k*** Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Port Vila has south winds, 38kts/g48kts METAR NVVV 210100Z 18038KT48KT 9999 -SHRA FEW015 SCT018 BKN040 OVC100 27/25 Q0993 RMK NIL TEMPO 210100/210400 1000 TSRA SCT002 BKN010 SCT020CB OVC0040 Looks like there are a few personal weather stations that we'll get to monitor as it creeps down the island chain Setting aside the ERC issue, it looks nice from a broader perspective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 21, 2011 Author Share Posted February 21, 2011 Carlos is moving along the Western Australia coast, and the latest BoM forecast has it crossing the North West Cape near Exmouth within 48 hrs just below Cat-3 (AUS) strength, with winds of 60 kt (10-min). A Cyclone Warning is up for the entire Pilbara and N Gascoyne coasts. The satellite presentation isn't exactly anything to write home about-- with convection a bit sheared to the W. One point to note-- form the BoM's Technical Bulletin: Carlos presents a significant storm surge threat especially as tides are close to HAT in this region during the next few days. The shelf wave is likely to cause tides to rise above the high water mark regardless of whether the cyclone directly causes a storm surge on the coast. The Pilbara coast will be on the left (stronger) side of the circulation as the cyclone scrapes the coast, with onshore flow following the passage of the center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 SATCON is up to 62 kts already for Carlos. I'm surprised by that. I'm going to have to adjust the intensity forecast upwards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 21, 2011 Author Share Posted February 21, 2011 SATCON is up to 62 kts already for Carlos. I'm surprised by that. I'm going to have to adjust the intensity forecast upwards. Interesting. Do you feel like it looks like a near-'cane? Like, are you surprised by the SATCON value or surprised because the cyclone looks better than you expected? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Interesting. Do you feel like it looks like a near-'cane? Like, are you surprised by the SATCON value or surprised because the cyclone looks better than you expected? No, it doesn't look like a near-cane to me, but I trust SATCON more than I trust my eyes. That said, it does have a pretty sweet curved band coming out of the center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 21, 2011 Author Share Posted February 21, 2011 No, it doesn't look like a near-cane to me, but I trust SATCON more than I trust my eyes. That said, it does have a pretty sweet curved band coming out of the center. Cool-- well, maybe it's getting its act together. I just looked at the latest IR shots and I'm not too impressed. Tell me, what does SATCON measure, exactly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 SATCON is the weighted average between the CIMSS AMSU, CIMSS ADT, and CIRA AMSU intensity techniques. The weights were determined empirically to minimize error of the in-sample variance compared to recon observations. There was a talk in Tuscon that showed that SATCON has lower error scores than any of the three platforms alone as well as manual Dvorak in the Atlantic and East Pacific for an out of sample set. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 21, 2011 Author Share Posted February 21, 2011 SATCON is the weighted average between the CIMSS AMSU, CIMSS ADT, and CIRA AMSU intensity techniques. The weights were determined empirically to minimize error of the in-sample variance compared to recon observations. There was a talk in Tuscon that showed that SATCON has lower error scores than any of the three platforms alone as well as manual Dvorak in the Atlantic and East Pacific for an out of sample set. Cool, thanks-- definitely good to know this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Here is the recorded presentation from Tuscon: http://ams.confex.com/ams/29Hurricanes/recordingredirect.cgi/id/14868 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Atu is at or near its peak intensity. It was a fun little storm with RI and an ERC. It will start accelerating to the Southeast today, start ET tomorrow and be fully extratropical Thursday. Still thinking it's going to be a monster in the Southern Ocean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 21, 2011 Author Share Posted February 21, 2011 Here is the recorded presentation from Tuscon: http://ams.confex.com/ams/29Hurricanes/recordingredirect.cgi/id/14868 Thanks for the link, Adam! It's good having your around-- you're like the in-house subject-matter expert for all things forecast-related. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 21, 2011 Author Share Posted February 21, 2011 Latest IR of Carlos shows some improvement. The deep convection is battling the shear and trying to wrap around that center: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Thanks for the link, Adam! It's good having your around-- you're like the in-house subject-matter expert for all things forecast-related. And I thought it was for my dapper looks and winning personality Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 21, 2011 Author Share Posted February 21, 2011 And I thought it was for my dapper looks and winning personality Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Very weak, but very important. Why the blank on the 6-10 day? Also an explanation re how to read this may be in order for some of us (especially me.... the mjo has always flummoxed me... I know it's about rainfall but its interaction with el nino throws things a little)) The GEFS just dropped the anomalies in the 6-10d. Not sure why. The map from yesterday showed subsidence over Australia in the 6-10 day period. Here is the Hovmoller the evolution of the anomalies. The GEFS isn't the best model to use for the MJO, but it's the one with most products available. AFAIK, the Euro MJO PS progs are the only ones produced, but it's the only model that has shown skill in predicting the MJO in the medium range. To your general question about the MJO, I could fill a 20 page document about it. Here is a general explanation and you can ask more questions about it from there. The MJO is an eastward propagating wave with a period of ~30-60d (up to 20-90d). The wave is characterized by convergence (divergence) at the surface and divergence (convergence) aloft during the upward (downward) phases of the wave. We're not really sure what causes the MJO as it's not predicted by any of the known equations that govern the atmosphere, though solar influences are suspected. Since convergence and divergence are difficult to assess in the atmosphere, we generally look at things like OLR anomalies and 200mb velocity potential to diagnose the MJO. Wheeler and Hendon (2004) performed a principal component analysis on those parameters and others to develop the MJO phase space in an attempt to explain the most variance associated with different modes of the MJO. Below, you'll find a map with OLR projections for each phase of the MJO for the current period of time. Here is an explanation from the BOM that covers many of the basics in an Australia-centric view. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 21, 2011 Author Share Posted February 21, 2011 Carlos really looks like he wants to visit Port Hedland. http://www.bom.gov.a...loop.shtml#skip Yeah, there does seem to be a bit of a SW wobble. It seems increasingly likely that it'll cross somewhere on the Pilbara or Gascoyne coasts. Latest radar still shows a well-defined (though broad) center and distinct banding, although the core convection is still quite asymmetric: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 21, 2011 Author Share Posted February 21, 2011 OBs for Bedout Island... close to the wall... he's barely puffing. If Carlos manages to skirt the coast and intensify then after Darwin he is certainly one to remember. http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDW60801/IDW60801.94310.shtml Thanks for linking us to this. The obs don't knock my socks off, but they're not bad, either; the island has had solid gales for several hours. Highest values so far: sustained 45 kt (10-min), gust to 55 kt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Thanks for linking us to this. The obs don't knock my socks off, but they're not bad, either; the island has had solid gales for several hours. Highest values so far: sustained 45 kt (10-min), gust to 55 kt. sustained 45 is pretty good for a storm like carlos Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 sustained 45 is pretty good for a storm like carlos It was down to 52 kts in the SATCON update at 11z. Seems like the 8z ob was an outlier. In other news, Atu is back up to 105 kts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 21, 2011 Author Share Posted February 21, 2011 sustained 45 is pretty good for a storm like carlos Agreed. Not only that, the winds have been consistently around that speed for a few hours. I guess the island is quite exposed, so it gets near-marine-exposure winds. Pressure drop, direction change and some starting to get serious gusts at Bedout Yep. Highest winds yet have just occurred: 46 kt gusting to 57. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 21, 2011 Author Share Posted February 21, 2011 Carlos is hitting Hurricane status. http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDW60801/IDW60801.94310.shtml Still reckon he will cross. Bedout is only about 100km roughly north of Port Hedland. Winds are now coming from the north. Well, for a cyclone to reach official hurricane status, it must produce a sustained wind of 64 kt-- not just a gust. But, yes, it's now producing hurricane-force gusts. Highest winds yet: 47 kt gusting to 65, out of the N. The pressure has held steady at around 986 mb for an hour now, so I'll bet it's bottomed out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 21, 2011 Author Share Posted February 21, 2011 One thing these readings show: the cyclone is a tad stronger than the BoM estimated in their last Technical Bulletin, in which they indicated 988 mb/45 kt (10-min). This station has already exceeded both values-- only by a small margin, granted-- but one also has to assume that it did not sample the absolute lowest pressure or highest winds. That Technical Bulletin was from 12Z, so I don't think the BoM was necessarily off. Rather, the cyclone may have strengthened since then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 The 0z and 12z runs of the GFS and CMC both kept Carlos just inland over the next 36 hours as it heads towards Exmouth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Hard to tell from a 4 image radar animation, but I think its more or less paralleling the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 21, 2011 Author Share Posted February 21, 2011 Port Hedland OBs http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDW60801/IDW60801.94312.shtml This TC continues to amaze. . BOM has chosen the JTWC model and while that was scarily unerring for Yasi (and trust me that was the scariest few days of my life when I thought a Cat 5 was heading directly at me, and I have seen a few, but it is particularly enlightening when you have a wooden home on a mountainside facing the Coral Sea) I still think the track is wrong and radar is bearing this out.. Wow-- yeah. Port Hedland is already having 35 kt (10-min), gusting to 52-- an official gale. Nice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 21, 2011 Author Share Posted February 21, 2011 Hard to tell from a 4 image radar animation, but I think its more or less paralleling the coast. Agreed-- with maybe a slight listing toward to the coast-- but, yeah, essentially parallel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 21, 2011 Author Share Posted February 21, 2011 Latest radar still shows the cyclone's center passing a bit N of Port Hedland, which is currently reporting a sustained gale: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 21, 2011 Author Share Posted February 21, 2011 The new advice upgrades Carlos to a Cat 2, with winds of at least 50 kt (10-min)-- a strong TS on our scale. It looks like Port Hedland is within the gale radius but won't get the stronger winds closer to the center: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 21, 2011 Author Share Posted February 21, 2011 Latest radar shows some modest structural improvements, with convection really trying to wrap around that center. I think this could make a go at minimal Cat 3 AUS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 21, 2011 Author Share Posted February 21, 2011 I'm on an iPad right now so I can't post images-- however, I feel the radar presentation is improving. Bands are coiling around the center and it looks it's tightening up a tad. The official BoM intensity (50 kt (10-min)) is pushing hurricane intensity on our 1-min scale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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