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Aussie (& S-Hemisphere) Cyclone Action 2010-2011


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Hi, Mardi-- how are you? :) I don't have an answer to your question, but just wanted to say hey. I hope you're well.

Hey Josh

How are you going? I going great - loving this wet weather although I can't believe it is flooding in the small towns around Cardwell. I can't even remember places like this flooding and the water was waist deep yesterday - pretty weird. (the cyclone doesn't count)...

Keep an eye out for the supermoon on the 19th it will be the closest the moon has been to earth in almost a decade and the one in February was absolutely beautiful. Although living in the country does give an advantage as we don't have to worry about the city lights (or any lights for that matter lol).

Anyway not as exciting as a cyclone but pretty amazing just the same!

Take care

Cheers

Mardi

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Its a long shot... But at least 1 model is hinting at some long term action. The MJO is becoming favourable, and coupled with a weak MT in the Arafura, and a forecast ridge building north through the continent it might just happen? Im sick of all these wasted lows wandering through the interior! Desperate!

post-1680-0-61262700-1300459843.jpg

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Its a long shot... But at least 1 model is hinting at some long term action. The MJO is becoming favourable, and coupled with a weak MT in the Arafura, and a forecast ridge building north through the continent it might just happen? Im sick of all these wasted lows wandering through the interior! Desperate!

Oh, hey, Stephen! How's it going? :)

I've been working my tail off and traveling a bit-- I'm now in New York-- so I lost track of the Oz activity for a few days. But it doesn't look like I missed anything.

I was looking at the low, too-- but it doesn't look like the BoM is too enthused with it.

I wonder if we're running out of time! :( (But if that's the case, at least it means our season is starting soon... :sun:)

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Oh, hey, Stephen! How's it going? :)

I've working my tail off and traveling a bit-- I'm now in New York-- so I lost track of the Oz activity for a few days. But it doesn't look like I missed anything.

I was looking at the low, too-- but it doesn't look like the BoM is too enthused with it.

I wonder if we're running out of time! :( (But if that's the case, at least it means our season is starting soon... :sun:)

Yeh I cant wait for some solid Atlantic action! Apart from Yasi our season hasnt been overly exciting. Solid ridge looks set to dominate Australia, boring...

How long are you in NY for? Are you heading back to Prague? I resent the book and calendar via registered post so this time it 'should' find you :)

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Yeh I cant wait for some solid Atlantic action! Apart from Yasi our season hasnt been overly exciting. Solid ridge looks set to dominate Australia, boring...

How long are you in NY for? Are you heading back to Prague? I resent the book and calendar via registered post so this time it 'should' find you :)

Oh, how exciting! I love looking forward to packages. :wub:

I will be back in Prague in a couple of weeks, and of course my colleagues will be there to receive your shipment. It was very nice of you to send-- I am particularly excited about the Tracy book.

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I don't think the season is over yet. There is a moderate MJO wave getting ready to move toward the Australia Region, but won't become strongly favorable for another 5-10 days or so. You can already see the monsoon trough becoming more active in the guidance by the weekend. This is probably the last good shot at a TC for the season.

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Looks like there is a decent chance for a TC north of Darwin next week.

Yep-- the BoM has picked up on it. Today's Outlook our of Darwin sounds a bit interesting:

A weak low, 1006 hPa, is located in the western Arafura Sea, well north of the Tiwi Islands. The low is expected to move slowly southwards over the Timor Sea or western Arafura Sea during the next few days. The low is likely to intensify further and may become a Tropical Cyclone near the northern or western Top End or north Kimberley coast during the week.

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Lots going on today. The longer the monsoon low in the Arafura Sea stays stationary, the better shot it will have to develop into a cyclone. The GFS is the slowest and strongest of the guidance, while the Euro is the fastest. The Euro actually turns the low into an enhanced monsoon trough across the Kimberley and the Top End. I'm leaning toward a slower solution right now, just because steering flow is weak and I don't see anything to kick it southward faster.

(note: posting this here because we don't have an IO or WPAC thread yet)

93B in the eastern Bay of Bengal could develop into a tropical cyclone later this week. The monsoon trough in the WPAC is extending really far westward into the BoB. Since this is a monsoon low, it will take its sweet time to develop. Most guidance shows it becoming the first IO TC of the season though. It will probably get sheared apart before having a major impact on Andhra Pradesh or Orissa.

In the WPAC, as I mentioned, the monsoon trough is pretty active for this time of year. The MJO is Phase 5 is obviously helping things, but there is also a Kelvin wave helping to increase upper divergence as well. As this Kelvin wave progresses eastward through the week, it is likely to start cyclogenesis in the eastern end of the monsoon trough. I suspect that we'll have the first WPAC TC of the year by the weekend.

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Lots going on today. The longer the monsoon low in the Arafura Sea stays stationary, the better shot it will have to develop into a cyclone. The GFS is the slowest and strongest of the guidance, while the Euro is the fastest. The Euro actually turns the low into an enhanced monsoon trough across the Kimberley and the Top End. I'm leaning toward a slower solution right now, just because steering flow is weak and I don't see anything to kick it southward faster.

(note: posting this here because we don't have an IO or WPAC thread yet)

93B in the eastern Bay of Bengal could develop into a tropical cyclone later this week. The monsoon trough in the WPAC is extending really far westward into the BoB. Since this is a monsoon low, it will take its sweet time to develop. Most guidance shows it becoming the first IO TC of the season though. It will probably get sheared apart before having a major impact on Andhra Pradesh or Orissa.

In the WPAC, as I mentioned, the monsoon trough is pretty active for this time of year. The MJO is Phase 5 is obviously helping things, but there is also a Kelvin wave helping to increase upper divergence as well. As this Kelvin wave progresses eastward through the week, it is likely to start cyclogenesis in the eastern end of the monsoon trough. I suspect that we'll have the first WPAC TC of the year by the weekend.

Very rare to get a TC in the NIO in March (climo says 0). WPAC averages about 1 warned system every two years in March witha typhoon about once in every 5 years. April sees about 0.2 TCs in the NIO on an annual basis while in WPAC the average for warned systems is 0.8 and Typhoons 0.4.

Steve

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Lots going on today. The longer the monsoon low in the Arafura Sea stays stationary, the better shot it will have to develop into a cyclone. The GFS is the slowest and strongest of the guidance, while the Euro is the fastest. The Euro actually turns the low into an enhanced monsoon trough across the Kimberley and the Top End. I'm leaning toward a slower solution right now, just because steering flow is weak and I don't see anything to kick it southward faster.

It looks like the BoM is in the GFS/Adam camp. :)

The latest Outlook from Darwin indicates the low-- centered N of the Couburg Peninsula-- is currently slow-moving, but should soon drift SW into the Timor Sea, with a high likelihood of cyclone development by Friday.

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It looks like the BoM is in the GFS/Adam camp. :)

The latest Outlook from Darwin indicates the low-- centered N of the Couburg Peninsula-- is currently slow-moving, but should soon drift SW into the Timor Sea, with a high likelihood of cyclone development by Friday.

Potential Cyclones:

A tropical low, 1004 hPa, is located in the Arafura Sea, north of the Cobourg

Peninsula. The low is expected to remain slow moving for the next day or so

before moving southwest into the Timor Sea. The low is expected to gradually

strengthen and may develop into a tropical cyclone Friday.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone being in the region on:

Wednesday: Low.

Thursday: Moderate.

Friday: High.

Nothin from JTWC yet.

abpwsair.jpg

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Finally!

I'd been checking. It's now Invest 91S, centered near 10.0S 133.1E. Cool.

Yeah, they had numbered it last night, but it finally made it into the outlook tonight. At least there is something to look at, even if none of the action across the globe is going to amount to much.

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