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Aussie (& S-Hemisphere) Cyclone Action 2010-2011


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Where do you pick Cat one? West of New Caledonia is my bet.

Either way, impressed by your call. Cold core, Aust coast rear?

It doesn't really become symmetric until south of New Caledonia. I'm actually really interested in this, since the Aussies don't recognize subtropical systems, so I'm curious how they will handle tropical transition.

If the models are to be believed, this is going to be a monster. I'd guess if it is going to affect land anywhere, it'd probably be the North Island.

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The jet max over the Coral Sea is kind of interesting. You don't usually jet streaks digging that far into the tropics. In any case, that's what will start cyclogenesis today. As an upper low cuts off due to anti-cyclonic wavebreaking, we'll see shear drop and the system will start to develop convectively instead of baroclinically.

Looks like New Zealand will see "Canada-like" effects from it next week.

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Thanks mate,

Thought on its future beyond the tropics?

On that it's pretty rare for Oz to get a sub tropical TC but not in the US, why so?.

Just a guess, but the warm water doesn't extend far enough from the Equator for a mid latitude system to get parked over water warm enough to support a transition. Atlantic/Gulf, the 26ºC isotherm gets up near 35ºN

2011117spsst.png

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Oh well, I guess it's going Canadian (south island). It's still deepish and bound for the west coast.

It actually does have a warm core in the models right now, but it's lacking deep convection about the center. It's more warm seclusion-like than tropical-like.

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I think the reason we don't care too much about transitioning storms is the shape of our coastline. It curves back in the region the storms tend to transition through, so no real concerns there. Whereas the North American continent hooks further east as you go north, meaning extra tropical storms have a tendency to do further damage as they head away from the equator.

Lord Howe and Norfolk islands tend to get quite a few transitioning storms pass close by in the Tasman sea, worth keeping an eye on observations from both those islands when a storm heads through that area.

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