HurricaneJosh Posted March 6, 2011 Author Share Posted March 6, 2011 The Euro isn't showing too much excitement-- just some low-grade rumblings in the Coral Sea and another schlocky coast-skimmer brushing the North West Cape (WA) in about ten days. Blah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AussieStormGirl Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 Coral Sea thingy will head south east... develop into a TC or not. But keep an eye on the Gulf, a low with potential is predicted there Thursday (not the one that crossed north of Cairns today). Big issue here now is rain with a SE surge barrelling up the coast and meeting the trough over Cairns... serious rainfall and storms afoot over the next few days.... 500mm not out of the question. Major flood and severe weather warnings abound. Going to really hammer those hit by Yasi. We are getting a bit of rain and some thunderstorms although to be honest it just seems like another wet season in the tropics......hopefully those thunderstorms you mentioned will become a little more frequent... Everyone you talk to here is convinced there is going to be another cyclone hit the Queensland coast in March although to be honest there doesn't seem to be any scientic reasoning behind this - just the old locals going on about weather patterns of years gone by.....will be interesting to see what happens.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kwt Posted March 7, 2011 Share Posted March 7, 2011 Nothing of any real interest on the models longer range, seems like after an explosive few weeks in Feb its gone back to the dead nothing going on situation we were in back during December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted March 7, 2011 Author Share Posted March 7, 2011 The BoM is tracking a Tropical Low in the far-E Coral Sea-- but it doesn't look to have much potential and, furthermore, it's moving the wrong way! It'll cross 160E and be on Fiji's turf soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted March 7, 2011 Author Share Posted March 7, 2011 In other news.... Darwin mentions the monsoon trough in the Gulf of Carpentaria, and suggests a low may form in the Gulf later in the week. One thing I'm not aware of off the top of my head: how often do severe tropical cyclones actually form within the Gulf? I know cyclones will often pass across it-- especially after hitting Cape York-- but I wonder how often the Gulf itself actually breeds something serious. To those primarily familiar with the Atlantic: the Gulf of Carpentaria is much smaller than the Gulf of Mexico-- I'd say roughly about as wide as the Bay of Campeche, though a bit taller-- so it's not like there's a ton of room. On the other hand, as we've seen again and again, some of the strongest cyclones in this basin have been quite small. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted March 7, 2011 Share Posted March 7, 2011 The BoM is tracking a Tropical Low in the far-E Coral Sea-- but it doesn't look to have much potential and, furthermore, it's moving the wrong way! It'll cross 160E and be on Fiji's turf soon. That's the subtropical I was discussing last week. I doubt it will get named, even if it gets gales. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted March 7, 2011 Author Share Posted March 7, 2011 That's the subtropical I was discussing last week. I doubt it will get named, even if it gets gales. Total losercane. Next! Any thoughts on the Gulf later this week? Or is it just pretty grim all around? Do I need to drown my sorrows in reanalysis work and wind-pressure-relationship reading? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted March 7, 2011 Share Posted March 7, 2011 Any thoughts on the Gulf later this week? Or is it just pretty grim all around? Do I need to drown my sorrows in reanalysis work and wind-pressure-relationship reading? Well, there will be something, but it looks like it will move over land before it gets too organized. A major rain event for sure, but I don't think there will be much wind. The MJO didn't make the slow jog into 7/8 like I thought it would (which would be good for the Coral Sea). Instead, it jumped straight to 8 and is motoring toward the Western Hemisphere and will be in the IO by next week. Looks like we're going to have to sit tight for another 10-14 days before it becomes favorable again (P4). The other place to watch besides the Gulf is a possible monsoon low over the weekend along the Kimberley or Pilbara, but there is nothing too exciting showing up yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alby_14 Posted March 7, 2011 Share Posted March 7, 2011 Total losercane. Next! Any thoughts on the Gulf later this week? Or is it just pretty grim all around? Do I need to drown my sorrows in reanalysis work and wind-pressure-relationship reading? Grim... Im heading to Borroloola tomorrow, which is located in the SW GoC, to do some flood study work and flow measurements on the McArthur River. For works sake im hoping we get a weak and wet low pass by, giving us some good floods. As im going to be in the GoC vicinity, expect nothing of interest to spin up out there lol. Yep ive jinxed anything of any minute interest good n proper! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted March 7, 2011 Author Share Posted March 7, 2011 Well, there will be something, but it looks like it will move over land before it gets too organized. A major rain event for sure, but I don't think there will be much wind. The MJO didn't make the slow jog into 7/8 like I thought it would (which would be good for the Coral Sea). Instead, it jumped straight to 8 and is motoring toward the Western Hemisphere and will be in the IO by next week. Looks like we're going to have to sit tight for another 10-14 days before it becomes favorable again (P4). The other place to watch besides the Gulf is a possible monsoon low over the weekend along the Kimberley or Pilbara, but there is nothing too exciting showing up yet. OK, thanks. Re: the bolded part... yikes. By then we'll be getting pretty-darn late in the season. I think of March as being sort of like their "15 Sep - 15 Oct"... meaning once we get into April, it's usually game over. Monica 2006 was one spectacular exception-- an epic late-April cyclone, sort of like their Wilma (i.e., an extremely intense, very-late-season system). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted March 7, 2011 Share Posted March 7, 2011 OK, thanks. Re: the bolded part... yikes. By then we'll be getting pretty-darn late in the season. I think of March as being sort of like their "15 Sep - 15 Oct"... meaning, once we get into April, it's usually game over. Monica 2006 was one spectacular exception-- an epic late-April cyclone, sort of like their Wilma (i.e., an extremely intense, very-late-season system). Fourteen days only puts us at Mar 21, which would be Oct 5 in your analogy, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted March 7, 2011 Author Share Posted March 7, 2011 Grim... Im heading to Borroloola tomorrow, which is located in the SW GoC, to do some flood study work and flow measurements on the McArthur River. For works sake im hoping we get a weak and wet low pass by, giving us some good floods. As im going to be in the GoC vicinity, expect nothing of interest to spin up out there lol. Yep ive jinxed anything of any minute interest good n proper! Well, please get rid of the jinx now, before we meet and chase something together. P.S. Have you been the Burketown and have you seen that odd cloud formation that people talk about-- the Morning Glory thing? P.P.S. I found Borroloola on Google Maps, for anyone who's interested: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted March 7, 2011 Author Share Posted March 7, 2011 Fourteen days only puts us at Mar 21, which would be Oct 5 in your analogy, right? Yes. I guess that's not too bad. P.S. And I should point out that my analogy is totally off-the-cuff-- I'm not sure how accurate it is. I should research that a little before spouting it as truth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted March 7, 2011 Share Posted March 7, 2011 Why wouldn't March 21 be September 21 in the analogy? I know the monsoon splits the near India TC season into two distinct parts, but nothing like that goes on around Australia, does it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted March 7, 2011 Share Posted March 7, 2011 Why wouldn't March 21 be September 21 in the analogy? I know the monsoon splits the near India TC season into two distinct parts, but nothing like that goes on around Australia, does it? I don't have any journal articles to back me up, but I'd bet it has something to do with the relatively smaller land mass in Australia versus Asia. Without continental airmasses to continue driving the land/ocean temperature gradient, the monsoon weakens more quickly across Australia than it does in the WPAC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alby_14 Posted March 7, 2011 Share Posted March 7, 2011 One thing I have noticed is that the Aussie season seems to peak and end earlier than the Atlantic season. March, our first month of Autumn, is usually the cut off for any sustained TC activity. Anything in April is a bonus and May, forget it. Our season seems to produce the goods from December to March, the guts of Summer. Yours seems to produce late Summer/early Autumn ie. August to October? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted March 7, 2011 Author Share Posted March 7, 2011 One thing I have noticed is that the Aussie season seems to peak and end earlier than the Atlantic season. March, our first month of Autumn, is usually the cut off for any sustained TC activity. Anything in April is a bonus and May, forget it. Our season seems to produce the goods from December to March, the guts of Summer. Yours seems to produce late Summer/early Autumn ie. August to October? Yeah, exactly. Those are our peak three months-- with the real heart of it being approx. 15 Aug - 15 Oct. And the exact climatological peak is 10 Sep. In a lot of the USA, hurricanes are actually thought of as an autumn phenomenon. It's weird how it's so different than you guys, where cyclones really are primarily a summer thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted March 7, 2011 Share Posted March 7, 2011 P.S. I wouldn't compare the Atlantic to Australia. Genesis comes from completely different mechanisms. The more significant comparison is to the WPAC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted March 7, 2011 Author Share Posted March 7, 2011 P.S. I wouldn't compare the Atlantic to Australia. Genesis comes from completely different mechanisms. The more significant comparison is to the WPAC. Interesting. Would you expand on that a little? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted March 7, 2011 Share Posted March 7, 2011 Interesting. Would you expand on that a little? Most of our hurricanes comes from easterly waves that start as MCSs over Africa or from old baroclinic lows over the Gulf or SW Atlantic. Nearly all of Australia's TCs come from either monsoon lows or monsoon breakdowns, just like the WPAC. The monsoon is driven by land/ocean temperature gradients. Since Australia is smaller than Asia (and there is no elevated heat source like the Himalayas), the land/ocean temperature gradient weakens more quickly after the equinox radiation max than in Asia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted March 7, 2011 Author Share Posted March 7, 2011 Most of our hurricanes comes from easterly waves that start as MCSs over Africa or from old baroclinic lows over the Gulf or SW Atlantic. Nearly all of Australia's TCs come from either monsoon lows or monsoon breakdowns, just like the WPAC. The monsoon is driven by land/ocean temperature gradients. Since Australia is smaller than Asia (and there is no elevated heat source like the Himalayas), the land/ocean temperature gradient weakens more quickly after the equinox radiation max than in Asia. I think I've only been realizing this year how completely different the formation mechanisms are from basin to basin. I assume the EPAC works primarily like the NATL, since a lot of EPAC activity comes from African waves that cross C America-- no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted March 7, 2011 Share Posted March 7, 2011 I assume the EPAC works primarily like the NATL, since a lot of EPAC activity comes from African waves that cross C America-- no? For the most part, though a monsoon-like trough can set up, especially when the Four Corners high is the dominant synoptic feature in the CONUS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted March 7, 2011 Author Share Posted March 7, 2011 Yeah, it really is game over in May-- more so than I even thought! I went through the records, and these are all the Severe Tropical Cyclone (STC) landfalls in Australia since 1980 (with landfall dates and locations): Aivu 1989 - 04 Apr - QLD Orson 1989 - 22 Apr - WA Chloe 1995 - 08 Apr - WA Gwenda 1999 - 07 Apr - WA Tessi 2000 - 02 Apr - QLD Monica 2006 - 19/24 Apr - QLD/NT So, in the time period, no STCs hit Australia in May, and there've been very few in April. But what's interesting is that a couple of these April landfalls (Orson, Monica) were extremely intense. 1989 was an odd year, with two STC landfalls in April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aslkahuna Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 For the most part, though a monsoon-like trough can set up, especially when the Four Corners high is the dominant synoptic feature in the CONUS. Yes, EPAC is a hybrid with the storms coming from waves that make it through the ATL without developing (one of the factors involved in the inverse relationship between the two) as well as monsoonal development during the North American Monsoon. Steve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 There will be a monsoon low over the weekend that starts over land in the Kimberley. If it can move over water, like the Euro is showing, it could be a decent storm. All of the other guidance keeps it over land though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted March 8, 2011 Author Share Posted March 8, 2011 There will be a monsoon low over the weekend that starts over land in the Kimberley. If it can move over water, like the Euro is showing, it could be a decent storm. All of the other guidance keeps it over land though. OK, cool. I decided not to hold my breath for anything, but just stay cool and see what happens. A watched pot ain't gonna boil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted March 9, 2011 Author Share Posted March 9, 2011 There will be a monsoon low over the weekend that starts over land in the Kimberley. If it can move over water, like the Euro is showing, it could be a decent storm. All of the other guidance keeps it over land though. Perth mentions this potential Kimberley low in Wednesday's outlook. Mildly interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AussieStormGirl Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 Hi Guys March 19th is an extreme super moon....some people say this will cause extreme weather around this time.....what are you thoughts on this? Do you give it any credit or think it's all hog wash? I know this may not be the right thread but I am just interested in your thoughts. Cheers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted March 9, 2011 Author Share Posted March 9, 2011 Hi Guys March 19th is an extreme super moon....some people say this will cause extreme weather around this time.....what are you thoughts on this? Do you give it any credit or think it's all hog wash? I know this may not be the right thread but I am just interested in your thoughts. Cheers Hi, Mardi-- how are you? I don't have an answer to your question, but just wanted to say hey. I hope you're well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted March 9, 2011 Author Share Posted March 9, 2011 Wow-- the outlook must be super-lame if Adam didn't even make his morning courtesy post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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