HurricaneJosh Posted February 21, 2011 Author Share Posted February 21, 2011 The cyclone is passing out of range of Port Hedland now, so the structural details are no longer so apparent-- and, very disappointingly, the Dampier radar is down-- so we might not get another really good look at the cyclone until it nears Learmonth (near Exmouth). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 21, 2011 Author Share Posted February 21, 2011 Latest obs from Legendre Island, which sticks out into the Indian Ocean and is just S of the cyclone's track, on the stronger side: http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDW60801/IDW60801.94307.shtml Currently 34 kt gusting to 45; pressure 990.7 mb and falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 21, 2011 Author Share Posted February 21, 2011 Latest obs from Legendre Island, which sticks out into the Indian Ocean and is just S of the cyclone's track, on the stronger side: http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDW60801/IDW60801.94307.shtml Currently 34 kt gusting to 45, out of the SSW; pressure 990.7 mb and falling. Now 40 kt gusting to 49-- still out of the SSW; pressure 988.4 mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 echo....echo.........echo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 21, 2011 Author Share Posted February 21, 2011 echo....echo.........echo No one has to read it-- it's just a log book for me. I like to record the details of landfalls. Go enjoy your S-Pacific cinnabun thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Looking a lot better on WV.. visible should be telling later today! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 22, 2011 Author Share Posted February 22, 2011 Looking a lot better on WV.. visible should be telling later today! I'm wondering! There's a lot of convection, but I believe the center is very close to the SE edge of it, if I'm not mistaken. Port Hedland radar was giving us some good insights into the structure earlier, but the cyclone has now passed out of range and, unfortunately, Dampier is out of commission. Grrrr. P.S. How've you been? Please stop in here more often! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 22, 2011 Author Share Posted February 22, 2011 Winds on Legendre Island have been pretty-much pegged at ~40 kt (10-min) gusting to 50 for the last couple of hours-- however, they could still increase: the direction remains SSW and the pressure's still dropping, so the center hasn't reach its point of closest approach yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Meanwhile a big quake has just struck near Diamond Habour, New Zealand...back to the Cyclones... Magnitude 6.3, Tuesday, February 22 2011 at 12:51 pm (NZDT), 10 km south-east of Christchurch. Quake Details Information about this earthquake: Reference Number3468575 [View event in Google Maps]Universal TimeFebruary 21 2011 at 23:51NZ Daylight TimeTuesday, February 22 2011 at 12:51 pmLatitude, Longitude43.60°S, 172.71°EFocal Depth5 kmRichter magnitude6.3RegionCanterburyLocation Within 5 km of Lyttelton Within 5 km of Diamond Harbour 10 km south-east of Christchurch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 I'm wondering! There's a lot of convection, but I believe the center is very close to the SE edge of it, if I'm not mistaken. Yeah, it's still getting sheared strongly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 22, 2011 Author Share Posted February 22, 2011 Yeah, it's still getting sheared strongly. Ugh. That is a depressing MW presentation. Just ugh. 'Cane cancel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 P.S. How've you been? Please stop in here more often! Super busy with senior comps coming up soon and a paper I'm working on that I'm presenting at NCUR in a month. Also, grad school applications. I'll likely just be a lurker for the most part until the Atlantic Season starts to heat up! Keep the posting going though, I like to read about whats going on in Australia and the rest of the southern Hemisphere! Latest microwave looks like it might be trying to edge a bit closer to shore. Edit: Looks like a more recently updated one was posted by Adam... seems like its not the best quality image though, but defiantly no real eye structure forming yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Ugh. That is a depressing MW presentation. Just ugh. 'Cane cancel. You need to look at it glass half full. That's as impressive of a MW image as I've seen for a TC in its formative stages in the face of 25 kts of shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 22, 2011 Author Share Posted February 22, 2011 Super busy with senior comps coming up soon and a paper I'm working on that I'm presenting at NCUR in a month. Also, grad school applications. I'll likely just be a lurker for the most part until the Atlantic Season starts to heat up! Keep the posting going though, I like to read about whats going on in Australia and the rest of the southern Hemisphere! Latest microwave looks like it might be trying to edge a bit closer to shore. Edit: Looks like a more recently updated one was posted by Adam... seems like its not the best quality image though, but defiantly no real eye structure forming yet. Wow-- sounds like you're super-busy. OK, you get a free pass... this time. But don't be a stranger. You need to look at it glass half full. That's as impressive of a MW image as I've seen for a TC in its formative stages in the face of 25 kts of shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 That's as impressive of a MW image as I've seen for a TC in its formative stages in the face of 25 kts of shear. I like qualifiers, apparently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 22, 2011 Author Share Posted February 22, 2011 Carlos made landfall very near Karratha several hours ago. Overall, the surface obs were sort of blah. Legendre Island reported a decent 49 kt (10-min) gusting to 61-- but a good 6 hrs after the lowest pressure (and attendant wind shift), suggesting a broad, loose circulation. The best out of Karratha is 34 kt gusting 44-- measured just recently, at 5:34 pm. Kind of lame, given that town's close proximity to the center. (Lowest pressure there: 982.8 mb at 12:30 pm, which-- interestingly-- seemed to correspond with a slackening of the wind.) The center is near Mardie now, which previously had 34 kt gusting to 40 on the front side. The pressure is bottoming out now (at ~984 mb) and the winds are very light, so they must be near the center-- and I imagine they'll have some stronger winds after it passes. The JTWC had the intensity at 55 kt (1-min) prior to landfall. Overall, just kind of blah. The cyclone has been downgraded to Cat-1 AUS and continues its WSW trek over the Pilbara: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Hard to tell for sure, but LR radar and a recent MW pass both indicate Carlos is back over water. http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDR292.loop.shtml#skip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 22, 2011 Author Share Posted February 22, 2011 Hard to tell for sure, but LR radar and a recent MW pass both indicate Carlos is back over water. http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDR292.loop.shtml#skip Yeah, totally! It's wobbled more W-- and it looks like the center is way clear of the coast. Just when I was ready to count it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 22, 2011 Author Share Posted February 22, 2011 Although Carlos is not exactly a textbook cyclone, the surface obs in Mardie are a classic representation of a cyclone's passage over a location: the center clearly passed through between 4 and 5 pm, attended by lowest pressure, a calming of the winds, and a shift in direction. A consistent idiosyncrasy of this cyclone has been stronger winds on the backside, after the center passes. I've been in a few 'canes like that-- where the winds were much stronger after the eye-- for example, Wilma 2005 (in FL) and Alex 2010 (in MX). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Yeah, totally! It's wobbled more W-- and it looks like the center is way clear of the coast. Just when I was ready to count it out. Keep in mind, the eyewall is probably tilted to the west and that radar beam is looking pretty high up in the atmosphere. It's pretty uncertain whether it is over water or not right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 22, 2011 Author Share Posted February 22, 2011 Keep in mind, the eyewall is probably tilted to the west and that radar beam is looking pretty high up in the atmosphere. It's pretty uncertain whether it is over water or not right now. Oops, yeah-- I sometimes I forget that not every system is perfectly stacked vertically-- although Carlos has been for much of its life (but maybe not now). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Oops, yeah-- I sometimes I forget that not every system is perfectly stacked vertically-- although Carlos has been for much of its life (but maybe not now). Why do you say that? I'd expect it to have been tilted since the weekend when it started moving SW into the higher shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 22, 2011 Author Share Posted February 22, 2011 Why do you say that? I'd expect it to have been tilted since the weekend when it started moving SW into the higher shear. Either the BoM or the JTWC discussions (I can't remember) referred to the nice vertical stacking more than once-- it seemed to be a characteristic of this system-- although I think this was more when it was over the Top End and hovering around Darwin and then the Kimberley. But, yeah, since it's been over the Indian Ocean, it's been pretty much sheared the whole time. But, anyhoo, you were correct with your earlier, radar-based suspicion: the latest advice has the cyclone back over water and back up to Cat 2! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 22, 2011 Author Share Posted February 22, 2011 Learmonth radar shows a well-defined center and core. It actually looks like a real cyclone, despite attenuation, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 22, 2011 Author Share Posted February 22, 2011 It almost looks like a smaller, tighter eyewall is trying to form. But I'm not sure I've seen that ever. Like, usually, the larger eyewall simply contracts-- a smaller one doesn't coil up inside the larger one. Perhaps I'm over-analyzing some stray cells. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 22, 2011 Author Share Posted February 22, 2011 Nothing too exciting from Onslow so far, which is getting near the center. Peak gust up to now is 44 kt, with pressure down to 986 mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 22, 2011 Author Share Posted February 22, 2011 As of 13Z, the BoM put the intensity at 980 mb/55 kt (10-min)-- almost a 'cane on our scale. But those winds are N and E of the center-- not what's occurring on the Pilbara coast. To illustrate this point, Mardie has just had its highest winds yet-- 36 kt gusting to 59-- even though the center crossed this location 6 hrs ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 22, 2011 Author Share Posted February 22, 2011 The center looks to be skating right along the Pilbara coast: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 I missed this earlier, but based on this AMSU image, SATCON was up to 82 kts at 13z. That seems like it might be too high, especially since there is frictional dissipation due to land interaction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 22, 2011 Author Share Posted February 22, 2011 I missed this earlier, but based on this AMSU image, SATCON was up to 82 kts at 13z. That seems like it might be too high, especially since there is frictional dissipation due to land interaction. Wow-- 82 kt? Wtf? What do you think is causing it to read so high? Locations right in the path of the center (Mardie, Onslow) have barely had sustained gales, so I have skepticism Re: 82 kt. That having been said, that MW image is pretty decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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