HurricaneJosh Posted January 23, 2011 Author Share Posted January 23, 2011 The JTWC forecast is interesting: they have Anthony turning around and accelerating toward Cairns (a very large town) as a hurricane by Day 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 The JTWC forecast is interesting: they have it turning around and accelerating toward Cairns (a very large town) as a hurricane by Day 5. Their forecast has zero model support. I honestly have no idea what they are looking at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 typical JTWC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 23, 2011 Author Share Posted January 23, 2011 Their forecast has zero model support. I honestly have no idea what they are looking at. Interesting. What is your prediction? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 23, 2011 Author Share Posted January 23, 2011 P.S. They explain their reasoning: http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/sh0911web.txt Does that not hold water for you, Adam? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Interesting. What is your prediction? you're gonna hate it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 P.S. They explain their reasoning: http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/sh0911web.txt Does that not hold water for you, Adam? They're way too far north after it turns westward. Yes, a STH will build in and turn it west, but not back to Cairns. As far as intensity goes, it's always a crap shoot, but the models indicate easterly shear plus dry air entrainment come in with the STH and ends up weakening the storm as it heads back to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 another monica? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 i don't want to create a WPAC thread yet since there aren't any active systems in the region anyway so i'll just post this video here.. it's a report about the ITOP mission on Typhoon Megi... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 24, 2011 Author Share Posted January 24, 2011 Anthony looks to be fizzling a bit, but the Tropical Low over the Kimberley is showing promise. The BoM brings it up to Cat 3 (AUS) within a few days, and it may curve S, toward the coast, as a ridge to the S breaks down a bit: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Anthony is going to be an annoying POS for the next few days. Just hanging on around 35 kts until shear kills it off on Thursday. Bleh. 98S could be a decent storm. It'll probably bring gales to the Pilbara and then to Exmouth, but landfall looks unlikely. And now, for your Aussie weather pr0n of the day: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 24, 2011 Author Share Posted January 24, 2011 Wow-- pornographic indeed. That would threaten the most populated portion of Australia's cyclone country. The media would bug out over that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoastLow Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 That's pretty much the same forecast track that weirdo cyclone Laurence from early last season took. It ended up being a Cat 4. Anthony looks to be fizzling a bit, but the Tropical Low over the Kimberley is showing promise. The BoM brings it up to Cat 3 (AUS) within a few days, and it may curve S, toward the coast, as a ridge to the S breaks down a bit: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aslkahuna Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I'm surprised that no one has expressed any interest in TC 08P (Wilma) which is a nice compact little storm that's well organized. It's about 120-180 nautical miles across-one of Josh's favorite type storms. Steve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Don't sleep on Anthony yet. Everything is showing it making a comeback today or tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 I'm surprised that no one has expressed any interest in TC 08P (Wilma) which is a nice compact little storm that's well organized. It's about 120-180 nautical miles across-one of Josh's favorite type storms. Steve Hey Steve, Thanks for keeping us in the loop Re: Wilma. I must confess I wasn't keeping a close eye on it because it's outside of the Aussie zone-- but you're totally right, it's my kinda cyclone. Have you seen the latest JTWC forecast? It has the cyclone getting close to the extreme-N tip of New Zealand at nearly hurricane strength in a few days. That would be kind of interesting, as I think hurricanes are quite unusual down there. Thoughts about that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Have you seen the latest JTWC forecast? It has the cyclone getting close to the extreme-N tip of New Zealand at nearly hurricane strength in a few days. That would be kind of interesting, as I think hurricanes are quite unusual down there. Thoughts about that? The pattern over there seems to be shooting everything towards the North Island...the last 2 recurvers and now this one will all end up down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 Don't sleep on Anthony yet. Everything is showing it making a comeback today or tomorrow. Really? Both the JTWC and BoM are pretty blah about it. Neither shows it regenerating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 The pattern over there seems to be shooting everything towards the North Island...the last 2 recurvers and now this one will all end up down there. Yep, it's like the Coral Sea is having their version of what we had last season: an East Coast fish festival. Extending the analogy, New Zealand is like their "Canadian Maritimes". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Really? Both the JTWC and BoM are pretty blah about it. Neither shows it regenerating. There a lot of ambient dry air around, but as the flow turns easterly, it should mitigate the effects of the dry air. Shear is also decreasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 There a lot of ambient dry air around, but as the flow turns easterly, it should mitigate the effects of the dry air. Shear is also decreasing. Cool. A strengthening cyclone approaching Queensland would certainly wake things up a bit. In other news, the Kimberley low show promise-- the BoM now brings it up to severe status in a few days-- but the forecast track remains resolutely parallel to the Pilbara coast beyond Exmouth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Cool. A strengthening cyclone approaching Queensland would certainly wake things up a bit. Yeah, and of course after I bashed JTWC's forecast the other day, models have shifted that direction. Blind squirrel, acorn... Also, the out periods look more interesting (and it's not just the Euro showing this): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 Wow. Those Euro runs are having a vaguely Larry 2006 vibe to 'em. Interesting. Major Queensland landfalls are quite rare but huge news makers, given that the E coast is way more densely populated than the more cyclone-prone Western Australia. (I know you know this, Adam-- I'm just adding that for those who aren't as familiar with the region.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 The JTWC has issued a Final Warning Re: Anthony, as it's degenerated further and increased vertical wind shear is expected in the near term. That having been said, the text portion of the forecast pointedly notes: HOWEVER, NUMERICAL MODELS ARE INDICATING THE SYSTEM WILL REGENERATE AFTER TAU 60 AS UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS IMPROVE AND THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO A MOISTER ENVIRONMENT EAST OF CAIRNS. In other news... They've classified the Kimberley low as Cyclone 10, and the forecast brings a strong Cat 1 (USA) just offshore of the Pilbara and recurving around the W shore of the continent in a few days: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 Cyclone Bianca is born-- current intensity 994 mb/30 kt (10-min). The latest forecast has the cyclone reaching severe (hurricane) intensity as it moves parallel to the Pilbara coast, with the center passing uncomfortably close to the major towns of Port Hedland and Karratha. For this reason, a large portion of the coast is under a Cyclone Warning. They max out the intensity at 75 kt at hour 60, followed by weakening as the cyclone hits shear: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 wilma...she's trying to be like her namesakes from the other basins Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 wilma...she's trying to be like her namesakes from the other basins Nice tight little core there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 Definite cutiecane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aslkahuna Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Another shot of Wilma. The storm is expected to be in ET transition as it passes NZ. Steve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 Another shot of Wilma. The storm is expected to be in ET transition as it passes NZ. Steve Wow-- nice! It really is a sweet system. Is NZ getting a 'cane the equivalent of the Canadian Maritimes getting a 'cane? Or is it even more rare than that? Has NZ ever had a 65-kt tropical cyclone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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