HurricaneJosh Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 Bianca has taken a more W course now, meaning it should probably miss the Pilbara coast by a decent margin. Both agencies are showing a cyclone approaching minimal hurricane strength (~60 kt), and both agencies show it sailing well N of Exmouth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Bianca has taken a more W course now, meaning it should probably miss the Pilbara coast by a decent margin. Both agencies are showing a cyclone approaching minimal hurricane strength (~60 kt), and both agencies show it sailing well N of Exmouth. I dunno. It's building a core now and won't hit shear for another 48 hrs. I could see it getting to 95-105 kts (1-min) before weakening. P.S. Today sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 I dunno. It's building a core now and won't hit shear for another 48 hrs. I could see it getting to 95-105 kts (1-min) before weakening. P.S. Today sucks. To clarify, what I meant was that both agencies show the current intensity approaching minimal hurricane strength. Both also show it getting a bit stronger. Why does today suck? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 To clarify, what I meant was that both agencies show the current intensity approaching minimal hurricane strength. Both also show it getting a bit stronger. Ah, ok. Sorry, I missed that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 Ah, ok. Sorry, I missed that. The way I wrote it was misleading. Anyhoo, it looks like a fish, essentially. Blah. How are them Queensland prospects looking-- Anthony and then that other monster thing that the Euro's showing in ten days? Those looked kind of yummy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 The way I wrote it was misleading. Anyhoo, it looks like a fish, essentially. Blah. How are them Queensland prospects looking-- Anthony and then that other monster thing that the Euro's showing in ten days? Those looked kind of yummy. You should see my fcst track for Anthony. WNW for 3 days, then sharp turn to the south straight into Townsville. TS/H1 at landfall. All the models still showing interest in the 2nd system. BOM guys are also already worried about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 All the models still showing interest in the 2nd system. BOM guys are also already worried about it. Anthony then a stronger system a few days later? The floods might not have peaked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 You should see my fcst track for Anthony. WNW for 3 days, then sharp turn to the south straight into Townsville. TS/H1 at landfall. Oh, wow-- interesting. OK, I'll keep an eye. I notice the BoM gives the system a "high" likelihood of regeneration into a cyclone starting Friday. All the models still showing interest in the 2nd system. BOM guys are also already worried about it. Cool. Where are they mentioning it? I didn't see anything in the weekly outlook... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Cool. Where are they mentioning it? I didn't see anything in the weekly outlook... Emails. On the super secret TS mailing list. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 Emails. On the super secret TS mailing list. Oh. I see. Well... Can ya divulge any tasty tidbits? Do I have to beg in front of everyone...? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Oh. I see. Well... Can ya divulge any tasty tidbits? Do I have to beg in front of everyone...? Ha! They're really not saying much, other than they have confidence in the Euro because it usually does better with these big systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 Ha! They're really not saying much, other than they have confidence in the Euro because it usually does better with these big systems. OK. I guess I'll just have to nibble on that for while. Definitely a titillating bit of info. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 you know who else has confidence in the euro? DT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 you know who else has confidence in the euro? DT. Hush. The BoM has a good handle on their region. Rather than trolling, perhaps you can get excited about the potential Larry-redux scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 In other news... As per the JTWC, Wilma's up to Cat 4 (115 kt). Kinda hawt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 In other news... As per the JTWC, Wilma's up to Cat 4 (115 kt). Kinda hawt. they are late to the party...it's post-peak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 they are late to the party...it's post-peak They only issue every 12 hrs, so sometimes I almost feel the intensity estimates are for posterity's sake-- to ensure the peak is recorded in best track. The imagery confirms that it's on the decline-- the structure doesn't look so hawt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 They only issue every 12 hrs, so sometimes I almost feel the intensity estimates are for posterity's sake-- to ensure the peak is recorded in best track. The imagery confirms that it's on the decline-- the structure doesn't look so hawt. They were up to 115 at 12z... you can always check the URL on the NRL Satellite site to get 6-hour position and intensity updates. Their satellite fix bulletins can also give you a rough idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 They were up to 115 at 12z... you can always check the URL on the NRL Satellite site to get 6-hour position and intensity updates. Their satellite fix bulletins can also give you a rough idea. Oops-- I didn't realize they'd upgraded earlier. I've been a bit crazed with work, and there are so many little things to follow right now-- Wilma, Bianca, Anthony, the Coral-Sea thing after Anthony, etc. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aslkahuna Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Wow-- nice! It really is a sweet system. Is NZ getting a 'cane the equivalent of the Canadian Maritimes getting a 'cane? Or is it even more rare than that? Has NZ ever had a 65-kt tropical cyclone? Considering the difference between hemispheres and the lower latitude of the Jet Stream in the S.H., I would say that NZ getting a 'cane is rarer than the Canadian Maritimes. As far as the second question, I don't have any information as to whether or not NZ has ever had a 65 kt Tropical cyclone. Steve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I'm not sure that any fully tropical cyclone have hit NZ, but they get hit by transitioning storms regularly. It looks like they tend to hold their strength better in ninas... The location and intensity of ET is also affected by the phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle. During El Niño years, tropical cyclones enter middle latitudes anywhere between the Australian coast and about 150°W and typically weaken quickly as they move away to the south-east.During La Niña years, ET is largely confined to longitudes west of the dateline (longitude 180°). These storms move more slowly toward the south and tend to retain their vigour for longer. Interestingly, the strongest storms appear to affect New Zealand when the ENSO cycle is between El Niño and La Niña. http://www.niwa.co.nz/news-and-publications/publications/all/wa/10-1/cyclone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Cyclone Gisele 1968 is probably the strongest (transitioning or extra tropical?) cyclone (and most deadly, I think) to hit NZ. It was strengthening, even while crossing land (which raises a lot of questions, but data shows CP info that indeed backs up a deepening cyclone). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 Interesting info-- thanks, Steve, kush, and Jorge. Jorge-- what were the estimated winds with Giselle? Was it a Hazel-in-the-Mid-Atlantic kind of deal-- like, not really tropical but very severe, whatever the heck it was? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 Latest news: the JTWC has issued a Cyclone Formation Alert for Anthony's remnants. Looks like we'll be back in business with that one soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Consider the sources, but looks like an ET-phaser? http://christchurchcitylibraries.com/kids/nzdisasters/giselle.asp Wiki: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wahine_disaster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 Just doing some quick searches on Google, I'm having a hard time getting a handle on what it was exactly. It seems like it was pretty-much totally extratropical by the time it hit NZ, but extremely strong. That having been said, I'm frankly skeptical Re: the reported gusts to 275 km/hr (almost 150 kt!) In Wellington-- seems farfetched. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 I see Mary lurking. Given that she lived in NZ for a while, I imagine the discussion of cyclone impacts there must be a tad interesting to her. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Probably a "perfect storm" setup...so it was probably mostly ET. Data has it approaching as a 70kt storm and strengthening to around 80kt (1 min) while crossing NZ. It was an April storm...that's the equivalent to October in our hemisphere, giving credence to the phased ET storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 In other news, Bianca is up 70 kts (10-min) from the BOM. JTWC, as usual, is behind the curve with only 60 kts. SATCON was 75 kts (1-min) at 20z, so the BOM estimate is probably good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Lots going on today. Anthony is still on track to redevelop tomorrow or Saturday. Still expecting landfall near Townsville as a TS Sunday or Monday. Bianca is producing gales at Exmouth. Looks like it will head to Perth over the weekend, but obviously not very strong. Wilma is weakening but will become a major XT storm once it passes the North Island. The monster for next week is still on track. All models are still showing a major landfall somewhere along the QLD coast late next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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