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Aussie (& S-Hemisphere) Cyclone Action 2010-2011


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1) Where did you get that spaghetti chart?

2) Vania is going to be the bigger deal to NZ, even if it's sucked out loud the last few days

it randomly was on NRL instead of the normal track image, so i posted it.

when i am actually looking for spaghetti plots in the SH, i use emanuel's site: http://wind.mit.edu/~emanuel/storm.html

check out this gem: one of the chips ensembles bringing zelia above 170 kts :scooter:

temp3.png

its initial perturbation must be to remove vania

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it randomly was on NRL instead of the normal track image, so i posted it.

when i am actually looking for spaghetti plots in the SH, i use emanuel's site: http://wind.mit.edu/~emanuel/storm.html

check out this gem: one of the chips ensembles bringing zelia above 170 kts :scooter:

its initial perturbation must be to remove vania

Ok, that's what I normally use, too. I was hoping you figured out a way to hack into the military computers for track guidance.

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The Aussies have it at 80kt 10-min, which is like 90-95kt 1-min. That's more realistic. They also show it near its peak intensity. I think it still has time to reach major before it starts getting sheared out

That seems about right. As for peak, the best IR frame was a while back but I am hoping the eye can pop out for a more sustained period later on today. The last couple frames have it showing up better now. Outflow still looks really good, shear is low, and SST's are good.

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I'm not sure what drugs JTWC was on to only make it 60 kts at 12z

JTWC's interests in the S PAC/S IO or even N IO are not nearly as high as they are for the N PAC...as a result alot less effort tends to go into their forecasts in those areas and usually the other TC agenices like BOM or sometimes even Meteo France for the IO are better.

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