Isopycnic Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Tear down that wall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
darkabyssus Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 FWIW now... 6z gfs shows RDU at 4-5 inches.. Heres hoping thats right!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 FWIW now... 6z gfs shows RDU at 4-5 inches.. Heres hoping thats right!!! Can you provide a link? I usually use bufkit for soundings but this graphic looks different. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0017 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0206 AM CST MON JAN 10 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN AL...CNTRL GA...CNTRL SC CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION VALID 100806Z - 101400Z SIGNIFICANT WINTER PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE PHASE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH MORNING WITH SIGNIFICANT ICING AND SLEET LIKELY. FREEZING RAIN RATES SHOULD AVERAGE 0.05 TO 0.10 IN/HR. A SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE EWD ACROSS THE NERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH INTENSE LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION PROFILES DEVELOPING INLAND ATOP A COLD AIR MASS. AT 07Z...THE SURFACE FREEZING LINE EXTENDED FROM MGM TO JUST N OF MCN AND INTO CNTRL SC. HOWEVER...THE SURFACE WET BULB ZERO LINE WAS MUCH FARTHER S SUGGESTING BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING WILL TAKE PLACE ONCE PRECIPITATION BEGINS. THEREFORE...AREAS CURRENTLY JUST S OF THE FREEZING LINE WILL LIKELY CHANGE OVER TO FREEZING RAIN...WITH AREAS ALONG AND JUST N OF THE CURRENT FREEZING LINE EXPERIENCING THE LONGEST DURATION. TO THE N...SNOW ACROSS NRN GA AND INTO CNTRL SC MAY EVENTUALLY SWITCH OVER TO SLEET AS A WARM NOSE FORMS ALOFT...WITH ACCUMULATING SLEET POSSIBLE. ..JEWELL.. 01/10/2011 ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...FFC...TAE...BMX... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 man...hoping the 6Z GFS is in the ballpark around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 man...hoping the 6Z GFS is in the ballpark around here. hope its right too but that dry slot on radar doesn't look to good to me. In Georgia the radar looks bad this early in the game Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
feloniousq Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 WRAL trying to make up every excuse they can think of for not getting more than an inch. Looks like Fayetteville, Lee/Moore, etc are already there...they really expect it will just stop at the Durham/Wake/Orange line? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LiQuiDBuD Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I've gotten ten additional inches on top of the 3.5 from Friday. Looks impressive but the dry slot is kicking in. Hope the precipitation shield moves north! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Like the new models and radar- precip still developing way back in AL and the 700MB RH is still high on the RUC in SC even at 17Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 The lead band is having a hard time makig progress into the Triangle as expected. The area of precip (push of omega) that I think will bring us precip is currently is central SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canela Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 The lead band is having a hard time makig progress into the Triangle as expected. The area of precip (push of omega) that I think will bring us precip is currently is central SC. Hi Alan, are you in the 1 inch of snow for RDU camp with 1/10 of ZR or are your totals higher than that? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshWeather Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I'm excited for my girlfriend in charlotte. It seems like the last 4 or 5 good snows I have received, she has gotten nothing out of...so a little bit of payback for me...which is fine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Hi Alan, are you in the 1 inch of snow for RDU camp with 1/10 of ZR or are your totals higher than that? Thanks You can follow my forecasts here, this is the one I made yesterday evening. http://www.examiner.com/weather-in-raleigh/major-southeast-us-winter-storm-set-to-play-out I think here in Raleigh, we will likely see 1-3 inches of snow with a 0.25 inch freezing rain glaze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 yeah...that initial band is moving off to the east. Let's see what happens with the stuff in SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
darkabyssus Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Can you provide a link? I usually use bufkit for soundings but this graphic looks different. Thanks! Coolwx Pick your state and city on the left. Has the nam, gfs and ruc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 The snow started here about 4-5 hours earlier here than projected. I'm wondering if we can cash in on the higher snow ratios while the 850's are SO COLD (-9)? It looks to be an event that will last longer than 12 hours. Also, it appears that the models as well as the NWS discussions are delaying the change over to freezing drizzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Hey, it looks like all the moisture is south of Charlotte moving due east. Everything is south and I don't see much in Georgia downstream moving toward us. It is just me or is this thing about over? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Radar over the Upstate has looked pretty paltry over the Upstate for the past hour or two. However, I think you are beginning to see the results of this next push of omega with Level 2 data showing an increase in the precip from Laurens/ Union west to the GA/SC line at I-85. Then, if you look at FFC's level 2, you have more headed up I-85. So, while I am fairly nervous about my snow totals in some areas, the radar looks a little better to me at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyric297 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Hey, it looks like all the moisture is south of Charlotte moving due east. Everything is south and I don't see much in Georgia downstream moving toward us. It is just me or is this thing about over? Really? I think you need to pay a little more attention to whats going on. I think this is more the transition period where the low will jump across the florida peninsula and once it starts tapping the atlantic the moisture will fill back in. Just be patient. Most of the models showed this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Radar over the Upstate has looked pretty paltry over the Upstate for the past hour or two. However, I think you are beginning to see the results of this next push of omega with Level 2 data showing an increase in the precip from Laurens/ Union west to the GA/SC line at I-85. Then, if you look at FFC's level 2, you have more headed up I-85. So, while I am fairly nervous about my snow totals in some areas, the radar looks a little better to me at the moment. Thanks Matt, it seems like we might not have a problem making it to 4 inches if some of those heavier bands can just make it to us. Really wish we could jackpot but oh well.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Really? I think you need to pay a little more attention to whats going on. I think this is more the transition period where the low will jump across the florida peninsula and once it starts tapping the atlantic the moisture will fill back in. Just be patient. Most of the models showed this. You know the panic button for us weenies are close. I'm with you though won't make any judgement until this thing is almost over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherheels Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I guess it's pretty trivial at the moment but I'm shocked RAH put my county under Winter Storm Warning, looks like they fell for the awesome radar earlier that was projected by nearly all models to hit a wall, and it did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyric297 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 You know the panic button for us weenies are close. I'm with you though won't make any judgement until this thing is almost over. Yah. Check out what msuwx just posted as well about the additional data on the radar packages. So far I am encouraged by what I am seeing and I still have yet to see a flake! 850's have trended (IMO) colder with each model run. Hopefully that will translate into more snow for us. I'm still keeping my fingers crossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowpressure Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Looks like some real issues with ice south of Atl through Macon area- looking at radars anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Radar over the Upstate has looked pretty paltry over the Upstate for the past hour or two. However, I think you are beginning to see the results of this next push of omega with Level 2 data showing an increase in the precip from Laurens/ Union west to the GA/SC line at I-85. Then, if you look at FFC's level 2, you have more headed up I-85. So, while I am fairly nervous about my snow totals in some areas, the radar looks a little better to me at the moment. I agree, I hope your 2-4 holds here in Surry County (Pilot Mtn) But I'm not the least bit impressed at the moment. DRY DRY DRY ! Gotta have some development in N Ga. to make here ? BTW - NWS says 2-5 for here. We'll see I guess. With this much dry air it's very hard to get totals close I think. WXII in house model showed 1/2 inch in Mt.Airy ? Anyway Good Luck with your call hope it works out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 QPF is starting to build over the central/northern upstate especially around GSP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 QPF is starting to build over the central/northern upstate especially around GSP. check out the new gsp snowfall map. i posted it in the other thread. nearly 11-12" over a lot of ne ga and the upstate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I agree, I hope your 2-4 holds here in Surry County (Pilot Mtn) But I'm not the least bit impressed at the moment. DRY DRY DRY ! Gotta have some development in N Ga. to make here ? BTW - NWS says 2-5 for here. We'll see I guess. With this much dry air it's very hard to get totals close I think. WXII in house model showed 1/2 inch in Mt.Airy ? Anyway Good Luck with your call hope it works out There will always be some 'bust' areas....or at least most of the time anyway. Your area is the prime candidate, although I wouldn't throw in the towel all of the way just yet. But yes....very very dry air. Matt, do you also see that lift coming into southern NC East of the mountians in the Rutherford, Cleveland, Gaston...... Yes....pretty good shot of snow about to move into Cleveland Gaston, Rutherford, and Meck counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCTechster Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Dont pay attention to the radar, its going to fool you. This storm is going to be like every other that rides up the coast, once the low makes its turn, the precip going to turn north with it. When it gets wound up of the south carolina coast, the precip will begin to move north and northeast. I dont think anyone is going to get screwed out of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JQPublic Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 WRAL trying to make up every excuse they can think of for not getting more than an inch. Looks like Fayetteville, Lee/Moore, etc are already there...they really expect it will just stop at the Durham/Wake/Orange line? Wow it really looks like that what's happening on the radar. It didn't even get here. I guess we still have a chance though as it wasn't expected to start here til midday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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