HurricaneJosh Posted February 27, 2011 Author Share Posted February 27, 2011 Well... Maybe not. Spectacular lameness: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 27, 2011 Author Share Posted February 27, 2011 I'm so not tracking this one-- even if it does get a name. It's Carlos (a.k.a. Aussie Fay) all over again, and I feel like I got burned by that one. Not gonna waste the time again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 27, 2011 Author Share Posted February 27, 2011 lol Pipe down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 28, 2011 Author Share Posted February 28, 2011 A rather dull picture as we enter March: * The Kimberley low (91S) is now expected to remain over land-- and therefore it won't develop. * Another weak low (92P) at the S end of the Gulf of Carpentaria, near the NT/QLD border, should move inland soon. There are no other prospects except for a lone Invest (93S) way out in the S Indian Ocean, on the border between the BoM and Meteo France/La Reunion turfs. Blah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 A rather dull picture as we enter March: * The Kimberley low (91S) is now expected to remain over land-- and therefore it won't develop. * Another weak low (92P) at the S end of the Gulf of Carpentaria, near the NT/QLD border, should move inland soon. There are no other prospects except for a lone Invest (93S) way out in the S Indian Ocean, on the border between the BoM and Meteo France/La Reunion turfs. Blah. Dated already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 28, 2011 Author Share Posted February 28, 2011 Dated already. Huh? Explain, pls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Huh? Explain, pls. Oh, I was just joking because NRL already dropped 91S and 92P. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 28, 2011 Author Share Posted February 28, 2011 Oh, I was just joking because NRL already dropped 91S and 92P. Oh. Anything on the horizon? Even a cheap model hint? Please give me a reason to go on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Oh. Anything on the horizon? Even a cheap model hint? Please give me a reason to go on. Hide the sharp objects. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 28, 2011 Author Share Posted February 28, 2011 Hide the sharp objects. That bad? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 That bad? I don't see anything for the next ten days. The monsoon trough will be around, so it's possible (likely?) that the models will miss something embedded in the monsoon. Overall, the pattern is not a favorable one until closer to mid-month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 28, 2011 Author Share Posted February 28, 2011 I don't see anything for the next ten days. The monsoon trough will be around, so it's possible (likely?) that the models will miss something embedded in the monsoon. Overall, the pattern is not a favorable one until closer to mid-month. Hmmm. Thanks... I think. I guess I'm still depressed about missing Yasi. That setup was just too perfect. Ugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Looked a little happier Coral Sea and Carpinteria last week when I hotlinked, but I remain glass half full. 6-10 days doesn't look tragic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
28storms Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 Definitely looks like attention will shift to the Coral Sea region in 4-7 days. Too far out to get into specifics, but the model consensus is starting to key in on lowering surface pressures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted March 1, 2011 Author Share Posted March 1, 2011 Definitely looks like attention will shift to the Coral Sea region in 4-7 days. Too far out to get into specifics, but the model consensus is starting to key in on lowering surface pressures. Oh, that's interesting to hear. Although the E coast of QLD gets hit less frequently than the Pilbara, I think it provides better chase setups-- a la Yasi. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted March 1, 2011 Author Share Posted March 1, 2011 BOM has also picked the low on its four day... unusual for it to enter the fray so early. Well, hello. How are you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted March 1, 2011 Author Share Posted March 1, 2011 Sorry, make the EC cross Thursday http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!216!Australia!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2011030100!!/ Yummy. Looks like a small but vigorous little cyclone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted March 1, 2011 Author Share Posted March 1, 2011 Too early to say but if it does cross, and follows EC's more recent early tracks it will head north. Cat 2-3? That HP ridge should push it up You mean it would come ashore further N than what the Euro is showing here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted March 1, 2011 Author Share Posted March 1, 2011 Adam, what do you think of the sexy Euro hint? It kind of has a Baby Yasi vibe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 Adam, what do you think of the sexy Euro hint? It kind of has a Baby Yasi vibe. Right now, I'm more interested in the cyclone that forms out near New Caledonia early next week. That one is in both the GFS and the Euro. The Cape York cyclone is a relatively new feature and in the Euro only. Could it happen? Sure. The monsoon trough will be there. I'd like to see another model run or two before I bite off on it though. It's not like there is anything obvious that will set off cyclogenesis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted March 1, 2011 Author Share Posted March 1, 2011 Right now, I'm more interested in the cyclone that forms out near New Caledonia early next week. That one is in both the GFS and the Euro. The Cape York cyclone is a relatively new feature and in the Euro only. Could it happen? Sure. The monsoon trough will be there. I'd like to see another model run or two before I bite off on it though. It's not like there is anything obvious that will set off cyclogenesis. Interesting. What do you anticipate for the New Caledonia feature-- what kind of track? Perhaps a W-moving long tracker...? Or is something that far S at that longitude already a sure fish? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 Interesting. What do you anticipate for the New Caledonia feature-- what kind of track? Perhaps a W-moving long tracker...? Or is something that far S at that longitude already a sure fish? Honestly, it looks subtropical in origin and you won't like it at all An upper low cuts off overtop of it during genesis and the wind field is asymmetric. If the high pressure sliding south of Australia moves more slowly, it could impact the North Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted March 1, 2011 Author Share Posted March 1, 2011 Never claimed to be an expert but just about every model I've ever seen shows a lower hit than the reality... EC at one stage... way out... hitting 1000km south of Cairns... a day before the BOM had tracking north. Re the ridge comment, if it's there it should hold that system north... but as said, I am not an expert. Will look at the NC system in more detail. OK, gotcha. As in the Atlantic, it seems like strong ridging in the central basin is a key ingredient for interesting setups. P.S. Most of us here aren't expert forecasters-- am19psu is the only professional among our regular discussion group-- so don't feel shy about thinking aloud. Honestly, it looks subtropical in origin and you won't like it at all An upper low cuts off overtop of it during genesis and the wind field is asymmetric. If the high pressure sliding south of Australia moves more slowly, it could impact the North Island. Ugh. Kill it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 Ugh. Kill it. Even though they don't name them in the Aussie Region, subtropicals are pretty common in this basin. Since I started forecasting here in 2008-09, they've had at least one I can remember off the top of my head in each autumn. And, yes, I realize I am the only one who likes subtropicals. Just like I was the only one who liked the monsoon low in the Caribbean last fall (Nicole). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted March 1, 2011 Author Share Posted March 1, 2011 Even though they don't name them in the Aussie Region, subtropicals are pretty common in this basin. Since I started forecasting here in 2008-09, they've had at least one I can remember off the top of my head in each autumn. And, yes, I realize I am the only one who likes subtropicals. Just like I was the only one who liked the monsoon low in the Caribbean last fall (Nicole). Omg, I forgot how you cheered on that wretched creation. Sicko. Subtropicals and monsoon lows are your dark side-- like drinkin' and gamblin' for a non-wx-nerd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 Subtropicals and monsoon lows are your dark side-- like drinkin' and gamblin' for a non-wx-nerd. I actually dislike monsoon lows in the West Pac, IO and Australia. They're boring and worthless, usually. I just thought it was cool because we're not supposed to get monsoon lows over here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 Well we certainly get them here.... so thoughts on the Nogaps and GFS models for the Coral Sea (after you've stopped crying into your daiquiris). Also thoughts on the 477mm rain in the gulf, now that will get you feeling low (we had 300mm the other day here in Cairns). I don't use the NOGAPS to forecast. It's not a good model. The 0z GFS shows an inverted ridge along the East Coast of Australia to Cairns through 240 and the 6z GFS pops a closed low in the monsoon trough at 240. Like I said before, it's not something I'm going to get excited about yet. The Roundy product does show a Kelvin wave moving through that area after the 10th, so maybe the models are picking up on genesis a bit too quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted March 1, 2011 Author Share Posted March 1, 2011 Well we certainly get them here.... so thoughts on the Nogaps and GFS models for the Coral Sea (after you've stopped crying into your daiquiris). Also thoughts on the 477mm rain in the gulf, now that will get you feeling low (we had 300mm the other day here in Cairns). That's more than a foot to the metrically challenged btw. Me, personally: I have a bit of a fetish for wind events-- like, really tightly wound cyclones-- so I tend not to follow rainfall totals too closely. That having been said-- wow, that is a lot of rain! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 Pardon my ignorance... the roundy product? Nah, it's not ignorance. It's a pretty esoteric product, but I've had some success using it to forecast genesis. Here is the link: http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/roundy/waves/hovs/17.5S_7.5S/2011.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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