am19psu Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 look at that track consensus...NZ will have to issue a naked swirl warning in the coming days. 1) Where did you get that spaghetti chart? 2) Vania is going to be the bigger deal to NZ, even if it's sucked out loud the last few days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 1) Where did you get that spaghetti chart? 2) Vania is going to be the bigger deal to NZ, even if it's sucked out loud the last few days it randomly was on NRL instead of the normal track image, so i posted it. when i am actually looking for spaghetti plots in the SH, i use emanuel's site: http://wind.mit.edu/~emanuel/storm.html check out this gem: one of the chips ensembles bringing zelia above 170 kts its initial perturbation must be to remove vania Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 it randomly was on NRL instead of the normal track image, so i posted it. when i am actually looking for spaghetti plots in the SH, i use emanuel's site: http://wind.mit.edu/~emanuel/storm.html check out this gem: one of the chips ensembles bringing zelia above 170 kts its initial perturbation must be to remove vania Ok, that's what I normally use, too. I was hoping you figured out a way to hack into the military computers for track guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Ok, that's what I normally use, too. I was hoping you figured out a way to hack into the military computers for track guidance. nope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 15, 2011 Author Share Posted January 15, 2011 look at that track consensus...NZ will have to issue a naked swirl warning in the coming days. lolz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 should be really nice later on today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 I'm not sure what drugs JTWC was on to only make it 60 kts at 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 I'm not sure what drugs JTWC was on to only make it 60 kts at 12z yeah...looks 80+ definitely gonna make a run at major Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 the jtwc doesnt bring this above 75 kts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 i like this system so i'll continue to post images of it regardless of responses Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 The Aussies have it at 80kt 10-min, which is like 90-95kt 1-min. That's more realistic. They also show it near its peak intensity. I think it still has time to reach major before it starts getting sheared out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 The Aussies have it at 80kt 10-min, which is like 90-95kt 1-min. That's more realistic. They also show it near its peak intensity. I think it still has time to reach major before it starts getting sheared out That seems about right. As for peak, the best IR frame was a while back but I am hoping the eye can pop out for a more sustained period later on today. The last couple frames have it showing up better now. Outflow still looks really good, shear is low, and SST's are good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 looks like we still have a little bit of an open eyewall on one side and a moat forming on the other...that's probably why the aussies are thinking it's peaking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 I'm not sure what drugs JTWC was on to only make it 60 kts at 12z JTWC's interests in the S PAC/S IO or even N IO are not nearly as high as they are for the N PAC...as a result alot less effort tends to go into their forecasts in those areas and usually the other TC agenices like BOM or sometimes even Meteo France for the IO are better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Cloud tops below -70ºC, if I remember my scales correctly... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Yea its looking rather impressive now... certainly cat 3 worthy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 good morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 what an awesome micro...where is josh to salivate over this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 what an awesome micro...where is josh to salivate over this? Seriously. The gale radius is <100nm and it's gotta be close to Cat 3. SATCON had it at 94 kts at 18z and it's only improved since. The last two IR frames are awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Seeing cyclonic curvature in the southern hemisphere messes with my head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 15, 2011 Author Share Posted January 15, 2011 Definite cutiecane-- er, I mean microcane-- material. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Seeing cyclonic curvature in the southern hemisphere messes with my head. Just show up more often and you'll get used to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 also, check out this link...very nice http://www.weatherzone.com.au/satellite.jsp?lt=wzstate&lc=qld&img=sat_vis&ane=1&anf=1∧=1&ana=3&anb=333&anc=3&lye=1&lyf=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Dvorak is up to 5.5 from SSD. That's a major. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 the eye is clearing out a little but overall it looks a bit stretched that northern outflow channel is bangin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 the eye is clearing out a little but overall it looks a bit stretched that northern outflow channel is bangin Yeah, it's probably near it's peak now. It's about to run head first into shear from Vania. Vania was such a productive cyclone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Yeah, it's probably near it's peak now. It's about to run head first into shear from Vania. Vania was such a productive cyclone. it sucks that such a POS storm like vania can ruin something so good... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 the eye is clearing out a little but overall it looks a bit stretched JTWC: "ZELIA CONTINUES TO MOVE SE AT AN INCREDIBLE PACE...POSSIBLY TILTING THE EYE STRUCTURE...AS LG HAS FILLED THE EYE AGAIN" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 16, 2011 Author Share Posted January 16, 2011 it sucks that such a POS storm like vania can ruin something so good... Yeah, it seems unfair, somehow. Looks totally great right now-- a really nice system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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