, the dry slot will be arriving very shortly thereafter. The precip shield is being eroded on the north side, there are holes in the returns upstream in GA and SC, and the dry slot is already halfway through GA. We'll get some precip, but it doesn't look like it will meet warning criteria amounts. Is my interpretation wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Anybody know the mb pressure of the surface low right now? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Anybody know the mb pressure of the surface low right now? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Can someone show me a map that shows where the low is that is dying out? Then show me where the new low is suppose to form in the atlantic? Is the new low forming yet? If so, is it closer to the coast or what? Thank you to anyone who can help me understand! Here is the current surface map clearly showing the slp in the GoM. Its not strengthening though. Its unclear how much development will take place once it crosses over into the Atlantic proper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormSC Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Here is the current surface map clearly showing the slp in the GoM. Its not strengthening though. Its unclear how much development will take place once it crosses over into the Atlantic proper. Is this moving east or NE? I thought I heard someone say that if the low came more into the Tampa area that coastal sections of SC would get more snow than rain. Also, it looks like we do have a ways to go with this. It is going to bring warm air with it though, right? I keep thinking of the Christmas storm and how it brought cold air down, instead of up. I hope that makes sense. Thanks again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Well 1014 is really bad, even I know that. It will not re-strengthen until it is well north of NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormSC Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Well 1014 is really bad, even I know that. It will not re-strengthen until it is well north of NC Ok, so it will not redevelop until NC. Ok, then that shows me that it is over for me! Thank you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 RAH issued a Winter Storm Warning for the Triangle. http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=NCZ041&warncounty=NCC183&firewxzone=NCZ041&local_place1=Wake+Forest+NC&product1=Winter+Storm+Warning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 RAH issued a Winter Storm Warning for the Triangle. http://forecast.weat...r+Storm+Warning At 4:30 this morning. They just updated it at 9:33. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moose4 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 RAH issued a Winter Storm Warning for the Triangle. http://forecast.weat...r+Storm+Warning Looks like they also backed off on the snow amounts in the 9:22 forecast update, at least for me in Durham...half-inch today, 1-2" tonight with .1" ice, and another .1" ice tomorrow. A little frustrating, but the Christmas storm was so cool, it's hard to get but so bent out of shape over it. It is a bit odd to see bands scooting along 40 miles south of here dumping snow on Fayettnam, while I'm seeing patches of blue sky in RTP. Such is the South in winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 The big push of precip won't hit S/W NC until 11 at the earliest per the RUC. Insane omegas coming through the area in the next several hours beginning at 11 or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 The big push of precip won't hit S/W NC until 11 at the earliest per the RUC. Insane omegas coming through the area in the next several hours beginning at 11 or so. JWow, The snow is really coming down now. Nice big fluffy fat flakes. Looking at the radar, it is filling back in for my area and pushing your way. We will see a lot of forcing/lift soon, I believe. What is the RUC showing from here on out? Does it still look like a whopper? Thanks for any input! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 The big push of precip won't hit S/W NC until 11 at the earliest per the RUC. Insane omegas coming through the area in the next several hours beginning at 11 or so. Wow, trying to avoid the IMBY question here, so let me just ask this. Are you saying there is a shot at redevelopment that would impact the Triad in a meaningful way? Cuz right now the radar isn't promising and I feel like I've seen this play before.....the one where we sit, wait and watch the radar all day while the WWA scrolls across the tv and nothing falls. Give me some hope brotha'! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kgar2121 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 WOW, is that what is supposed to be bringing another round of precip? I closed all of my businesses this morning, and right now, I am feeling pretty shady about it. I am just a little to the north of you, but do you expect to see more moisture in the next few hours for you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Yesterday, I had indicated that the surface low was ~100 miles south of its projected track, based on RUC initializations, back when it was still in the NW GOM and that that implied a further south track further east meaning colder for the SE coast.. Sure enough, it is currently ~100 miles further south in the NE GOM vs. model consensus projections. The 14Z RUC initialization has it ~100 miles offshore the FL panhandle. It had been projected by most models to be hugging the panhandle. Also, note how much stronger the wedging signature is vs. the model consensus projections' pretty lame signature. The NAM and GGEM were closest to having the strong wedge sig. The GFS was awful. The Euro was not al that good, itself. Here is that 14Z RUC: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 JWow, The snow is really coming down now. Nice big fluffy fat flakes. Looking at the radar, it is filling back in for my area and pushing your way. We will see a lot of forcing/lift soon, I believe. What is the RUC showing from here on out? Does it still look like a whopper? Thanks for any input! Good deal. Been mired with lgt snow and flurry action for the past couple hours. It has snowfall for the area for the next 7-8 hours with the heaviest precip coming during the afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Good deal. Been mired with lgt snow and flurry action for the past couple hours. It has snowfall for the area for the next 7-8 hours with the heaviest precip coming during the afternoon. I'm actually like the way the radar looks around ATL right now. Even though it is not a solid wall of precip it looks almost convective like so and is heading ENE (right up 85). So I think, and these are just my thoughts without looking at any model, that that keep swirling toward CLT and give those of us north of the NC/SC boarder that has been seeing the precip dry up our best rates this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Here is the current surface map clearly showing the slp in the GoM. Its not strengthening though. Its unclear how much development will take place once it crosses over into the Atlantic proper. The new low is clearly forming off the NE Florida coast. The pressures are dropping and the winds are spinning in the right direction. As to what that means, I don't know. Probably even less snow for here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Keeping an eye out for that and hoping for the best ! The big push of precip won't hit S/W NC until 11 at the earliest per the RUC. Insane omegas coming through the area in the next several hours beginning at 11 or so. Same here. Yes the RUC seems to want to keep us in precip over us for a good while. During the Christmas storm, had a large lull for 3 hours that night until the omegas kicked in in the LEE. that is what gave Robert has snow. Hoping to see that! Good deal. Been mired with lgt snow and flurry action for the past couple hours. It has snowfall for the area for the next 7-8 hours with the heaviest precip coming during the afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCWeSU Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 The new low is clearly forming off the NE Florida coast. The pressures are dropping and the winds are spinning in the right direction. As to what that means, I don't know. Probably even less snow for here. It definitely means less snow for the chapel hill area... probably more snow for everyone else. Lows typically form on baroclinic boundaries (in this case the wam front) which is what is happening here and what was predicted to happen via all the models.. So really there's no change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 So, am I to understand this low will actually strengthen south of NC as it moves up along the coast. My earlier understandng was the strengthening would occur off Delmarva. Thanks for the clarity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Somebody give a depressed snowman some hope Radar just looks terrible unless there's redevelopment which I see no sign of in n.ga Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCWeSU Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 So, am I to understand this low will actually strengthen south of NC as it moves up along the coast. My earlier understandng was the strengthening would occur off Delmarva. Thanks for the clarity. No.. it should stay pretty weak until the upper level feature from out west gets closer to the surface feature... which won't occur until the low drifts off the NC coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Hoping the upper level energy will fire it up again, but it's not looking too good out there. Dec 2000 taught me well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I don't know if there has ever been a major winter storm that hit every state in the south hard except the north carolina piedmont. However, both the nam and gfs have increased amounts over the central/eastern nc. It doesn't look like it will be all snow though but still, 0.50 of mixed precip is still pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I am trying to figure out if those yellows down by rockingham to Raeford are sleet returns or just heavy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I know that my mother-in-law in Raeford has nearly 5" of snow at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.