k*** Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 well, it's been a nice first appetizer...hopefully dinner comes soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 16, 2011 Author Share Posted January 16, 2011 It's gotten a little stronger-- now 85 kt (10-min)/957 mb as per BoM and 85 kt (1-min) as per JTWC. Averaging those out yieaods a solid Cat 2. What's mildly interesting is that the forecasts suggest a vague threat to New Zealand. In fact, the JTWC has it still as a Cat-2 hurricane less than 24 hrs before it nears Auckland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValleyPA Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 It's gotten a little stronger-- now 85 kt (10-min)/957 mb as per BoM and 85 kt (1-min) as per JTWC. Averaging those out yieaods a solid Cat 2. What's mildly interesting is that the forecasts suggest a vague threat to New Zealand. In fact, the JTWC has it still as a Cat-2 hurricane less than 24 hrs before it nears Auckland. Saw that, too--sorry I'm not still there to host a landing party for you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 It's gotten a little stronger-- now 85 kt (10-min)/957 mb as per BoM and 85 kt (1-min) as per JTWC. Averaging those out yieaods a solid Cat 2. What's mildly interesting is that the forecasts suggest a vague threat to New Zealand. In fact, the JTWC has it still as a Cat-2 hurricane less than 24 hrs before it nears Auckland. It's so annoying and confusing that it's rated stronger now than 0z last night. It's clearly lost its eye and is getting more elongated. It looks like it is going to be a quick ET tomorrow night (EST) as it merges with Vania and another storm moving from Tasmania at to the South Island. Exposed area are going to see storm force gusts and a lot of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 it reminds me a little bit of paula after she kept just weirdly hanging on as a tiny blob...too bad there isn't some long range radar on new cal to check out some of her structure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 16, 2011 Author Share Posted January 16, 2011 Saw that, too--sorry I'm not still there to host a landing party for you! Hell, mo my dear! It's funny, because when I saw the NZ threat, I thought of you and was going to send you a PM. Not to go off topic, but when did you move back to the States? It must have been fairly recently. Is it nice to be back? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 16, 2011 Author Share Posted January 16, 2011 The cyclone has passed out of the BoM's area of responsibility. MetService NZ has issued a Cyclone Warning for Norfolk Island: A CYCLONE WARNING IS IN FORCE FOR NORFOLK ISLAND TROPICAL CYCLONE Zelia WAS CENTRED NEAR 20.6S 160.7E AT 2330 NFT on 16-Jan-2011 This Tropical Cyclone (957hPa, Catergory 3), with winds of 85 knots near the centre lies west of New Caledonia, about 1190 kilometres ( 640 nautical miles) northwest of Norfolk Island. The cyclone is expected to maintain a similar intensity over the next 12 hours, but then begin to weaken as it passes near Norfolk Island. Presently, the cyclone is forecast to pass to the southwest of the Island overnight Monday. At it's closest, the cyclone may pass within 60 to 120km southwest of Norfolk Island. The cyclone is then expected to continue moving southeast to lie approximately 400km southeast of Norfolk Island by midday Tuesday. FORECAST UNTIL MIDDAY TUESDAY Northeast winds are expected to rise to damaging gale force tonight, with an average speed of 40 knots gusting 60 knots. The winds are then likely to rise to destructive storm force for a brief time overnight Monday and early Tuesday, with an average speed of 50 knots gusting 80 knots. Winds are expected to turn northwest and ease to 35 knots gusting 50 knots around dawn Tuesday. Northwest winds should ease below gale by late Tuesday morning. Seas are expected to become high in the sector from north to east. A period of heavy rain is expected with the passage of the cyclone, with a chance of torrential downpours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 probably still a SS cat 2 looking increasingly microannular Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 16, 2011 Author Share Posted January 16, 2011 looking increasingly microannular Totally-- it's this little ring with no feeder bands. The whole system would take 45 mins to pass your location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Totally-- it's this little ring with no feeder bands. The whole system would take 45 mins to pass your location. which is why that forecast you posted above for norfolk island is likely to bust...the storm would have to be a direct hit for the island to get real gales Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 SATCON at 15z was 81 kts and SSD was 4.5/5.5 at 1432z. It's probably right on the H1/H2 edge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 which is why that forecast you posted above for norfolk island is likely to bust...the storm would have to be a direct hit for the island to get real gales Vania will actually help there. It's still got a big windfield on the order of 45-50 kts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Vania will actually help there. It's still got a big windfield on the order of 45-50 kts. oh, i forgot about vania's windfield. that storm sucks such ass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Man what a tiny little system. Its likely gonna get ripped apart as it continues to speed southeastward, but its pretty cool to watch right now! Nice spiral pattern on latest microwave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 interesting structural changes as this winds down...way more interesting that a simple decapitation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 what a foul IP low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 18, 2011 Author Share Posted January 18, 2011 what a foul IP low Ugh. Next, please! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 95p is a nice looking invest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Early next week, there is a shot for two TCs. One low will move from the GoC east across the Cape York and start developing on Sunday. The other is the tropical low the BOM is already watching, but it doesn't look like it moves over water until Tuesday or Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 21, 2011 Author Share Posted January 21, 2011 Early next week, there is a shot for two TCs. One low will move from the GoC east across the Cape York and start developing on Sunday. The other is the tropical low the BOM is already watching, but it doesn't look like it moves over water until Tuesday or Wednesday. Oh, yeah. I see there's a chance it can move out over the Joseph Bonaparte Gulf. That could be interesting, given it's moving NNE, in the general direction of Darwin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Oh, yeah. I see there's a chance it can move out over the Joseph Bonaparte Gulf. That could be interesting, given it's moving NNE, in the general direction of Darwin. All of the models show it wobbling around the Kimberley for the next couple of days, then eject it out to the SW early next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoastLow Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Any cyclone moving North and with any east in the border region of the NT/ WA is doing so only very briefly, I've never seen one track that way for very long at all. The general motion of that region for storms is for them to track south and west, they only travel east with any decent movement when they've weakened off and get caught up in a strong frontal system or similar. Regards, Andrew. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Any cyclone moving North and with any east in the border region of the NT/ WA is doing so only very briefly, I've never seen one track that way for very long at all. The general motion of that region for storms is for them to track south and west, they only travel east with any decent movement when they've weakened off and get caught up in a strong frontal system or similar. Regards, Andrew. I agree. It looks like 98S is going to head SW along the Kimberley and Pilbara coasts then develop as it heads toward Exmouth. If it wobbles offshore, it could develop sooner. I think 97P will develop tomorrow and head towards New Caledonia. After that, in typical Aussie fashion, the models are forecasting it to turn back west and head back toward SE QLD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 22, 2011 Author Share Posted January 22, 2011 Any cyclone moving North and with any east in the border region of the NT/ WA is doing so only very briefly, I've never seen one track that way for very long at all. The general motion of that region for storms is for them to track south and west, they only travel east with any decent movement when they've weakened off and get caught up in a strong frontal system or similar. Regards, Andrew. Yeah, thinking back at it, it was a bit silly of me to hint that it could threaten Darwin, given that there's very little climatological support for such motion. I don't know what I was thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Orange! <H1>Tropical Cyclone 3-day outlook for The Coral SeaIDQ10810Australian Government Bureau of MeteorologyBrisbaneTropical Cyclone 3-day outlook for The Coral SeaIssued at 2:30pm EST on Saturday the 22nd of January 2011 and valid until end ofTuesdayExisting Cyclones in the Eastern Region:Nil. Potential Cyclones:The monsoon trough remains active across north Queensland and the northern CoralSea. A low situated off the north tropical coast within the monsoon trough islikely to move further offshore and strengthen over the next few days. Sunday: Moderate Monday: Moderate Tuesday: Moderate NOTE: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being atropical cyclone in the Region for each day.Very low: less than 5% Low: 5% - 20%Moderate: 20% - 50% High: Over 50%The area of coverage for this outlook is the Coral Sea and Northern Tasman Seawest of 160E.Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at:http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone </H1> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aslkahuna Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Incidentally, we have TC 08P out near Samoa which is expected to reached 75 kt peak intensity. What's even more interesting about 08P is its name-Wilma. Thus the name Wilma has made the circuit from WPAC to the ATL and now SPAC. Steve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 23, 2011 Author Share Posted January 23, 2011 Cyclone Anthony has formed suddenly in the Coral Sea. Willis Island radar suggests a tight surface circulation. It's moving away from the Queensland coast, however, the BoM's long-range forecast has it doubling back toward land in a few days-- as per the model suggestions Adam mentioned earlier (above). Something to keep an eye on! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoastLow Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Anthony should form up well, for a while. If it turns and stays close, there's a lot of very warm water for it. These QLD cyclones tend to drift all over the place so where it ends up is anybody's guess! Although I might call a crossing around Mackay in a few days. But hard to tell and it's only a suspicion based on what these systems tend to do. Unusual for it to form so close in to the QLD coast, they typically don't form there, tend to drift over from the Gulf or from further out to sea. But there's so much moisture trapped in teh coastal land at the moment it could contribute the heat and moisture a cyclone needs without land being so destructive to it, although the mountains are very close to the coast in this region so land interference is always an issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Cold cloud tops, but it needs some work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 23, 2011 Author Share Posted January 23, 2011 The JTWC forecast is interesting: they have it turning around and accelerating toward Cairns (a very large town) as a hurricane by Day 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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