HurricaneJosh Posted April 16, 2011 Author Share Posted April 16, 2011 It's a little stronger-- Cat 2 AUS-- and headed for the S-most Indonesian islands. JTWC has it at 50 kt (1-min). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted April 16, 2011 Share Posted April 16, 2011 It's a little stronger-- Cat 2 AUS-- and headed for the S-most Indonesian islands. JTWC has it at 50 kt (1-min). Meh. My forecast hasn't changed. Middling TS dying by mid-week. A little squally on Pulau Sumba. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted April 17, 2011 Share Posted April 17, 2011 So the Aussies dropped it and JTWC only has it at T2.5, but Errol looks more impressive now than it has at any point in its lifecycle. It doesn't really affect the forecast, but it's mildly interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alby_14 Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 Ill be flying through the remains of that poor lil Errol thing in a few hours as I head to Bali from Darwin. It had better give me some turbulence or something to remember this season by... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted April 19, 2011 Author Share Posted April 19, 2011 Ill be flying through the remains of that poor lil Errol thing in a few hours as I head to Bali from Darwin. It had better give me some turbulence or something to remember this season by... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted April 19, 2011 Author Share Posted April 19, 2011 P.S. Yasi was a spectacular event-- and pretty-much the only event worth remembering, except perhaps Carlos. This Aussie season reminds me a bit of the 1980 and 1992 Atlantic seasons-- each of which is remembered for a single, intense cyclone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 Should certainly be interesting... Cold core, extratropical system, transitioning tropically, becoming fully warm core for a day, then undergoing ET between Sydney and Auckland (in GFS/ECM world). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 Where do you pick Cat one? West of New Caledonia is my bet. Either way, impressed by your call. Cold core, Aust coast rear? It doesn't really become symmetric until south of New Caledonia. I'm actually really interested in this, since the Aussies don't recognize subtropical systems, so I'm curious how they will handle tropical transition. If the models are to be believed, this is going to be a monster. I'd guess if it is going to affect land anywhere, it'd probably be the North Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 The jet max over the Coral Sea is kind of interesting. You don't usually jet streaks digging that far into the tropics. In any case, that's what will start cyclogenesis today. As an upper low cuts off due to anti-cyclonic wavebreaking, we'll see shear drop and the system will start to develop convectively instead of baroclinically. Looks like New Zealand will see "Canada-like" effects from it next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted April 28, 2011 Author Share Posted April 28, 2011 Pardon my ignorance... but "Canada like effects" ? New Zealand gets the same sort of post-tropical, transitioning-type cyclones that Canada does in the Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 Thanks mate, Thought on its future beyond the tropics? On that it's pretty rare for Oz to get a sub tropical TC but not in the US, why so?. Just a guess, but the warm water doesn't extend far enough from the Equator for a mid latitude system to get parked over water warm enough to support a transition. Atlantic/Gulf, the 26ºC isotherm gets up near 35ºN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 On that it's pretty rare for Oz to get a sub tropical TC but not in the US, why so?. They're not that rare, they're just not named. Braun et al (in press) has shown that Australia has the second most frequent occurrences of ST cyclogenesis in the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted April 29, 2011 Share Posted April 29, 2011 This low is deepening baroclinically at a decent pace right now, but all of the convection is in the warm sector. Should be interesting to see how it wraps around the center over the next 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted May 1, 2011 Share Posted May 1, 2011 What a lame, IP result Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted May 1, 2011 Author Share Posted May 1, 2011 What a lame, IP result lolz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted May 2, 2011 Share Posted May 2, 2011 Oh well, I guess it's going Canadian (south island). It's still deepish and bound for the west coast. It actually does have a warm core in the models right now, but it's lacking deep convection about the center. It's more warm seclusion-like than tropical-like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoastLow Posted May 5, 2011 Share Posted May 5, 2011 I think the reason we don't care too much about transitioning storms is the shape of our coastline. It curves back in the region the storms tend to transition through, so no real concerns there. Whereas the North American continent hooks further east as you go north, meaning extra tropical storms have a tendency to do further damage as they head away from the equator. Lord Howe and Norfolk islands tend to get quite a few transitioning storms pass close by in the Tasman sea, worth keeping an eye on observations from both those islands when a storm heads through that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted May 11, 2011 Author Share Posted May 11, 2011 Our season is just about to start... Game over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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