jburns Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 The snow started here about 4-5 hours earlier here than projected. I'm wondering if we can cash in on the higher snow ratios while the 850's are SO COLD (-9)? It looks to be an event that will last longer than 12 hours. Also, it appears that the models as well as the NWS discussions are delaying the change over to freezing drizzle. All I've got is what amounts to a light frost. Occasional flake and that's it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Thanks Matt!! Bout 20 miles South of me in the upstate right now. Hoping for a better North push There will always be some 'bust' areas....or at least most of the time anyway. Your area is the prime candidate, although I wouldn't throw in the towel all of the way just yet. But yes....very very dry air. Yes....pretty good shot of snow about to move into Cleveland Gaston, Rutherford, and Meck counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 just arrived at work here in Davidson. Back roads are HORRIBLE. Do not get out on them unless you have to. My boss just called me and told be to get the heck home, lol. Back on topic and good burst of snow just started up again up here. Just eye balling it it looks like a solid 3-4" already. Radar beginning to light back up around the upstate and moving toward CLT. It's going to be one of those days where we will have to rely on it developing over us as waves of lift move across. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I think I'm right at 5" here...reports of half a foot down at the state park. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreensboroWx Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Anyone in the Triad to the Triangle are going to have to be patient!!! The models have shown the very slow progression N of the precip shield the past couple of days. We won't get ours until this afternoon and it WILL be lighter than what they get to our SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Very interesting feature on the 12z RUC at 5 hours -- it closes of an 850 contour at 5 hours over NE Alabama. Checked back the last 4 RUC runs and it hadn't done that .... Still nada in Shelby (for the last 2 hours) but band trying to creep my way... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Anyone in the Triad to the Triangle are going to have to be patient!!! The models have shown the very slow progression N of the precip shield the past couple of days. We won't get ours until this afternoon and it WILL be lighter than what they get to our SW. In order to get ours this time we will have to bend over. Before the precip shield pushes far enough north it will be east of the Triad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 In order to get ours this time we will have to bend over. Before the precip shield pushes far enough north it will be east of the Triad. Everybody keeps talking about redeveloping! That hardly ever happens. I have seen this for years. We get huge amount of moisture and get nothing when it hits the wall of cold dry air. We can wish cast all we want its just not going to happen this time. Congrats to all that did get some!!! Maybe we get more down the road hopefully sooner rather than later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreensboroWx Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Yes, the main shield of precip over SC will be east of the Triad as has been modeled for days now. Additional precip is expected to develop and move into our area. I'm not saying we're going to get hammered like they are south of us, but, hey, they're due! I'm pretty confident we'll have at least a couple more chance this winter. In order to get ours this time we will have to bend over. Before the precip shield pushes far enough north it will be east of the Triad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I think the lift is going to lift right past Rutherford County.. Wonder if that 850 contour means anything?? Very interesting feature on the 12z RUC at 5 hours -- it closes of an 850 contour at 5 hours over NE Alabama. Checked back the last 4 RUC runs and it hadn't done that .... Still nada in Shelby (for the last 2 hours) but band trying to creep my way... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Everybody keeps talking about redeveloping! That hardly ever happens. I have seen this for years. We get huge amount of moisture and get nothing when it hits the wall of cold dry air. We can wish cast all we want its just not going to happen this time. Congrats to all that did get some!!! Maybe we get more down the road hopefully sooner rather than later. I said that all day yesterday. It actually ended up closer than I thought. The low didn't weaken until later than forecasted and for a while in the wee hours it looked as if it might be able to overcome the dry air and give me an inch or two. But when it did finally weaken the northern movement stopped like it had air brakes and everything started sliding almost due east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I said that all day yesterday. It actually ended up closer than I thought. The low didn't weaken until later than forecasted and for a while in the wee hours it looked as if it might be able to overcome the dry air and give me an inch or two. But when it did finally weaken the northern movement stopped like it had air brakes and everything started sliding almost due east. yeah I know. I posted all day about dry air. Pilotwx and Big Frosty said all day yesterday we weren't going to get anything because of all the dry air. I think Foothills did a great job with forecast but dry air just killed us up this way. Hopefully another one soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowacane Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 yeah I know. I posted all day about dry air. Pilotwx and Big Frosty said all day yesterday we weren't going to get anything because of all the dry air. I think Foothills did a great job with forecast but dry air just killed us up this way. Hopefully another one soon In the northern part of the state when we get this type of dry air, we almost always lose, we never can overcome how dry it is and the moisture always slides out to the coast. I had hopes, but I kept telling my GF that we would be in trouble due to the dp being so low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tazaroo Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I said that all day yesterday. It actually ended up closer than I thought. The low didn't weaken until later than forecasted and for a while in the wee hours it looked as if it might be able to overcome the dry air and give me an inch or two. But when it did finally weaken the northern movement stopped like it had air brakes and everything started sliding almost due east. It wasn't even suppose to start here in Ramseur until noon so anything earlier is just bonus snow. We have 3/4th inch on the ground here. Check out the latest RUC and it still looks good at least for the Southern Triad. I think some are given up too soon. The models have been showing this main first precip band slide east for a day or more first with the light too moderate precip this way lingering for the rest of the day to early morning tues. We may not see 6+ inches but I think we see a decent amount of snow from this when its all said and done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelJ Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Looking into the longer range, looks like rain coming in this weekend or early next week followed by a pretty good warm up as La Nina finally flexes her muscle. Point is I wouldn't count on getting anymore in the south this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Some of you folks also have to remember that radar will NOT show everything especially when it comes to wintry precipitation. What appears as a dry hole for a few areas could easily be reporting snow in those spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 well...FWIW the 12Z NAM is considerably colder at 850 overnight for the Triangle...and maybe wetter. Hang in folks. Don't give up just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Cautiously optimistic here. I'm sure we will get something even if it is just an inch or two. GFS wants to give us 5 or so and the NAM wants to give us 3-4. RUC looks okay. Not supposed to be snowing at 9:03 anyway. Back away from the cliff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 FWIW the new NAM looks great for central nc. Solid 20dz returns on the simulated radar for the next 24 hours. Now if we can only get the radar to match! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 It wasn't even suppose to start here in Ramseur until noon so anything earlier is just bonus snow. We have 3/4th inch on the ground here. Check out the latest RUC and it still looks good at least for the Southern Triad. I think some are given up too soon. The models have been showing this main first precip band slide east for a day or more first with the light too moderate precip this way lingering for the rest of the day to early morning tues. We may not see 6+ inches but I think we see a decent amount of snow from this when its all said and done. Keep the faith but its not happening. Look for winter storm warning to be dropped later today for our area and replaced by a WWA for slick spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterhawk Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Looking into the longer range, looks like rain coming in this weekend or early next week followed by a pretty good warm up as La Nina finally flexes her muscle. Point is I wouldn't count on getting anymore in the south this year. Long range changes almost run-run; it goes from 20's & 30's here next week to 50's & 60's; maybe it will warm up but then again maybe not.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 The precip is breaking up in GA and SC. If that's the area that's supposed to make it into central NC then there is no way we're going to reach warning criteria here. By the time it overcomes the dry air, the dry slot currently in GA will be moving in. I don't care what the new NAM says. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowacane Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 The precip is breaking up in GA and SC. If that's the area that's supposed to make it into central NC then there is no way we're going to reach warning criteria here. By the time it overcomes the dry air, the dry slot currently in GA will be moving in. I don't care what the new NAM says. Agreed, the NAM is wrong, DP's are too low for that meager moisture to do much, if anything here. It suck, but at least those farther down south got a taste of what most of us got on Christmas, though here there was only 3 inches. Maybe in Feb we will have another chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 The precip is breaking up in GA and SC. If that's the area that's supposed to make it into central NC then there is no way we're going to reach warning criteria here. By the time it overcomes the dry air, the dry slot currently in GA will be moving in. I don't care what the new NAM says. its not all breaking up. its just not showing up on radar. i can tell you it has been snowing moderately since the sun came up. when the heavier echos move through the flakes are the size of quarters and it just pours. when the heavier ones move away, its still snowing like crazy. i honestly believe i will make 10" - and depending on how the back edge moves (whether it skirts me or just misses me) 12" is not out of the question Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelJ Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Long range changes almost run-run; it goes from 20's & 30's here next week to 50's & 60's; maybe it will warm up but then again maybe not.. I am not talking about the models alone, but the fact the trough looks to be retrograding back into Alaska some time late this week plus the cooling stratospheric levels over the pole indicates a pattern change.That to go along with a rising NAO and the normal La Nina climatology for this area are pretty good clues IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 FWIW the new NAM looks great for central nc. Solid 20dz returns on the simulated radar for the next 24 hours. Now if we can only get the radar to match! Showing 3 inches for here. Not sure if I buy it. Looks like it is a battle of the models vs. the forecasters with this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 its not all breaking up. its just not showing up on radar. i can tell you it has been snowing moderately since the sun came up. when the heavier echos move through the flakes are the size of quarters and it just pours. when the heavier ones move away, its still snowing like crazy. i honestly believe i will make 10" - and depending on how the back edge moves (whether it skirts me or just misses me) 12" is not out of the question Every radar I see shows holes opening up in GA and SC. Maybe not over your house, but there are holes nonetheless. Even Intellicast is showing it! Maybe they'll fill back in later. Who knows. Congrats on your snow, by the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowacane Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Showing 3 inches for here. Not sure if I buy it. Looks like it is a battle of the models vs. the forecasters with this storm. Just look at radar trends and you will have the answer you seek but do not want to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreensboroWx Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Everyone, the storm is doing almost EXACTLY what it has been progged to do for DAYS! The best lift, thus, precip don't move north of the southern areas (n GA, SC, s/sw NC) until this AFTERNOON and evening. Yes, there is a lot of dry air to overcome but this was forecast. I know it's painful to watch but you have to have patience. In fact, it's pleasant to see the snow hit the totals many on here were saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tazaroo Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Everyone, the storm is doing almost EXACTLY what it has been progged to do for DAYS! The best lift, thus, precip don't move north of the southern areas (n GA, SC, s/sw NC) until this AFTERNOON and evening. Yes, there is a lot of dry air to overcome but this was forecast. I know it's painful to watch but you have to have patience. In fact, it's pleasant to see the snow hit the totals many on here were saying. I agree. Just look at the latest 13z RUC. I shows this lull for the next hour or two and then ramps up the lift first over sw, southern Nc and then by 17-18z over the triad and hour or two later bordering the triangle. It show decent lift and precip over central Nc all afternoon and into the evening. Can it be wrong, Of course it can, but its not time to through in the towel just let. Also, just checked the radar trends again and yes there are some holes but it does seem to me that the radar is starting to take a slightly more sw to Ne orientation vs the mostly East to West we have seen the last few hours. Keep the faith at least for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.