am19psu Posted April 2, 2011 Share Posted April 2, 2011 OK, so what's your latest call-- Cat 1 (USA) between Exmouth and Port Hedland? No, I think a TS at landfall. If it makes the turn southward, which I am still leaning towards, it's going to get sheared to hell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted April 2, 2011 Author Share Posted April 2, 2011 No, I think a TS at landfall. If it makes the turn southward, which I am still leaning towards, it's going to get sheared to hell. This scenario went from hawt to lame in less than 24 hrs. Grrrr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted April 3, 2011 Author Share Posted April 3, 2011 The JTWC is sticking firm to the idea of a solid Cat 1 USA (80 kt (1-min)) coming ashore between Exmouth and Port Hedland. The discussion is interesting, as they explicitly indicate that they're discounting the dynamic models, which show a weaker system staying W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 storms this year have had ridiculous land interaction issues...i'd rather they fish and at least give us some nice satellite shots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted April 4, 2011 Author Share Posted April 4, 2011 The latest JTWC is a total buzzkill: instead of curving it toward the shore as a strengthening 'cane, it now curves it away from land and weakens it. Lame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted April 4, 2011 Author Share Posted April 4, 2011 lolz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted April 4, 2011 Share Posted April 4, 2011 storms this year have had ridiculous land interaction issues...i'd rather they fish and at least give us some nice satellite shots Is it normal for this basin to have so many huggers? This is only my 3rd season really playing attention to it, it was particularly annoying this year. On the other hand, we didn't have many ridiculous tracks this year like the last two years. lolz lolz indeed. At least the season will be over in about 10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted April 4, 2011 Share Posted April 4, 2011 Yasi was exciting, but I was sort of figuring on an action filled season, myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted April 4, 2011 Share Posted April 4, 2011 So, just about every model is showing a barotropic breakdown of the monsoon trough late this week. Theoretically, we could get a TC or two out of it, but given the way this season has gone, I'm not holding my breath. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted April 5, 2011 Share Posted April 5, 2011 So, just about every model is showing a barotropic breakdown of the monsoon trough late this week. Theoretically, we could get a TC or two out of it, but given the way this season has gone, I'm not holding my breath. I guess TC 20 fizzling will only add to the vort strip in the monsoon trough, enhancing the chances of barotropic breakdown. Glass half full, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted April 5, 2011 Author Share Posted April 5, 2011 I guess TC 20 fizzling will only add to the vort strip in the monsoon trough, enhancing the chances of barotropic breakdown. Glass half full, right? Hey. What's up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted April 5, 2011 Share Posted April 5, 2011 Nada. This monsoon breakdown potential is probably our last shot for the season. Once the MJO moves through, it will be tough to get cyclogenesis in the Aussie Region and it's getting pretty late in the season. I see you're back behind the Iron Curtain, comrade Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted April 5, 2011 Author Share Posted April 5, 2011 Nada. This monsoon breakdown potential is probably our last shot for the season. Once the MJO moves through, it will be tough to get cyclogenesis in the Aussie Region and it's getting pretty late in the season. Yeah, I'm not exactly holding my breath at this point. April is late. Period. (However, Monica 2006 happened in April. ) I see you're back behind the Iron Curtain, comrade Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted April 5, 2011 Share Posted April 5, 2011 Just to give people an idea of what I am talking about with barotropic breakdown, a strip of vorticity is barotropically unstable if the absolute voricity gradient changes sign across the strip. That's hard to diagnose in real life, but tell tale signs in the models can show what is going on. Here is the 0z GFS at T+12 (i.e. 8AM EDT this morning). Note the strip of cyclonic vorticity stretching from Darwin to Fiji in blue in the upper right panel. It's difficult to diagnose whether the vort gradient actually changes sign or not, but by T+60, 5 distinct vort maxes have developed in the flow. Of course, there is likely some latent heat release feedback as well, but once something perturbs the flow, these vort maxes appear to grow at roughly the same rate and at roughly the same distance apart, which agrees with theory. Ferreira and Schubert (1997) wrote a paper up on this phenomenon related to ITCZ breakdown, but monsoon trough breakdown would occur analogously. http://schubert.atmos.colostate.edu/publications/refereed/nietoandschubert1997_barotropic.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted April 6, 2011 Author Share Posted April 6, 2011 Just to give people an idea of what I am talking about with barotropic breakdown, a strip of vorticity is barotropically unstable if the absolute voricity gradient changes sign across the strip. That's hard to diagnose in real life, but tell tale signs in the models can show what is going on. Here is the 0z GFS at T+12 (i.e. 8AM EDT this morning). ... Note the strip of cyclonic vorticity stretching from Darwin to Fiji in blue in the upper right panel. It's difficult to diagnose whether the vort gradient actually changes sign or not, but by T+60, 5 distinct vort maxes have developed in the flow. Of course, there is likely some latent heat release feedback as well, but once something perturbs the flow, these vort maxes appear to grow at roughly the same rate and at roughly the same distance apart, which agrees with theory. ... Ferreira and Schubert (1997) wrote a paper up on this phenomenon related to ITCZ breakdown, but monsoon trough breakdown would occur analogously. http://schubert.atmos.colostate.edu/publications/refereed/nietoandschubert1997_barotropic.pdf Interesting. So what's the logical end result here-- a series of weak cyclones fighting for the same resources and messing with each others' outflow? Or does one become the "alphacane" and dominate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted April 6, 2011 Author Share Posted April 6, 2011 The BoM's Outlook our of Brisbane today seems to illustrate what Adam is talking about-- kind of: There are currently no significant lows in the region. A weak monsoon trough lies over the far northern Coral Sea with one or two embedded lows. The trough is likely to deepen a little from Thursday, though any lows on the trough should remain weak, or show slow development, while moving east-southeast away from Queensland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted April 6, 2011 Share Posted April 6, 2011 Interesting. So what's the logical end result here-- a series of weak cyclones fighting for the same resources and messing with each others' outflow? Or does one become the "alphacane" and dominate? It can be either. It depends on spacing and whether some of the unstable disturbances grow more quickly than others due to non-linear feedbacks. In the Ferreira and Schubert paper, they noted that sometimes nothing interesting happens, sometimes a single alphacane forms, and sometimes multiple TCs form. The GFS/CMC are forecasting two cyclones forming, one in the Gulf and the other in the Coral Sea. The Coral Sea system fishes, but the GoC system has a chance to be interesting. Of course, the Euro doesn't show any development, so that solution is on the table as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 Interesting. So what's the logical end result here-- a series of weak cyclones fighting for the same resources and messing with each others' outflow? Or does one become the "alphacane" and dominate? By the way, the former looks likely here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alby_14 Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 Boring... We just had our latest, and probably last, widespread rain/monsoon event for the season here in the NT during the last week, with yet another widespread flood event from the Kimberley right through to the GoC. Many places here in the NT have topped 2000mm, with quite a few surpassing 3000mm. Im not holding out for any more TC's with the MJO on the way out, bye bye wet season. This one will be remembered for floods, weak systems, and the mighty Yasi. Bring on the GoM cruisers and WPAC slammers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted April 7, 2011 Author Share Posted April 7, 2011 Boring... We just had our latest, and probably last, widespread rain/monsoon event for the season here in the NT during the last week, with yet another widespread flood event from the Kimberley right through to the GoC. Many places here in the NT have topped 2000mm, with quite a few surpassing 3000mm. Im not holding out for any more TC's with the MJO on the way out, bye bye wet season. This one will be remembered for floods, weak systems, and the mighty Yasi. Bring on the GoM cruisers and WPAC slammers. Guess what came in the mail yesterday!! What cool things to receive unexpectedly-- it brightened my day. The calendar is now hanging in my office, and the Tracy book is on my nighttable-- I can't wait to curl up with it. By the way, are the pics in the calendar all from around the the NT-- and is the June image Darwin? Beautiful shots. Thank you very much for your thoughtfulness! I should send you a book about California earthquakes as an offering of thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alby_14 Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 Haha, AWESOME! Glad it made to you 2nd time around Couldnt blame Australia Post for the initial stuff up, sorry I got it wrong. Yeh all the photos are from the NT, and the June photo you mentioned is taken from the Darwin CBD. MickK, a member on NAC, took that particular one. The Tracy book isnt full of facts and technical information, but is interesting as it details alot of first hand accounts, and personal experiences. Next year before the start of the Aussie TC season, I would like to run a comp of sorts, with the winners of various categories recieving a prize like what I sent to Josh. And I promise it will be delivered, even if it takes me 2 goes to get the address right... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 FWIW, you can see the convective signature of the vort maxes I was posting about (Darwin, GoC, Coral Sea). Pathetic little things aren't they? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted April 8, 2011 Author Share Posted April 8, 2011 Haha, AWESOME! Glad it made to you 2nd time around Couldnt blame Australia Post for the initial stuff up, sorry I got it wrong. Yeh all the photos are from the NT, and the June photo you mentioned is taken from the Darwin CBD. MickK, a member on NAC, took that particular one. The Tracy book isnt full of facts and technical information, but is interesting as it details alot of first hand accounts, and personal experiences. Next year before the start of the Aussie TC season, I would like to run a comp of sorts, with the winners of various categories recieving a prize like what I sent to Josh. And I promise it will be delivered, even if it takes me 2 goes to get the address right... Very cool. The calendar has whetted my appetite to get there and see the Top End (and the rest of Australia) soon. It's gorgeous up there. Also, Darwin looks to be a handsome city, based on that picture. Re: the Tracy book, that's exactly what I expected-- that it would be more personal accounts and stuff-- which is cool, as it's nice to have this sort of info to balance out all of the technical knowledge. We get so analytical about these events it's easy to forget they actually affect people (at least I do, sometimes). By the way, the pics are very cool. The completely stripped appearance of the trees continues to suggest to me that it had to have been a Cat 4 on the USA scale. (The BoM's official estimate only makes it a strong Cat 3.) Thanks again for these treats. Re: the contest-- yep, we'll make it happen for next season. FWIW, you can see the convective signature of the vort maxes I was posting about (Darwin, GoC, Coral Sea). Pathetic little things aren't they? Yeah, totally. Like a littler of puppycanes. I'm about ready to give up on Oz for this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted April 14, 2011 Share Posted April 14, 2011 what an epic bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted April 15, 2011 Share Posted April 15, 2011 In somewhat of a surprise, TC Errol formed overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted April 15, 2011 Author Share Posted April 15, 2011 How random. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted April 15, 2011 Share Posted April 15, 2011 It's not going to affect anyone except whomever lives on Pulau Sumba. I doubt it makes it to hurricane strength, either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted April 15, 2011 Author Share Posted April 15, 2011 It's not going to affect anyone except whomever lives on Pulau Sumba. I doubt it makes it to hurricane strength, either. Ugh. Next! Or... Maybe not. It's game over, I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted April 15, 2011 Share Posted April 15, 2011 it's pretty cute...you really doubt it'll make hurricane status, adam? looks ~55kts now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted April 15, 2011 Share Posted April 15, 2011 it's pretty cute...you really doubt it'll make hurricane status, adam? looks ~55kts now It's right on the southern side of a shear axis. In my words this morning, I mentioned that RI is possible because of its small size if it stays south of the shear, but the long term synoptics don't look good since the storm is plowing into it. d(intensity)/dt is always tough with small storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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