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Aussie (& S-Hemisphere) Cyclone Action 2010-2011


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My intensity forecast is a lot closer to CHIPS than STIPS (ST10/ST11) for Dianne. This storm doesn't look to be in an ideal position to intensify. I'm still ok with my track forecast from this morning.

temp3.png

It doesn't look like Carlos is going to move over water anytime soon. Might amount to nothing more than a prolific rain maker.

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My intensity forecast is a lot closer to CHIPS than STIPS (ST10/ST11) for Dianne. This storm doesn't look to be in an ideal position to intensify. I'm still ok with my track forecast from this morning.

It doesn't look like Carlos is going to move over water anytime soon. Might amount to nothing more than a prolific rain maker.

I don't typically look at track verification outside of the NH basins...so what is your assessment/opinion of the globals (for track especially) recently for these storms in the SH?

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Particularly around the Top End, the steering flow is often weak and there are large track errors. Elsewhere, at least this season, the models have been just as strong in the SH as they were in the NH in 2010. I wouldn't suspect you'd see much difference in MAE for tracks. Caveat: I am much more sensitive about cross track error than I am along track error, so there might be large timing differences that I'm not considering.

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Particularly around the Top End, the steering flow is often weak and there are large track errors. Elsewhere, at least this season, the models have been just as strong in the SH as they were in the NH in 2010. I wouldn't suspect you'd see much difference in MAE for tracks. Caveat: I am much more sensitive about cross track error than I am along track error, so there might be large timing differences that I'm not considering.

Fair enough. We can actually break up the track error into along/cross track components with our verification package in addition to the usual MAE (though I typically focus on the cross track error myself as well).

The Australian/SH thread has inspired me to consider including the SH basins (TC errors) when I compile experimental results (we typically ignore the tropics when we do NH winter experiments).

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Looks like I was wrong about the intensification rate for Dianne.

It's looking pretty good right now. I notice the JTWC brings it very close to the W coast and strengthening up to 80 kt as it does so. (The new JTWC warning is due out in ~90 mins, so we'll see if there are any changes to this.)

The BoM currently has it at 55 kt (10-min)-- close to a 'cane on our scale. Unlike the JTWC, they have it weakening by the time it nears the coast.

Re: Carlos... Yeah, what a disappointment. It's a bummer, because the system clearly had sh*tloads of potential. it just couldn't get its butt over the water. Imagine if it had moved 75 mi to the NW and looped there instead?

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The latest JTWC packages are total buzzkills. :lol:

* They've issued the Final Warning on Carlos, which continues to languish over the Top End.

* They now keep Dianne well offshore-- so no excitement there.

In other news... The Fiji Met Service indicates a high possibility of a disturbance E of Vanuatu spinning up into a cyclone as it moves W-- however, the BoM sounds enthused, remarking, "A weak low in the far eastern northern Coral Sea will move slowly west during the remainder of the week. Conditions will remain unfavourable for any significant development."

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I kept Dianne off the coast but nearby. It wouldn't take much adjustment to bring it inland. I have it as H2 tomorrow morning and Saturday morning, then weakening steadily from there.

I kept Carlos alive as a landphoon through early next week.

The thing near 170E is almost surely going to become a TC and head SEward.

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Which begs the question...why does this basin has hispanic names?

:lol:

I was wondering the same thing. It makes no sense. Since Australia and occasionally New Zealand are essentially the only countries affected in this regions, it seems all the names should be Anglo or Aboriginal.

I have the same question Re: the EPAC. Why aren't all the names Spanish? The only countries affected are Mexico and-- in a blue moon-- Guatemala. (OK, I guess the USA occasionally gets remnants. But still...) It is ridiculous for cyclones in that basin to have names like John, Lane, etc. Totally puzzling.

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To continue Re: names for a second... I noticed that folks in Spanish-speaking countries will use Spanish equivalents sometimes when referring to Anglo-named cyclones. For example, I was talking to a Mexican chick and she referred to Gilbert 1988 as "Gilberto". And I know in Nicaragua, Joan 1988 is referred to as "Juana".

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To continue Re: names for a second... I noticed that folks in Spanish-speaking countries will use Spanish equivalents sometimes when referring to Anglo-named cyclones. For example, I was talking to a Mexican chick and she referred to Gilbert 1988 as "Gilberto". And I know in Nicaragua, Joan 1988 is referred to as "Juana".

Not all, and probably it's even less common nowadays, but there are always exceptions like Wilma (which is a special case, since it was written with a W but pronounced with a V). John was John (not Juan) for example

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Maybe because we are a very multicultural and PC nation??

Look at the list for the next few years and you will see names from Asia, Europe etc

All adds to the flavour I think

I wonder who Errol will do and who will Iggy pop? whistle.gif

Future Oz cyclone names

But I would think that regional names-- ones that reflect the culture and customs of the inhabitants of the affected region-- make more sense. The purpose of a cyclone name is to give government officials, the media, and the general public an easy way to refer to a dangerous-- and, after the fact, historic-- weather system. It just seems to make sense that these names be easy for the affected population to read, spell, and pronounce.

Again, the EPAC comes to mind. The only countries affected are all Spanish-speaking. I don't see why the cyclones aren't all named in Spanish.

P.S. How are you, by the way? Are all the guys at NAC disappointed in Carlos? It kind of flopped-- after an exciting start.

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All good Josh

Hard to be disappointed with such a wet system, has he even got over salt water yet apart from one of darwin harbour's arms??

Rainfall records getting smashed, not for a 24h period in the NT, but Feb, 24h in darwin and possible for the wet season

Carlos is teasing and forecast to head to the JB gulf, but could continue the south movement

All we hope for is more rain as we have become spoilt this week, praying for some lightning active storms to eventuate and one eye on the models for the future

i heard a similar event is up for early March but that's a way off

MJO is AWOL

The season astounds, I read earlier that La Nina is fading but I can't see that especially looking at the monthly averages, ask me that in April lol ;0)

PS One of the NAC crew "ThunderStruck" a BOM employee won this photo comp

Now thats what we expect every season, cyclones are rare cherries on top

TS's winning picture

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All good Josh

Hard to be disappointed with such a wet system, has he even got over salt water yet apart from one of darwin harbour's arms??

Rainfall records getting smashed, not for a 24h period in the NT, but Feb, 24h in darwin and possible for the wet season

Carlos is teasing and forecast to head to the JB gulf, but could continue the south movement

All we hope for is more rain as we have become spoilt this week, praying for some lightning active storms to eventuate and one eye on the models for the future

i heard a similar event is up for early March but that's a way off

MJO is AWOL

The season astounds, I read earlier that La Nina is fading but I can't see that especially looking at the monthly averages, ask me that in April lol ;0)

Yeah, I shouldn't downplay Carlos. I'm personally so into wind events that I tend to overlook big rainmakers. It's a personal bias of mine, and I certainly didn't mean to downplay the cyclone's tremendous impact. The rain totals really are phenomenal.

PS One of the NAC crew "ThunderStruck" a BOM employee won this photo comp

Now thats what we expect every season, cyclones are rare cherries on top

TS's winning picture

Wow-- gorgeous pic. Really nice.

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The JTWC has issued a Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert for Invest 90P, the thing in the S Pacific E of Vanuatu.

Adam says it'll definitely fish to the S, and the BoM is similarly unconcerned about it in their daily Outlook for the Coral Sea:

Another low, approximately 2500km east of Queensland is not expected to approach Australia or even enter the Coral Sea.

Blah.

In other news, Cyclone Bingiza-- remember that one?-- finally came ashore again yesterday evening in SW Madagascar as a weak TS, after skirting S along the W coast of that country for the last couple of days. Put a fork in it!

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Major shift in all of the guidance this morning. They all take Dianne SW instead of SE (the Euro had this 5 days ago, then dropped it) and shouldn't be a threat to land. Carlos is still alive and kicking and should move off the Kimberley coast on Sunday or Monday. Once over water, it will reform into a tropical cyclone that grazes most of the Pilbara coast and looks to come close to Exmouth.

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