HurricaneJosh Posted March 30, 2011 Author Share Posted March 30, 2011 The BoM has initiated advices on the Tropical Low. The forecast track has it moving W and then WSW, skirting N of the Tiwi Islands as it spins up into a weak cyclone in a couple of days. Nothing too exciting at this point-- but, hey, it's something to watch. It's getting rather late in the season, so my expectations are managed, let's just say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alby_14 Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Gday peoples. We are now under a TC watch here in Darwin Probably wont be anything too windy, more likely alot of rain at this stage. The longer it can stall north of the Cobourg Peninsula the better before moving SW eventually. I dont have alot of time so ill just post the latest 2 UKMET co-ords I plotted on google earth and some various models. Sorry about the rushed job and different scale of the google earth screen dumps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alby_14 Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 cont... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alby_14 Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 cont Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 It definitely looks like more of a rain event. Models are pretty locked on a track through the JB Gulf and then into the Kimberley. I doubt winds get above 50-55 kt (10-min). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Alby's GFS looked halfway wound up. BOM seems to keep it offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted March 30, 2011 Author Share Posted March 30, 2011 Blah-- looks like a bit of a dud. The highlight of this one is that it provoked a special appearance by alby_14. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alby_14 Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Lol. Another wet and weak system, thankfully im a glutten for rain so im soaking it all up and enjoying it nonetheless! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 I blame boomer for making this season bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Naso fast? All the models shifted west today which means 91S will have more time over water. It looks like all of the guidance was underplaying the strength of the ridge south of Australia. The Euro takes a monster towards Exmouth. I don't see that happening, but we could see a H1/H2 type landfall near Port Hedland early next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Blame me? Bloody hell, I gave you the best off thread topic you've had in the past six months.... you all loved it. Ed as Al Schwerigan (sic), Josh the patriot defending Saffir to the death and all the while K... you took the piss out of both of them. I admire your perversity. In addition we had Yasi, Anthony, Carlos etc et al. On second thoughts... I really do admire your perversity. It has been a "crackling" good season for all. I;ve seen web pages, six months to Australian tornado chasing season. http://www.australiasevereweather.com/ And with any luck, you can enjoy Florida getting 3 or 4 storms, maybe a major thrown in, and unlike the NT, dense enough populaton for U-Tubes galore. Well, you had Yasi. And I was really expecting an all time epic year back in November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Dearest Al, Ahh writes this from me new Atari damn fangeled computer. Ahh mus say dis here thing is amazin. But amm flummoxed. What the gaddam is u tube. Over here these damm ozis look at what happened. The droughts, the floods, the cyclones, the fires and be goddamed if they don't damm well think about just think about cleanin up. Stoopid muthas thank that being the bbiggest and damm best aint everything. Seems they maght even all come back to wheres them storms damm hit, not liek norleans, but goddam they even thought to vacuate peoples when they knew stuff was abearin down. Anyways, they hope youse all have a bigger an better one. Ah will show em when ah get this damm U tube thing up and a runnin. Cheers mate. Having had quite a few Swans, Emus, and a few VBs back in the day in Freemantle and Perth, the Australians seem like nice, regular folks. The part of WA I was in almost had a San Diego type mellow vibe. So what happened to you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Enough. Use the other thread in OT if you want to keep this conversation going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted March 31, 2011 Author Share Posted March 31, 2011 Naso fast? All the models shifted west today which means 91S will have more time over water. It looks like all of the guidance was underplaying the strength of the ridge south of Australia. The Euro takes a monster towards Exmouth. I don't see that happening, but we could see a H1/H2 type landfall near Port Hedland early next week. Oh, interesting. I was wondering, based on the BoM forecast, what might happen once it clears the Kimberley. Why do you think Port Hedland and not way further W, like the Euro? Do you see a George-2007-like hairpin turn toward the coast-- or do you see a coast skimmer? Enough. Use the other thread in OT if you want to keep this conversation going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 Why do you think Port Hedland and not way further W, like the Euro? Do you see a George-2007-like hairpin turn toward the coast-- or do you see a coast skimmer? Consensus and continuity more than anything else. I don't have a lot of confidence that today's runs handled the ridge correctly either, so I didn't want to take a big swing on the forecast. Since the ridge is progressive, my guess is it will make a sharp turn versus riding the coast at an angle. To be honest, with major model switches, it's easy to bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted March 31, 2011 Author Share Posted March 31, 2011 Consensus and continuity more than anything else. I don't have a lot of confidence that today's runs handled the ridge correctly either, so I didn't want to take a big swing on the forecast. Since the ridge is progressive, my guess is it will make a sharp turn versus riding the coast at an angle. To be honest, with major model switches, it's easy to bust. OK, gotcha-- thanks. P.S. Does your official forecast bring a 'cane ashore near Port Hedland, or is that just an idea you're sharing here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted March 31, 2011 Share Posted March 31, 2011 OK, gotcha-- thanks. P.S. Does your official forecast bring a 'cane ashore near Port Hedland, or is that just an idea you're sharing here? We don't issue intensity forecasts until it gets a name, but if we did, that's what I would have put out today. The track I issued is towards Port Hedland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted March 31, 2011 Author Share Posted March 31, 2011 We don't issue intensity forecasts until it gets a name, but if we did, that's what I would have put out today. The track I issued is towards Port Hedland. OK, gotcha. By the way, thanks for the very interesting eMail Re: the upcoming NATL season-- will respond today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted April 1, 2011 Author Share Posted April 1, 2011 The latest BoM forecast suggests an increasing down-the-road threat to the Pilbara-- showing a strengthening cyclone heading in that general direction: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted April 1, 2011 Share Posted April 1, 2011 The latest BoM forecast suggests an increasing down-the-road threat to the Pilbara-- showing a strengthening cyclone heading in that general direction: The forecast I put out this morning was similar to that. No real surprise, since the models are in better agreement today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted April 1, 2011 Author Share Posted April 1, 2011 The forecast I put out this morning was similar to that. No real surprise, since the models are in better agreement today. Cool. Still thinking a Cat 1-2 (USA) on the C Pilbara? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted April 1, 2011 Share Posted April 1, 2011 Cool. Still thinking a Cat 1-2 (USA) on the C Pilbara? Yup. The closer it stays to land, the weaker it will be, obviously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted April 2, 2011 Share Posted April 2, 2011 JTWC has TC Twenty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted April 2, 2011 Author Share Posted April 2, 2011 Wow-- and they bring it ashore as a 90-kt system! Could be an interesting season finale. P.S. You're ahead of the game, Adam-- you called this exact scenario a day or two ago. Noice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted April 2, 2011 Author Share Posted April 2, 2011 The BoM hasn't named declared the system a cyclone yet-- which makes sense, since their threshold (35 kt (10-min)) is higher than ours (35 kt (1-min)). But they have it right on the verge-- at 30 kt. I imagine they'll upgrade with the next package, given that the system looks to be tightening. The visible imagery sure looks like a cyclone brewing, with nice outflow to the N and W. This one will be named "Errol". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted April 2, 2011 Share Posted April 2, 2011 This is a tricky forecast. Once again, the models are having trouble with the strength and movement of subtropical highs across the Southern Tier. The Euro is quicker and stronger with the next high pressure, which never allows a col to develop and TC 20 moves westward into the open Indian Ocean. The GFS/CMC are slower and weaker with the high and allows TC 20 to slip southward towards the Pilbara next week. I kept with the re-curve approach because it's been more consistently modeled that way over the last 48 hours, but I'm not confident. No matter which track it takes, it looks like it will be sheared once it passes 17S. I took it up to Cat 1 strength, on Tuesday, but weakened it before landfall on the Pilbara. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted April 2, 2011 Author Share Posted April 2, 2011 This is a tricky forecast. Once again, the models are having trouble with the strength and movement of subtropical highs across the Southern Tier. The Euro is quicker and stronger with the next high pressure, which never allows a col to develop and TC 20 moves westward into the open Indian Ocean. The GFS/CMC are slower and weaker with the high and allows TC 20 to slip southward towards the Pilbara next week. I kept with the re-curve approach because it's been more consistently modeled that way over the last 48 hours, but I'm not confident. No matter which track it takes, it looks like it will be sheared once it passes 17S. I took it up to Cat 1 strength, on Tuesday, but weakened it before landfall on the Pilbara. It looks like the BoM is going with the Euro, as their forecast this morning has trended much stronger (up to 80 kt (10-min)) and also more W. They keep it N of 17S, which I guess is N of the shear zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted April 2, 2011 Author Share Posted April 2, 2011 The JTWC has shifted much further W, and they have it weakening as it drives toward the coast-- like Adam is forecasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted April 2, 2011 Share Posted April 2, 2011 12z GFS/CMC held serve. Euro trended left, but not to a landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted April 2, 2011 Author Share Posted April 2, 2011 12z GFS/CMC held serve. Euro trended left, but not to a landfall. OK, so what's your latest call-- Cat 1 (USA) between Exmouth and Port Hedland? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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