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The January 9-10 Storm Discussion Part 5


Isopycnic

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0017

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0206 AM CST MON JAN 10 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN AL...CNTRL GA...CNTRL SC

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION

VALID 100806Z - 101400Z

SIGNIFICANT WINTER PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE PHASE OVER MUCH OF THE

AREA THROUGH MORNING WITH SIGNIFICANT ICING AND SLEET LIKELY.

FREEZING RAIN RATES SHOULD AVERAGE 0.05 TO 0.10 IN/HR.

A SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE EWD ACROSS THE NERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH

INTENSE LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION PROFILES DEVELOPING INLAND ATOP A

COLD AIR MASS. AT 07Z...THE SURFACE FREEZING LINE EXTENDED FROM MGM

TO JUST N OF MCN AND INTO CNTRL SC. HOWEVER...THE SURFACE WET BULB

ZERO LINE WAS MUCH FARTHER S SUGGESTING BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING WILL

TAKE PLACE ONCE PRECIPITATION BEGINS. THEREFORE...AREAS CURRENTLY

JUST S OF THE FREEZING LINE WILL LIKELY CHANGE OVER TO FREEZING

RAIN...WITH AREAS ALONG AND JUST N OF THE CURRENT FREEZING LINE

EXPERIENCING THE LONGEST DURATION.

TO THE N...SNOW ACROSS NRN GA AND INTO CNTRL SC MAY EVENTUALLY

SWITCH OVER TO SLEET AS A WARM NOSE FORMS ALOFT...WITH ACCUMULATING

SLEET POSSIBLE.

..JEWELL.. 01/10/2011

ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...FFC...TAE...BMX...

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The lead band is having a hard time makig progress into the Triangle as expected. The area of precip (push of omega) that I think will bring us precip is currently is central SC.

Hi Alan, are you in the 1 inch of snow for RDU camp with 1/10 of ZR or are your totals higher than that? Thanks

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Hi Alan, are you in the 1 inch of snow for RDU camp with 1/10 of ZR or are your totals higher than that? Thanks

You can follow my forecasts here, this is the one I made yesterday evening.

http://www.examiner.com/weather-in-raleigh/major-southeast-us-winter-storm-set-to-play-out

I think here in Raleigh, we will likely see 1-3 inches of snow with a 0.25 inch freezing rain glaze.

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The snow started here about 4-5 hours earlier here than projected. I'm wondering if we can cash in on the higher snow ratios while the 850's are SO COLD (-9)? It looks to be an event that will last longer than 12 hours. Also, it appears that the models as well as the NWS discussions are delaying the change over to freezing drizzle.

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Radar over the Upstate has looked pretty paltry over the Upstate for the past hour or two. However, I think you are beginning to see the results of this next push of omega with Level 2 data showing an increase in the precip from Laurens/ Union west to the GA/SC line at I-85. Then, if you look at FFC's level 2, you have more headed up I-85. So, while I am fairly nervous about my snow totals in some areas, the radar looks a little better to me at the moment.

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Hey, it looks like all the moisture is south of Charlotte moving due east. Everything is south and I don't see much in Georgia downstream moving toward us. It is just me or is this thing about over?:thumbsdown:

Really? I think you need to pay a little more attention to whats going on. I think this is more the transition period where the low will jump across the florida peninsula and once it starts tapping the atlantic the moisture will fill back in. Just be patient. Most of the models showed this.

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Radar over the Upstate has looked pretty paltry over the Upstate for the past hour or two. However, I think you are beginning to see the results of this next push of omega with Level 2 data showing an increase in the precip from Laurens/ Union west to the GA/SC line at I-85. Then, if you look at FFC's level 2, you have more headed up I-85. So, while I am fairly nervous about my snow totals in some areas, the radar looks a little better to me at the moment.

Thanks Matt, it seems like we might not have a problem making it to 4 inches if some of those heavier bands can just make it to us. Really wish we could jackpot but oh well..Snowman.gif

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Really? I think you need to pay a little more attention to whats going on. I think this is more the transition period where the low will jump across the florida peninsula and once it starts tapping the atlantic the moisture will fill back in. Just be patient. Most of the models showed this.

You know the panic button for us weenies are close. I'm with you though won't make any judgement until this thing is almost over.

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You know the panic button for us weenies are close. I'm with you though won't make any judgement until this thing is almost over.

Yah. Check out what msuwx just posted as well about the additional data on the radar packages. So far I am encouraged by what I am seeing and I still have yet to see a flake! 850's have trended (IMO) colder with each model run. Hopefully that will translate into more snow for us. I'm still keeping my fingers crossed.

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Radar over the Upstate has looked pretty paltry over the Upstate for the past hour or two. However, I think you are beginning to see the results of this next push of omega with Level 2 data showing an increase in the precip from Laurens/ Union west to the GA/SC line at I-85. Then, if you look at FFC's level 2, you have more headed up I-85. So, while I am fairly nervous about my snow totals in some areas, the radar looks a little better to me at the moment.

I agree, I hope your 2-4 holds here in Surry County (Pilot Mtn) But I'm not the least bit impressed at the moment. DRY DRY DRY ! Gotta have some development in N Ga. to make here ? BTW - NWS says 2-5 for here. We'll see I guess. With this much dry air it's very hard to get totals close I think. WXII in house model showed 1/2 inch in Mt.Airy ? Anyway Good Luck with your call hope it works out :thumbsup:

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I agree, I hope your 2-4 holds here in Surry County (Pilot Mtn) But I'm not the least bit impressed at the moment. DRY DRY DRY ! Gotta have some development in N Ga. to make here ? BTW - NWS says 2-5 for here. We'll see I guess. With this much dry air it's very hard to get totals close I think. WXII in house model showed 1/2 inch in Mt.Airy ? Anyway Good Luck with your call hope it works out :thumbsup:

There will always be some 'bust' areas....or at least most of the time anyway. Your area is the prime candidate, although I wouldn't throw in the towel all of the way just yet. But yes....very very dry air.

Matt, do you also see that lift coming into southern NC East of the mountians in the Rutherford, Cleveland, Gaston......

Yes....pretty good shot of snow about to move into Cleveland Gaston, Rutherford, and Meck counties.

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Dont pay attention to the radar, its going to fool you. This storm is going to be like every other that rides up the coast, once the low makes its turn, the precip going to turn north with it. When it gets wound up of the south carolina coast, the precip will begin to move north and northeast. I dont think anyone is going to get screwed out of snow.

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WRAL trying to make up every excuse they can think of for not getting more than an inch. Looks like Fayetteville, Lee/Moore, etc are already there...they really expect it will just stop at the Durham/Wake/Orange line?

Wow it really looks like that what's happening on the radar. It didn't even get here. I guess we still have a chance though as it wasn't expected to start here til midday.

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