k*** Posted January 2, 2011 Share Posted January 2, 2011 too many competing vorts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 2, 2011 Author Share Posted January 2, 2011 So we've gotten to January with only a single, lame-azz namewaster in the Coral Sea. It's kind of like how our season started-- but without the Alex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Models are showing two TCs, one in the Arafura Sea and one near New Caledonia, by early next week. It looks like the genesis mechanism is monsoon trough breakdown, so the method is reasonable. I guess it's hard to get excited for something 5-7 days away after all of the false starts this year, especially with the MJO going unfavorable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 5, 2011 Author Share Posted January 5, 2011 Models are showing two TCs, one in the Arafura Sea and one near New Caledonia, by early next week. It looks like the genesis mechanism is monsoon trough breakdown, so the method is reasonable. I guess it's hard to get excited for something 5-7 days away after all of the false starts this year, especially with the MJO going unfavorable. Yeah, it's been mega-lame so far. I guess it's a good thing (for me), given I've been so nuts with work. Anyhoo, thanks for the heads-up-- it's good to know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Could we actually get two TCs this week? Both 91S and 93P are on the verge of developing, if shear drops soon. 91S looks better on MW, 93P looks better on IR. 91S is the one that may threaten land, but neither one is expected to intensify all that much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 11, 2011 Author Share Posted January 11, 2011 Could we actually get two TCs this week? Both 91S and 93P are on the verge of developing, if shear drops soon. 91S looks better on MW, 93P looks better on IR. 91S is the one that may threaten land, but neither one is expected to intensify all that much. Oh, interesting. These prospects caught me by surprise. The BoM is issuing advices on one of them, and the long-range forecast implies a possible threat to the Pilbara. The 72-hr forecast has the intensity at 954 mb/85 kt (10-min)-- pushing Cat 3 on our scale. From the Technical Bulletin: Models all indicate the system will recurve to head east towards the coast within the next 12 hours and will again recurve, this time to head westwards around 12Z on 14 Jan [+/- 12 hours]. There is significant divergence between the models on how fast the system will move while on the east southeastwards track with some models bringing the system onto the coast while others imply no coastal impact, with the system recurving well off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Oh, interesting. These prospects caught me by surprise. The BoM is issuing advices on one of them. And the long-range forecast implies an eventual threat to the Pilbara: Yeah, that one is 91S. It currently has the 30 kts of shear overhead, but the shear should weaken over the next 24 hours. Invest 93P is out by New Caledonia and might threaten New Zealand as it transitions (I know, boo, but it's still a forecast I have to make) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Oh, interesting. These prospects caught me by surprise. The BoM is issuing advices on one of them, and the long-range forecast implies a possible threat to the Pilbara. The 72-hr forecast has the intensity at 954 mb/85 kt (10-min)-- pushing Cat 3 on our scale. Wow. I was not expecting that. I don't have access to STIPS (and the graphs aren't even available until it gets a name), but that seems incredibly bullish considering what it looks like now. That said, this is one forecast I'll be happy to bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 11, 2011 Author Share Posted January 11, 2011 Wow. I was not expecting that. I don't have access to STIPS (and the graphs aren't even available until it gets a name), but that seems incredibly bullish considering what it looks like now. That said, this is one forecast I'll be happy to bust. Yeah, it would be cool to get some action finally. By the way, the latest forecast is even more bullish, bringing the pressure down to 948 mb by 72 hrs. The forecast 85 kt (10-min) is at the very top of their Cat 3 and at the very bottom of our Cat 3-- a formidable cyclone. Since the BoM doesn't plot out to 72 hrs in the public forecast map, I took the liberty below. There's still a lot of model divergence-- however, there's clearly a threat-- especially given that the cyclone will be strengthening as it approaches: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Yeah, it would be cool to get some action finally. By the way, the latest forecast is even more bullish, bringing the pressure down to 948 mb by 72 hrs. The forecast 85 kt (10-min) is at the very top of their Cat 3 and at the very bottom of our Cat 3-- a formidable cyclone. Since the BoM doesn't plot out to 72 hrs in the public forecast map, I took the liberty below. There's still a lot of model divergence-- however, there's clearly a threat-- especially given that the cyclone will be strengthening as it approaches: Looks like they're going with the GFS solution. The Euro recurves early and misses everything. I don't have a good insight, so I just took a blended track towards Exmouth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 12, 2011 Author Share Posted January 12, 2011 Cyclone Vince has formed-- current intensity 987 mb/40 kt (10-min). Although the 48-hr forecast implies a threat to the coast, the Technical Bulletin says all models now agree on a sharp recurve to the W, well offshore: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 I love the Aussie Basin. This storm is forecasted to cover line 25 degrees in longitude, but like 3 degrees in latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kwt Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 00z ECM develops something like 5 systems in the space of 10 days, maybe the Aus basin will pull an Atlantic like trick and have most of its major activity during the second half of the season, certainly looking that way right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Vania starting to blossom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 fugly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 94p looks legit for an invest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Vince looks like hot garbage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Vania looks like hot garbage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 13, 2011 Author Share Posted January 13, 2011 Yeah-- crap at both sides of the continent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Still thinking that Vania will eventually affect the North Island of New Zealand, but as a transitioning cyclone, similar to what happens to Nova Scotia in the Atlantic. Also thinking the that the forecasts for 94P are off. All of the models are showing entrainment into Vania. My guess is they are underplaying how quickly 94P could strengthen. I'd bet on a binary interaction instead, sending 94P towards Fiji. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 classic aussie track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 13, 2011 Author Share Posted January 13, 2011 Lame. Thx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 The latest IR doesn't look all that good, but Zelia might be for real, y'all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 14, 2011 Author Share Posted January 14, 2011 The latest IR doesn't look all that good, but Zelia might be for real, y'all. Is that Zelia? That looks stronger than a TS. P.S. Vince has degenerated to a Tropical Low. lolz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Is that Zelia? That looks stronger than a TS. P.S. Vince has degenerated to a Tropical Low. lolz Yeah, I'm waiting for another MW to confirm, because that was a big jump in structure that doesn't seem supported by the IR, but it's in the right spot. Vince sucks. Vania sucks. Blah there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 I'm at the upper end of the intensity guidance, but not completely unjustified by the MW image. I have Zelia making S-S Cat 2 tomorrow, with a Cat 3 possible before Vania shears it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Here's the latest crappy AMSU image, which appears to support the WindSat above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Looks like the eyewall construction isn't totally complete. Still looks pretty solid considering there is a bunch of monsoon crap stealing inflow. I'd bet it's stronger than the 55 kts JTWC is currently advising (and only 45 kts from the BOM). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 look at that track consensus...NZ will have to issue a naked swirl warning in the coming days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 i hate vania...total POS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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