ninox33 Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 As you mentioned am19psu, Carlos looks like he may head W NW, mmmmm maybe 4 day chart has two more resurrections BOM 4 day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 17P is about to blow up east of Vanuatu. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 18, 2011 Author Share Posted February 18, 2011 17P is about to blow up east of Vanuatu. Yeah, it does look pretty good. But I should just ignore it, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Yeah, it does look pretty good. But I should just ignore it, right? Yeah, you can ignore. kush and I will geek out on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Dianne is wrapping up nicely tonight, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 The vanuatu storm looks nice. Can't wait to get home and check it out on something other than my iPhone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 The vanuatu storm looks nice. Can't wait to get home and check it out on something other than my iPhone. Latest microwave was only partial, but it didn't look as good as it did earlier this afternoon. It still has the best chance of any of them to blow up into something strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
28storms Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ninox33 Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 As you mentioned am19psu, Carlos looks like he may head W NW, mmmmm maybe 4 day chart has two more resurrections BOM 4 day So far so good Still think the third coming will be more entertaining Go Carlos Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 19, 2011 Author Share Posted February 19, 2011 Yeah, you can ignore. kush and I will geek out on this one. Alright, I'll leave guys alone and let you have some fun with it. I see the JTWC warning shows a very sharp recurve-- once again flirting with the N reaches of NZ. It's been the year of cyclone-remnant action for NZ. So far so good Still think the third coming will be more entertaining Go Carlos How so? Please elaborate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Dianne is close to peak intensity. It's going to start moving over cooler water and should go begin ET by Monday. I have Carlos crossing near Exmouth on Wednesday as an H1/H2. It's dependent on the track remaining over water between tomorrow and Wednesday though. I think Atu is going to go RI today or tonight and I brought it to Cat 3 by Monday. It should still pass well east of the North Island. If you're into that sort of thing, it looks like it is going to bomb out over the Southern Ocean, too. OT: but this cold northwesterly wind outside of Philly sucks today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 19, 2011 Author Share Posted February 19, 2011 Dianne is close to peak intensity. It's going to start moving over cooler water and should go begin ET by Monday. I have Carlos crossing near Exmouth on Wednesday as an H1/H2. It's dependent on the track remaining over water between tomorrow and Wednesday though. I think Atu is going to go RI today or tonight and I brought it to Cat 3 by Monday. It should still pass well east of the North Island. If you're into that sort of thing, it looks like it is going to bomb out over the Southern Ocean, too. OT: but this cold northwesterly wind outside of Philly sucks today. Hey, Adam-- thanks for the morning update. Re: Carlos-- interesting. So do you see a somewhat of a left bend in the track later in the period? What's the basic trajectory you're expecting with it-- like WSW parallel to the Pilbara coast and then turning more SW or SSW, or...? OT: I was just thinking today how sick I am of the winter. Prague winters are soul-sucking-- plain and simple. But I keep reminding myself it's almost over, praise the Lord. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 19, 2011 Author Share Posted February 19, 2011 In other news... My business partner has to go back to L.A. for a quick trip, and he's going to pick up my Kestrel and other equipment and bring them back to Prague-- just in case there's a chaseable cyclone in March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Re: Carlos-- interesting. So do you see a somewhat of a left bend in the track later in the period? What's the basic trajectory you're expecting with it-- like WSW parallel to the Pilbara coast and then turning more SW or SSW, or...? Yeah, the track I have now basically starts recurvature around Exmouth on Wed/Thur, then turning SSW or S after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 I'm going to amend the list of things I'd do if I were a billionaire to include the construction and maintenance of radars at Port Vila, Luganville, and Noumea...tired o tracking these storms without better data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 20, 2011 Author Share Posted February 20, 2011 After languishing over land for days, Carlos should reemerge over water soon-- with the circulation still vertically stacked (as per the BoM). The latest BoM forecast suggests Carlos may regenerate into a cyclone and threaten Exmouth as a Cat 3 AUS (a Cat 1 USA) in a few days. The 72-hr position (not shown on this map) has the cyclone a little N of the Exmouth with an intensity of 968 mb/70 kt (10-min): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Guess I was too conservative for Atu. It's gone bonkers over the last 24 hours. EDIT: It's undergoing eyewall replacement right now. It will probably give back some of the gains it made yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 20, 2011 Author Share Posted February 20, 2011 Guess I was too conservative for Atu. It's gone bonkers over the last 24 hours. EDIT: It's undergoing eyewall replacement right now. It will probably give back some of the gains it made yesterday. Sorry I'm being so lame about Atu. I'll at least mention it in the tagline. I shouldn't make it only about what I like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 I shouldn't make it only about what I like. Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Atu certainly looks better this morning compared to yesterday. Impressive cyclone. It will be interesting to see if a come back is ahead after this EWRC... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 I like to look at pictures, although Carlos is edging towards Stage Left... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 wow that is quite the ERC going on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 20, 2011 Author Share Posted February 20, 2011 Sorry to bust in on this fishfest, but... Carlos's remnants are just about offshore now. The BoM shows it regenerating to a cyclone within the next 12 hrs or so, and at the same time, the JTWC has issues a Cyclone Formation Alert. Both agencies indicate steady strengthening despite some moderate shear, and the BoM is predicting a hurricane-force cyclone very near Exmouth in a couple of days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 20, 2011 Author Share Posted February 20, 2011 wow that is quite the ERC going on Talk about a cinnabun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 20, 2011 Author Share Posted February 20, 2011 Carlos has crossed the Kimberley and is back out over water. Cyclone Warnings to Mardie, and Watches along the rest of the coast (including Onslow and Exmouth). Let's see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Carlos has crossed the Kimberley and is back out over water. Cyclone Warnings to Mardie, and Watches along the rest of the coast (including Onslow and Exmouth). Let's see what happens. The BOM forecast is basically a carbon copy of what I put out this morning. The models are tightly clustered on that track. The intensity forecast will be tricky because it will depend on the timing of the shear relaxing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 20, 2011 Author Share Posted February 20, 2011 The BOM forecast is basically a carbon copy of what I put out this morning. The models are tightly clustered on that track. The intensity forecast will be tricky because it will depend on the timing of the shear relaxing. Makes sense. The BoM mentions the model clustering, so they and the JTWC are in agreement Re: the track. Reminds me a bit of Yasi. So, is your gut telling you it'll nick the North West Cape or pass just N? Curious to see what happens with it. Exmouth got clobbered by very-intense Vance 1999, which blasted right down the Exmouth Gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Makes sense. The BoM mentions the model clustering, so they and the JTWC are in agreement Re: the track. Reminds me a bit of Yasi. So, is your gut telling you it'll nick the North West Cape or pass just N? Curious to see what happens with it. Exmouth got clobbered by very-intense Vance 1999, which blasted right down the Exmouth Gulf. I think it will pass over Exmouth or glance it (like within 50 mi). My guess is that it will be intensifying as it goes by, but probably only at H1 strength. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Atu's ERC is coming along nicely...seems to have cleared a lot of that old inner eyewall debris out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 20, 2011 Author Share Posted February 20, 2011 The JTWC has resumed warnings for Carlos. The forecast looks very similar to the BoM's, showing a 70-kt 'cane passing just a hair N of the North West Cape in under 48 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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