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Aussie (& S-Hemisphere) Cyclone Action 2010-2011


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Yeah, you can ignore. kush and I will geek out on this one.

Alright, I'll leave guys alone and let you have some fun with it. :D

I see the JTWC warning shows a very sharp recurve-- once again flirting with the N reaches of NZ. It's been the year of cyclone-remnant action for NZ.

So far so good

Still think the third coming will be more entertaining

Go Carlos

How so? Please elaborate. :)

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Dianne is close to peak intensity. It's going to start moving over cooler water and should go begin ET by Monday.

I have Carlos crossing near Exmouth on Wednesday as an H1/H2. It's dependent on the track remaining over water between tomorrow and Wednesday though.

I think Atu is going to go RI today or tonight and I brought it to Cat 3 by Monday. It should still pass well east of the North Island. If you're into that sort of thing, it looks like it is going to bomb out over the Southern Ocean, too.

OT: but this cold northwesterly wind outside of Philly sucks today.

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Dianne is close to peak intensity. It's going to start moving over cooler water and should go begin ET by Monday.

I have Carlos crossing near Exmouth on Wednesday as an H1/H2. It's dependent on the track remaining over water between tomorrow and Wednesday though.

I think Atu is going to go RI today or tonight and I brought it to Cat 3 by Monday. It should still pass well east of the North Island. If you're into that sort of thing, it looks like it is going to bomb out over the Southern Ocean, too.

OT: but this cold northwesterly wind outside of Philly sucks today.

Hey, Adam-- thanks for the morning update. :)

Re: Carlos-- interesting. So do you see a somewhat of a left bend in the track later in the period? What's the basic trajectory you're expecting with it-- like WSW parallel to the Pilbara coast and then turning more SW or SSW, or...?

OT: I was just thinking today how sick I am of the winter. Prague winters are soul-sucking-- plain and simple. But I keep reminding myself it's almost over, praise the Lord.

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Re: Carlos-- interesting. So do you see a somewhat of a left bend in the track later in the period? What's the basic trajectory you're expecting with it-- like WSW parallel to the Pilbara coast and then turning more SW or SSW, or...?

Yeah, the track I have now basically starts recurvature around Exmouth on Wed/Thur, then turning SSW or S after that.

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After languishing over land for days, Carlos should reemerge over water soon-- with the circulation still vertically stacked (as per the BoM).

The latest BoM forecast suggests Carlos may regenerate into a cyclone and threaten Exmouth as a Cat 3 AUS (a Cat 1 USA) in a few days. The 72-hr position (not shown on this map) has the cyclone a little N of the Exmouth with an intensity of 968 mb/70 kt (10-min):

post-19-0-80293400-1298204914.gif

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Guess I was too conservative for Atu. It's gone bonkers over the last 24 hours.

EDIT: It's undergoing eyewall replacement right now. It will probably give back some of the gains it made yesterday.

Sorry I'm being so lame about Atu. I'll at least mention it in the tagline. I shouldn't make it only about what I like.

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Sorry to bust in on this fishfest, but...

Carlos's remnants are just about offshore now. The BoM shows it regenerating to a cyclone within the next 12 hrs or so, and at the same time, the JTWC has issues a Cyclone Formation Alert. Both agencies indicate steady strengthening despite some moderate shear, and the BoM is predicting a hurricane-force cyclone very near Exmouth in a couple of days.

post-19-0-66564500-1298227734.gif

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Carlos has crossed the Kimberley and is back out over water. Cyclone Warnings to Mardie, and Watches along the rest of the coast (including Onslow and Exmouth).

Let's see what happens.

The BOM forecast is basically a carbon copy of what I put out this morning. The models are tightly clustered on that track. The intensity forecast will be tricky because it will depend on the timing of the shear relaxing.

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The BOM forecast is basically a carbon copy of what I put out this morning. The models are tightly clustered on that track. The intensity forecast will be tricky because it will depend on the timing of the shear relaxing.

Makes sense. The BoM mentions the model clustering, so they and the JTWC are in agreement Re: the track. Reminds me a bit of Yasi.

So, is your gut telling you it'll nick the North West Cape or pass just N? Curious to see what happens with it.

Exmouth got clobbered by very-intense Vance 1999, which blasted right down the Exmouth Gulf.

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Makes sense. The BoM mentions the model clustering, so they and the JTWC are in agreement Re: the track. Reminds me a bit of Yasi.

So, is your gut telling you it'll nick the North West Cape or pass just N? Curious to see what happens with it.

Exmouth got clobbered by very-intense Vance 1999, which blasted right down the Exmouth Gulf.

I think it will pass over Exmouth or glance it (like within 50 mi). My guess is that it will be intensifying as it goes by, but probably only at H1 strength.

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