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January 9-10 Winter Storm Obs Thread II


Isopycnic

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12z NAM cranks out .53 for GSO between now and 7pm tomorrow. Most of it comes later this afternoon and tonight. Looks like almost all snow. Radar looks anemic now, but I haven't lost hope.

TW

I'll go ahead and call BS on that one. Unless we are talking about some serious coastal redevelopment, I just don't see the moisture being available to draw another .53 , much less a tenth, from the tap.

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Really no accumulations to speak of since the intial band hit pre-dawn. Very light snow here right now and 25. Must be some seriously dry air right at the N.C./SC border because it's just killing the precip as it moves this way. RUC runs starting to show precip shield breaking up over NE Ga/Upstate in the next few hours -- looks like I'll be lucky to get to warning criteria -- still stuck on 3 1/2 inches. (Wish I had a little of what the 12z NAM is smokin).

yep same here in clt. I'm losing hope. Just can not NOT get over 3 inches in clt. It's amazing.

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Hi Lookout....I was wondering do you really think we'll get the additional .25 to .50 seeing how the moisture that is streaming into NE GA is diminishing like hitting a brick wall? Am I missing something or can you explain how we're supposed to get it? Thank you in advance. :rolleyes:

See my previous post. But I think 0.25 is a realistic amount the rest of the day based on radar. But of course not everyone will and it's hit and miss. You also have to keep in mind there will be freezing rain/drizzle the radars won't pick up since some of it is forming at a low elevation and the radar is over shooting it. The problem is it won't take much to really cause problems. Roads in atlanta have completely iced over due to the light freezing rain/drizzle and the nam suggests freezing drizzle will continue to fall even into tomorrow morning. This is probably likely as that is par for the course in strong cad situations as they start to break down.

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STILL sleeting here and it looks like sleet/ZR will linger into tomorrow. A tick over 6" now, snowbound for a couple days with 4.5" on the roads.

Most of us wont' be going anywhere for a few days lol. I do worry about those who have emergencies though because it's virtually impossible to get to anyone, especially in rural areas. This will be especially true as we get a coating of freezing rain/drizzle on top of it.

I haven't checked but I'm guessing there is at least 6 inches of snow on my road (assuming that some of it melted last night)..but it could be more. It just isn't going to go anywhere and of course they won't be able to clear these back roads..hell there isn't any snow plows or anything of that nature here anyway.

It's gone over to mostly light sleet/freezing rain here now.

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It not coastal development...it's the pocket of upper level energy sliding up from n central GA into the western/central part of NC. This provides the lift and precip.

I'll go ahead and call BS on that one. Unless we are talking about some serious coastal redevelopment, I just don't see the moisture being available to draw another .53 , much less a tenth, from the tap.

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Oh well, this was just meant to be a Deep South and southern NC border counties storm. There have been so many times when RDU, the Triad, Northeastern NC, and VA got snow when the rest of the region did not, so those left out this time should not be too upset. I rejoice that people who have been shafted in the past are reaping a bountiful snow today.

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It not coastal development...it's the pocket of upper level energy sliding up from n central GA into the western/central part of NC. This provides the lift and precip.

I would like to believe, but until I see it materializing on the radar, I am highly skeptical it will deliver for the northern portions of the region.

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The problem with radar now is that the cloud deck is so low, especially for us, most of what falls is below the tilt of the beam and it's not picked up. Still have sleet and freezing rain off and on.

Yep. Just looking at the latest nam, it shows freezing drizzle or the possibility of it all the way through tomorrow afternoon in the damming regions..pretty incredible. It also keeps us below freezing virtually all day..which isn't surprising. I'd be surprised to get above freezing tomorrow.

here is the 33 hour nam..valid for 21z tomorrow..still freezing drizzle around. The actual accumulations won't be much but it means things just won't get any better through tomorrow and won't until we get some sun wed.

NAM_221_2011011012_F33_CREF_SURFACE.png

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I agree for you location Burger.

West of you, Im really looking at the returns coming into western upstate as it has a better angle of coming into the southern foothills.

I hope..

I admit I had the panic button ready to push, and got talked down but considering how it looks for us now with that more NE flow I'm loving it.

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Also I should add that some heavy radar returns are headed towards CLT so don't understand all the cliff diving.

Yeah, I've been waiting on those returns just to our south to get in here for the last hour and a half. It seems like they break up right before they get here. Not giving up yet, just seems like the earlier runs that had most of the moisture staying just to our south was more correct. Light snow in west Clt right now.

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5 to 7 inches of snow in Elgin, SC already, coming down at about 1/2 to 1 inch per hour. Road are treacherous to say the least. I went to work about 5 miles away and then they sent us home. Both trips took over 30 minutes. Listening to the scanner and the Fire Department and Police Department are running wreck after wreck...

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