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Aussie (& S-Hemisphere) Cyclone Action 2010-2011


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P.S. They explain their reasoning: http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/sh0911web.txt

Does that not hold water for you, Adam?

They're way too far north after it turns westward. Yes, a STH will build in and turn it west, but not back to Cairns.

As far as intensity goes, it's always a crap shoot, but the models indicate easterly shear plus dry air entrainment come in with the STH and ends up weakening the storm as it heads back to the west.

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Anthony is going to be an annoying POS for the next few days. Just hanging on around 35 kts until shear kills it off on Thursday. Bleh.

98S could be a decent storm. It'll probably bring gales to the Pilbara and then to Exmouth, but landfall looks unlikely.

And now, for your Aussie weather pr0n of the day:

msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!240!Australia!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2011012400!!chart.gif

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That's pretty much the same forecast track that weirdo cyclone Laurence from early last season took. It ended up being a Cat 4.

Anthony looks to be fizzling a bit, but the Tropical Low over the Kimberley is showing promise. The BoM brings it up to Cat 3 (AUS) within a few days, and it may curve S, toward the coast, as a ridge to the S breaks down a bit:

post-19-0-61584000-1295861237.gif

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I'm surprised that no one has expressed any interest in TC 08P (Wilma) which is a nice compact little storm that's well organized. It's about 120-180 nautical miles across-one of Josh's favorite type storms.

Steve

Hey Steve,

Thanks for keeping us in the loop Re: Wilma. I must confess I wasn't keeping a close eye on it because it's outside of the Aussie zone-- but you're totally right, it's my kinda cyclone. :)

Have you seen the latest JTWC forecast? It has the cyclone getting close to the extreme-N tip of New Zealand at nearly hurricane strength in a few days. That would be kind of interesting, as I think hurricanes are quite unusual down there. Thoughts about that?

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Have you seen the latest JTWC forecast? It has the cyclone getting close to the extreme-N tip of New Zealand at nearly hurricane strength in a few days. That would be kind of interesting, as I think hurricanes are quite unusual down there. Thoughts about that?

The pattern over there seems to be shooting everything towards the North Island...the last 2 recurvers and now this one will all end up down there.

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The pattern over there seems to be shooting everything towards the North Island...the last 2 recurvers and now this one will all end up down there.

Yep, it's like the Coral Sea is having their version of what we had last season: an East Coast fish festival. Extending the analogy, New Zealand is like their "Canadian Maritimes". :lol:

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There a lot of ambient dry air around, but as the flow turns easterly, it should mitigate the effects of the dry air. Shear is also decreasing.

Cool. A strengthening cyclone approaching Queensland would certainly wake things up a bit.

In other news, the Kimberley low show promise-- the BoM now brings it up to severe status in a few days-- but the forecast track remains resolutely parallel to the Pilbara coast beyond Exmouth. :sleepy:

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Cool. A strengthening cyclone approaching Queensland would certainly wake things up a bit.

Yeah, and of course after I bashed JTWC's forecast the other day, models have shifted that direction. Blind squirrel, acorn...

msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!120!Australia!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2011012500!!chart.gif

Also, the out periods look more interesting (and it's not just the Euro showing this):

msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!216!Australia!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2011012500!!chart.gif

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Wow. Those Euro runs are having a vaguely Larry 2006 vibe to 'em. Interesting.

Major Queensland landfalls are quite rare but huge news makers, given that the E coast is way more densely populated than the more cyclone-prone Western Australia. (I know you know this, Adam-- I'm just adding that for those who aren't as familiar with the region.)

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The JTWC has issued a Final Warning Re: Anthony, as it's degenerated further and increased vertical wind shear is expected in the near term. That having been said, the text portion of the forecast pointedly notes:

HOWEVER, NUMERICAL MODELS ARE INDICATING THE SYSTEM WILL REGENERATE AFTER TAU 60 AS UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS IMPROVE AND THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO A MOISTER ENVIRONMENT EAST OF CAIRNS.

In other news... They've classified the Kimberley low as Cyclone 10, and the forecast brings a strong Cat 1 (USA) just offshore of the Pilbara and recurving around the W shore of the continent in a few days:

post-19-0-37611100-1295973481.gif

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Cyclone Bianca is born-- current intensity 994 mb/30 kt (10-min). The latest forecast has the cyclone reaching severe (hurricane) intensity as it moves parallel to the Pilbara coast, with the center passing uncomfortably close to the major towns of Port Hedland and Karratha. For this reason, a large portion of the coast is under a Cyclone Warning. They max out the intensity at 75 kt at hour 60, followed by weakening as the cyclone hits shear:

post-19-0-76233500-1295982542.gif

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