am19psu Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 Wow-- the outlook must be super-lame if Adam didn't even make his morning courtesy post. Not that it's lame, just nothing has changed. All of the non-ECMWF guidance keeps the monsoon low over land and nothing else is even on the radar. /sadface Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted March 9, 2011 Author Share Posted March 9, 2011 Not that it's lame, just nothing has changed. All of the non-ECMWF guidance keeps the monsoon low over land and nothing else is even on the radar. /sadface Sounds Cat-5 lame. And my business partner had brought my Kestrel from the USA-- just in case I'd be a-chasin'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 Sounds Cat-5 lame. And my business partner had brought my Kestrel back from the USA-- just in case I'd be a-chasin'.. MJO fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AussieStormGirl Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 Hi, Mardi-- how are you? I don't have an answer to your question, but just wanted to say hey. I hope you're well. Hey Josh How are you going? I going great - loving this wet weather although I can't believe it is flooding in the small towns around Cardwell. I can't even remember places like this flooding and the water was waist deep yesterday - pretty weird. (the cyclone doesn't count)... Keep an eye out for the supermoon on the 19th it will be the closest the moon has been to earth in almost a decade and the one in February was absolutely beautiful. Although living in the country does give an advantage as we don't have to worry about the city lights (or any lights for that matter lol). Anyway not as exciting as a cyclone but pretty amazing just the same! Take care Cheers Mardi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 Oh dear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted March 14, 2011 Share Posted March 14, 2011 Not much to look at this week. MJO should swing around to P4 by the 21st-23rd (meaning the western part of the region should start to be favorable again next week) and to P5 by the 25th-27th (which is favorable for the whole region). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted March 14, 2011 Share Posted March 14, 2011 South Atlantic FTW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted March 14, 2011 Share Posted March 14, 2011 South Atlantic FTW? http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/15130-invest-in-s-atlantic-off-brazil/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted March 16, 2011 Share Posted March 16, 2011 So everything is still pretty boring. There isn't anything in the models either. Things should improve next week, though, as the MJO swings around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alby_14 Posted March 18, 2011 Share Posted March 18, 2011 Its a long shot... But at least 1 model is hinting at some long term action. The MJO is becoming favourable, and coupled with a weak MT in the Arafura, and a forecast ridge building north through the continent it might just happen? Im sick of all these wasted lows wandering through the interior! Desperate! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted March 19, 2011 Author Share Posted March 19, 2011 Its a long shot... But at least 1 model is hinting at some long term action. The MJO is becoming favourable, and coupled with a weak MT in the Arafura, and a forecast ridge building north through the continent it might just happen? Im sick of all these wasted lows wandering through the interior! Desperate! Oh, hey, Stephen! How's it going? I've been working my tail off and traveling a bit-- I'm now in New York-- so I lost track of the Oz activity for a few days. But it doesn't look like I missed anything. I was looking at the low, too-- but it doesn't look like the BoM is too enthused with it. I wonder if we're running out of time! (But if that's the case, at least it means our season is starting soon... ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoastLow Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 I personally feel the Aus season is done. Monsoon trough wins again this year. I hope you guys in the US/ central America have some more "luck" this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alby_14 Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 Oh, hey, Stephen! How's it going? I've working my tail off and traveling a bit-- I'm now in New York-- so I lost track of the Oz activity for a few days. But it doesn't look like I missed anything. I was looking at the low, too-- but it doesn't look like the BoM is too enthused with it. I wonder if we're running out of time! (But if that's the case, at least it means our season is starting soon... ) Yeh I cant wait for some solid Atlantic action! Apart from Yasi our season hasnt been overly exciting. Solid ridge looks set to dominate Australia, boring... How long are you in NY for? Are you heading back to Prague? I resent the book and calendar via registered post so this time it 'should' find you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted March 20, 2011 Author Share Posted March 20, 2011 Yeh I cant wait for some solid Atlantic action! Apart from Yasi our season hasnt been overly exciting. Solid ridge looks set to dominate Australia, boring... How long are you in NY for? Are you heading back to Prague? I resent the book and calendar via registered post so this time it 'should' find you Oh, how exciting! I love looking forward to packages. I will be back in Prague in a couple of weeks, and of course my colleagues will be there to receive your shipment. It was very nice of you to send-- I am particularly excited about the Tracy book. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 I don't think the season is over yet. There is a moderate MJO wave getting ready to move toward the Australia Region, but won't become strongly favorable for another 5-10 days or so. You can already see the monsoon trough becoming more active in the guidance by the weekend. This is probably the last good shot at a TC for the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Wunderground now has a great radar page for Australia: http://www.wunderground.com/radar/map.asp?region=au Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 Looks like there is a decent chance for a TC north of Darwin next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 Euro shows Bune becoming one heck on a cyclone as it goes ET. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted March 27, 2011 Author Share Posted March 27, 2011 Looks like there is a decent chance for a TC north of Darwin next week. Yep-- the BoM has picked up on it. Today's Outlook our of Darwin sounds a bit interesting: A weak low, 1006 hPa, is located in the western Arafura Sea, well north of the Tiwi Islands. The low is expected to move slowly southwards over the Timor Sea or western Arafura Sea during the next few days. The low is likely to intensify further and may become a Tropical Cyclone near the northern or western Top End or north Kimberley coast during the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted March 27, 2011 Author Share Posted March 27, 2011 Today's Darwin Outlook is about the same as yesterday's, but the estimated pressure of that low in the Arafura Sea is down a couple of millibars, to 1004 mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Lots going on today. The longer the monsoon low in the Arafura Sea stays stationary, the better shot it will have to develop into a cyclone. The GFS is the slowest and strongest of the guidance, while the Euro is the fastest. The Euro actually turns the low into an enhanced monsoon trough across the Kimberley and the Top End. I'm leaning toward a slower solution right now, just because steering flow is weak and I don't see anything to kick it southward faster. (note: posting this here because we don't have an IO or WPAC thread yet) 93B in the eastern Bay of Bengal could develop into a tropical cyclone later this week. The monsoon trough in the WPAC is extending really far westward into the BoB. Since this is a monsoon low, it will take its sweet time to develop. Most guidance shows it becoming the first IO TC of the season though. It will probably get sheared apart before having a major impact on Andhra Pradesh or Orissa. In the WPAC, as I mentioned, the monsoon trough is pretty active for this time of year. The MJO is Phase 5 is obviously helping things, but there is also a Kelvin wave helping to increase upper divergence as well. As this Kelvin wave progresses eastward through the week, it is likely to start cyclogenesis in the eastern end of the monsoon trough. I suspect that we'll have the first WPAC TC of the year by the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aslkahuna Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Lots going on today. The longer the monsoon low in the Arafura Sea stays stationary, the better shot it will have to develop into a cyclone. The GFS is the slowest and strongest of the guidance, while the Euro is the fastest. The Euro actually turns the low into an enhanced monsoon trough across the Kimberley and the Top End. I'm leaning toward a slower solution right now, just because steering flow is weak and I don't see anything to kick it southward faster. (note: posting this here because we don't have an IO or WPAC thread yet) 93B in the eastern Bay of Bengal could develop into a tropical cyclone later this week. The monsoon trough in the WPAC is extending really far westward into the BoB. Since this is a monsoon low, it will take its sweet time to develop. Most guidance shows it becoming the first IO TC of the season though. It will probably get sheared apart before having a major impact on Andhra Pradesh or Orissa. In the WPAC, as I mentioned, the monsoon trough is pretty active for this time of year. The MJO is Phase 5 is obviously helping things, but there is also a Kelvin wave helping to increase upper divergence as well. As this Kelvin wave progresses eastward through the week, it is likely to start cyclogenesis in the eastern end of the monsoon trough. I suspect that we'll have the first WPAC TC of the year by the weekend. Very rare to get a TC in the NIO in March (climo says 0). WPAC averages about 1 warned system every two years in March witha typhoon about once in every 5 years. April sees about 0.2 TCs in the NIO on an annual basis while in WPAC the average for warned systems is 0.8 and Typhoons 0.4. Steve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted March 29, 2011 Author Share Posted March 29, 2011 Lots going on today. The longer the monsoon low in the Arafura Sea stays stationary, the better shot it will have to develop into a cyclone. The GFS is the slowest and strongest of the guidance, while the Euro is the fastest. The Euro actually turns the low into an enhanced monsoon trough across the Kimberley and the Top End. I'm leaning toward a slower solution right now, just because steering flow is weak and I don't see anything to kick it southward faster. It looks like the BoM is in the GFS/Adam camp. The latest Outlook from Darwin indicates the low-- centered N of the Couburg Peninsula-- is currently slow-moving, but should soon drift SW into the Timor Sea, with a high likelihood of cyclone development by Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 It looks like the BoM is in the GFS/Adam camp. The latest Outlook from Darwin indicates the low-- centered N of the Couburg Peninsula-- is currently slow-moving, but should soon drift SW into the Timor Sea, with a high likelihood of cyclone development by Friday. Potential Cyclones:A tropical low, 1004 hPa, is located in the Arafura Sea, north of the Cobourg Peninsula. The low is expected to remain slow moving for the next day or so before moving southwest into the Timor Sea. The low is expected to gradually strengthen and may develop into a tropical cyclone Friday. Likelihood of a tropical cyclone being in the region on: Wednesday: Low. Thursday: Moderate. Friday: High. Nothin from JTWC yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Shear is still high, though the there is a better cyclonic signature in the convection this morning. Once shear dies down tomorrow, the thing will have a chance to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 JTWC figured out there was an area of interest north of Darwin. 24 hr genesis potential is poor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted March 29, 2011 Author Share Posted March 29, 2011 JTWC figured out there was an area of interest north of Darwin. 24 hr genesis potential is poor. Finally! I'd been checking. It's now Invest 91S, centered near 10.0S 133.1E. Cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Finally! I'd been checking. It's now Invest 91S, centered near 10.0S 133.1E. Cool. Yeah, they had numbered it last night, but it finally made it into the outlook tonight. At least there is something to look at, even if none of the action across the globe is going to amount to much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted March 30, 2011 Author Share Posted March 30, 2011 Yeah, they had numbered it last night, but it finally made it into the outlook tonight. At least there is something to look at, even if none of the action across the globe is going to amount to much. So you think it'll be a dud? P.S. Weird-- I didn't notice it last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 So you think it'll be a dud? P.S. Weird-- I didn't notice it last night. Yeah, probably S-S Cat 1 at best. It doesn't look to have a lot of potential. When I say last night, I mean it was numbered when I woke up at 5am EDT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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