am19psu Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 So, does the roundy product mean that the best chances are about mid month... and if I am correct (while the MJO will move further east) sea temps and other variables (including the nina already peaking) this is probably the last big cyclogenisis window fro the season? I don't necessarily think that the statistical forecast has a good handle on the evolution of the MJO. I tend to rely on the Euro ensemble for that. As far as I know, it's the only thing that's shown skill in forecasting the MJO two weeks out. The Roundy stuff is good for forecasting the lower amplitude waves, like Kelvin waves and Equatorial Rossby waves. Personally, I've been forecasting the 2nd half of March to be more active than the first half with the expectation that the MJO will come back around to Phase 7 or 8 around mid-month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 Omg, I forgot how you cheered on that wretched creation. Sicko. you know you loved it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 you know you loved it I was more interested in it about 5 days before that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 I was more interested in it about 5 days before that. Me too. Once it became an obvious OHC killer and didn't help us in the epic battle against 14/6/3 I started wishing for it to go away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted March 1, 2011 Author Share Posted March 1, 2011 you know you loved it Ugh. Beyond disgusting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted March 2, 2011 Author Share Posted March 2, 2011 Dead as a doornail. Neither the BoM nor Fiji outlooks show any potential development over the next three days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Dead as a doornail. Neither the BoM nor Fiji outlooks show any potential development over the next three days. Hard to find anything until the 8th or 9th at the earliest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted March 2, 2011 Author Share Posted March 2, 2011 Hard to find anything until the 8th or 9th at the earliest. OK, I guess we just have to sit tight. It is what it is. (Grrrrr.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
U_Thant Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Even though they don't name them in the Aussie Region, subtropicals are pretty common in this basin. Since I started forecasting here in 2008-09, they've had at least one I can remember off the top of my head in each autumn. And, yes, I realize I am the only one who likes subtropicals. Just like I was the only one who liked the monsoon low in the Caribbean last fall (Nicole). Hey, I resent that remark!. Remember, yours truly liked it so much that I affectionately christened it "Slopgyre" in it's formative stages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted March 3, 2011 Author Share Posted March 3, 2011 The BoM outlook today mentions a weak low in the NE corner of the Coral Sea. They say it will move slowly SW and may develop into a cyclone over the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 The BoM outlook today mentions a weak low in the NE corner of the Coral Sea. They say it will move slowly SW and may develop into a cyclone over the weekend. I'm not buying that, but midweek next week should get interesting. The GFS and CMC are still both showing the subtropical development I mentioned on Tuesday. The Euro shows a system closer to Australia and heading west towards Townsville. Not buying any one solution at this time, but I expect we'll have a storm next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Hey, I resent that remark!. Remember, yours truly liked it so much that I affectionately christened it "Slopgyre" in it's formative stages. U_Thant season is coming. I thought with the ENSO and everything this would be an epic season, and except for Yasi, so far, I'm not impress. But I won't give up hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted March 3, 2011 Author Share Posted March 3, 2011 I'm not buying that, but midweek next week should get interesting. The GFS and CMC are still both showing the subtropical development I mentioned on Tuesday. The Euro shows a system closer to Australia and heading west towards Townsville. Not buying any one solution at this time, but I expect we'll have a storm next week. Thanks. I assume the Euro feature is more tropical in nature? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Thanks. I assume the Euro feature is more tropical in nature? Yeah. Doesn't deepen much before landfall, but still a lot of time for it to become better defined. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted March 4, 2011 Author Share Posted March 4, 2011 Today's BoM update mentions a low near Papua New Guinea. They expect it to move slowly SW over the weekend, with a moderate chance of cyclone development by early next week. The 00Z Euro isn't too enthused about the system and isn't showing much of anything. Elsewhere, it's dead as a doornail. No cyclones or even promising Invests anywhere in the world right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted March 4, 2011 Author Share Posted March 4, 2011 Adam, since you didn't comment this morning, I'll assume it's because your personal outlook for the next few days is bleak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Actually, it's because I didn't get to my weather stuff until right now. I had some other fires to put out when I came in this morning The GFS is actually super bullish on the Townsville cyclone for next week, but the Euro lost it. They both have the subtropical junk that you don't care about. I'm going to be keeping an eye on the Townsville thing for now. There's nothing obvious to initiate cyclogenesis there, but it could be something low amplitude the models are picking up on. It's a lot harder to diagnose these things down there, since all of the ensemble tools aren't created for the SPAC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted March 4, 2011 Author Share Posted March 4, 2011 Actually, it's because I didn't get to my weather stuff until right now. I had some other fires to put out when I came in this morning Wait-- you mean this thread isn't your top priority in the morning?? C'mon. The GFS is actually super bullish on the Townsville cyclone for next week, but the Euro lost it. They both have the subtropical junk that you don't care about. I'm going to be keeping an eye on the Townsville thing for now. There's nothing obvious to initiate cyclogenesis there, but it could be something low amplitude the models are picking up on. It's a lot harder to diagnose these things down there, since all of the ensemble tools aren't created for the SPAC. Wow-- sounds cool Re: the GFS. (I hadn't checked.) Maybe the feature will reappear on the Euro later. (I know, I know-- things can't always be as consistently depicted as Yasi was. <sigh>) To be clear: the Townsville cyclone would be a separate feature from that subtropical crap-- correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 To be clear: the Townsville cyclone would be a separate feature from that subtropical crap-- correct? Wednesday 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted March 4, 2011 Author Share Posted March 4, 2011 Wednesday 0z Noice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 THat inspired me to look at the PSU e-Wall tropical for the first time this month. Canadian and GFS both seem to suggest slow motion. Prolonged coastal wind and rain event, maybe. I would have posted the 144 GFS myself for 'hawtness'... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alby_14 Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 For what its worth, here are some of the different models, and a link to a previous EC run. I personally dont see much potential but I hope im wrong. The models obviously see something they like... http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/animate/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!96!Australia!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2011030212!!!step/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted March 4, 2011 Author Share Posted March 4, 2011 Why are Americans (okay USA Americans, let's not forget an entire southern continent and its neck, nor Canada) so sensitive to criticism (debate is probably a better word)? And yes Josh, you have inspired the question. My dear friend, This thread is about S-Hemisphere cyclones. We're going to need to keep it focused on that topic. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 My dear friend, This thread is about S-Hemisphere cyclones. We're going to need to keep it focused on that topic. Thanks. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?/topic/14711-is-josh-too-patriotic-and-sensitive/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Why are Americans (okay USA Americans, let's not forget an entire southern continent and its neck, nor Canada) so sensitive to criticism (debate is probably a better word)? And yes Josh, you have inspired the question. Mate, I believe the problem stems from the attitude you expressed earlier in this thread. How would you feel if we “Americans” came into your “Australian” forum and trashed your reasoning as newer members/quests? I suspect it would not be well received, either. Take some time to learn the nuances of the members and what they know and how they express their thoughts. We are a friendly bunch and have many very knowledgeable folks in our tropical community. We certainly are not afraid of criticism, when it is well founded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted March 4, 2011 Author Share Posted March 4, 2011 http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?/topic/14711-is-josh-too-patriotic-and-sensitive/ Thanks, Ed. I appreciate it. Y'all can continue that conversation there, and we can keep this one on topic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted March 5, 2011 Author Share Posted March 5, 2011 The Navy/NRL is indicating Invest 95P in the Coral Sea, NNE of Cooktown. The lame intensity (1010 mb/15 kt) and proximity to the coast suggest a dud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alby_14 Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Not even worth keeping a close eye on... Next! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Not even worth keeping a close eye on... Next! Agreed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted March 6, 2011 Author Share Posted March 6, 2011 Not even worth keeping a close eye on... Next! Well, you were right! As per the BoM, it moves ashore near Daintree without much fanfare. Next, indeed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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