am19psu Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Here are the last 3 hours of METARs from Darwin YPDN 151305Z 35015G28KT 1000 +RA BKN006 OVC040 24/24 Q1002 YPDN 151300Z 35012KT 1000 +RA BKN006 OVC040 24/24 Q1003 YPDN 151236Z 33008KT 1000 +RA BKN006 OVC040 23/23 Q1001 YPDN 151230Z 01025G38KT 1000 +RA BKN006 OVC040 23/23 Q1001 YPDN 151222Z 36025G35KT 1000 +RA BKN007 OVC040 23/23 Q1002 FM1222 33028G40KT 3000 RA BKN010 BKN025 TEMPO 1222/1230 VRB20G45KT 1000 TSRA BKN010 SCT020CB RMK USE TAF FOR ARRIVALS AFTER 1230Z YPDN 151212Z 33029G49KT 1000 +RA BKN007 OVC040 23/23 Q1002 FM1212 33028G40KT 3000 RA BKN010 BKN025 TEMPO 1200/1230 VRB20G45KT 1000 TSRA BKN010 SCT020CB RMK USE TAF FOR ARRIVALS AFTER 1230Z YPDN 151200Z 36030G44KT 1000 +RA BKN007 OVC040 23/23 Q1001 FM1200 33028G40KT 3000 RA BKN010 BKN025 TEMPO 1200/1230 VRB20G45KT 1000 TSRA BKN010 SCT020CB YPDN 151156Z 01025KT 1000 +RA BKN007 OVC040 23/23 Q1002 FM1156 33028G40KT 3000 RA BKN010 BKN025 TEMPO 1156/1230 VRB20G45KT 1000 TSRA BKN010 SCT020CB RMK USE TAF FOR ARRIVALS AFTER 1230Z YPDN 151143Z 35038G53KT 1000 +RA SCT007 OVC050 23/23 Q1001 FM1143 33028G40KT 3000 RA BKN010 BKN025 TEMPO 1143/1230 VRB20G45KT 1000 TSRA BKN010 SCT020CB RMK USE TAF FOR ARRIVALS AFTER 1230Z YPDN 151130Z 35033G43KT 1500 +RA SCT007 OVC050 24/23 Q1001 FM1130 33028G40KT 3000 RA BKN010 BKN025 TEMPO 1130/1230 VRB20G45KT 1000 TSRA BKN010 SCT020CB RMK USE TAF FOR ARRIVALS AFTER 1230Z YPDN 151100Z 35033G45KT 2000 RA SCT007 OVC050 23/23 Q1001 FM1100 33028G40KT 3000 RA BKN010 BKN025 TEMPO 1100/1230 VRB20G45KT 1000 TSRA BKN010 SCT020CB YPDN 151030Z 36031G45KT 2000 RA BKN007 OVC050 24/23 Q1001 FM1030 33028G40KT 3000 RA BKN010 BKN025 TEMPO 1030/1230 VRB20G45KT 1000 TSRA BKN010 SCT020CB RMK USE TAF FOR ARRIVALS AFTER 1230Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 15, 2011 Author Share Posted February 15, 2011 I just chatted with Stephen (alby_14) in Darwin via Skype. They've had about 10 in of rain since the morning, and some really heavy cells are just camped out right over the city. He says trees are down everywhere, with the airport having a gust up to 56 kt. Pretty cool. Most interesting is that people in Darwin seem a bit spooked by the low-- and there's talk of it really spinning up if it moves just a little offshore. (Stephen isn't so bullish.) But if the low can just push out over the water, it would be really interesting to see what happens with it. There's so much energy-- it just needs to organize a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ninox33 Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 mmmm 545mm all time NT 24h record is up for grabs tonight Marrara put 100mm in the gauge from 11pm till midnight, up to 347mm this one is slipping under the radar so far lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 15, 2011 Author Share Posted February 15, 2011 The latest Technical Bulletin from Darwin is interesting-- especially the fact that the Low is getting better organized while still over land! The tropical low continues to intensify with a strong rainband and curvature on radar. Good position based on surface observations, radar not so good with radar images intermittent in past few hours. Wind 0600UTC pilot data from Darwin Airport indicates NW 50kt below 7000ft with surface winds reaching 30kt with 45 kt in squalls. Convective structure slowly improving with 0.4 wrap of deep convection in northern semicircle, yielding DT=2.5. FT based on PAT=MET=2.5. Darwin experiencing very heavy rainfall with northern suburbs over 200mm since 9am and near gales observed at the Airport with gusts to 50 knots. The forecast has the cyclone moving N and then bending W to skirt the S coast of Bathurst Island-- and the 72-hr forecast has it pushing hurricane intensity (55 kt (10-min)). Interesting situation, given the system's close proximity to Darwin! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Last two-ish hours of obs at Darwin YPDN 151534Z 01026G38KT 3000 RA BKN006 OVC040 24/23 Q1001 YPDN 151530Z 36023KT 3000 RA BKN006 OVC040 24/24 Q1001 YPDN 151500Z 35025G39KT 1000 +RA BKN006 OVC040 24/24 Q1002 YPDN 151430Z 34029G43KT 1000 +RA BKN006 OVC040 23/23 Q1002 YPDN 151422Z 35025G37KT 1000 +RA BKN006 OVC040 24/24 Q1003 YPDN 151420Z 36022KT 1000 +RA BKN006 OVC040 24/24 Q1003 YPDN 151400Z 35033G44KT 1000 +RA BKN006 OVC040 24/24 Q1002 YPDN 151337Z 36031G41KT 1000 +RA BKN006 OVC040 23/23 Q1002 YPDN 151330Z 35030KT 1000 +RA BKN006 OVC040 24/24 Q1002 YPDN 151326Z 34028G39KT 1000 +RA BKN006 OVC040 24/24 Q1002 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 15, 2011 Author Share Posted February 15, 2011 Last two-ish hours of obs at Darwin Cool. When you convert to 1-min, they've had a few hours of sustained winds near or over gale force. That's a vigorous low, and the fact that the winds are so consistent (over several hours) suggests they're indicative of the overall system's vigor, not just a couple of errant cells. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 15, 2011 Author Share Posted February 15, 2011 By the way, given that DRW has had sustained winds of 33 kt (10-min), and that it's highly unlikely that location (several miles inland) has sampled the system's highest winds, I am wondering why the BoM hasn't upgraded this to Cyclone Carlos. I am sure it's producing 35-kt winds somewhere in the circulation. EDIT: Someone on the NAS forum suggested-- quite logically-- that perhaps the system doesn't meet the structural requirements yet. I guess it's like when we have a wave here that's producing gales but isn't a TS because the circulation's not closed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 15, 2011 Author Share Posted February 15, 2011 Far view. Sure looks like a cyclone, doesn't it? This having been said, my impression-- based on the current surface-center location and this IR shot-- is that convection is mostly E of the center-- so perhaps it's just not there yet structurally, despite its obvious vigor: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 15, 2011 Author Share Posted February 15, 2011 The JTWC has just declared this baby a bona-fide cyclone, with winds of 35 kt (1-min). After having it meander near the Top End for a day or two, they bring it SW to a landfall near Wyndham by Day 3 as a hurricane, with winds of 65 kt (1-min). This is remarkably close to am19psu's forecast from earlier today! Nice, Adam! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 15, 2011 Author Share Posted February 15, 2011 Meanwhile, on the other side of the Indian Ocean... Cyclone Bingiza has spilled out into the Mozambique Channel, and the JTWC indicates it's already "started to consolidate". They indicate steady strengthening to near hurricane force before landfall on the W coast of Madagascar between Days 2 and 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ninox33 Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 The JTWC has just declared this baby a bona-fide cyclone, with winds of 35 kt (1-min). After having it meander near the Top End for a day or two, they bring it SW to a landfall near Wyndham by Day 3 as a hurricane, with winds of 65 kt (1-min). This is remarkably close to am19psu's forecast from earlier today! Nice, Adam! Time will tell Josh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 15, 2011 Author Share Posted February 15, 2011 Some video from Darwin at night. I sense some impatience around the fact that the BoM hasn't named the system yet-- and, looking at the video, I have to say, it sure looks like a cyclone to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 16, 2011 Author Share Posted February 16, 2011 The Tropical Low is right on the coast very near Darwin, and an apparent "eye-like" feature is causing areas of calm in and around the city. But it's still not named! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ninox33 Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Its momentarily weakened now Josh and tracking east Still on for later Further east better for darwin if it returns Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 16, 2011 Author Share Posted February 16, 2011 So the dudes on the other NorthAusChasers forum-- many of whom live in and around Darwin and the Top End-- report lots of downed trees all over-- some of them quite large. Couple this with record-breaking rainfall, and this is one of the most significant tropical systems to affect the city in many years. But it doesn't have a name! Nutty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 16, 2011 Author Share Posted February 16, 2011 Its momentarily weakened now Josh and tracking east Still on for later Further east better for darwin if it returns Hey, Sean-- I saw you guys talking about that on the NAS forum. Have you guys confirmed that it's really heading E-- and that it's not just a temporary wobble? Sometimes it's hard to tell with these immature systems. Too bad it can't just clear land already! This one seems to have so much potential. It's amazing how much havoc it's caused with the center over land this whole time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 what's in a name? that which we call a cyclone by any other name would spin just as clockwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Even though it looks "good," I haven't seen any satellite estimates above T2.5 yet, which isn't enough for a name on the Aussie scale. That said, I'm not entirely sure if the Aussies use land obs because there was certainly enough from Darwin today to say it has 35 kt (10 min) sustained winds somewhere with open exposure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 16, 2011 Author Share Posted February 16, 2011 what's in a name? that which we call a cyclone by any other name would spin just as clockwise. Even though it looks "good," I haven't seen any satellite estimates above T2.5 yet, which isn't enough for a name on the Aussie scale. That said, I'm not entirely sure if the Aussies use land obs because there was certainly enough from Darwin today to say it has 35 kt (10 min) sustained winds somewhere with open exposure. But why shouldn't surface obs count? I feel they should take precedence over all else. Those DRW obs today most certainly suggested sustained (10-min) gales in exposed areas. If they believe the circulation is closed-- which it seems to be, based on surface obs-- I just don't understand why this thing ain't named Carlos. I'm not questioning the judgment of the BoM-- of course they are the experts. I'm just saying I don't understand it. Would be cool to hear their reasoning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ninox33 Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Suppose BOM are following the rules, closest it got was a landphoon, winds at the centre are the reason IMO Nice radar loop of past few days Time lapse radar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Suppose BOM are following the rules, closest it got was a landphoon, winds at the centre are the reason IMO Yeah, that's probably part of it. It's never been fully over water, so they may not be allowed to name it a TC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 16, 2011 Author Share Posted February 16, 2011 Suppose BOM are following the rules, closest it got was a landphoon, winds at the centre are the reason IMO Nice radar loop of past few days Time lapse radar Yeah, that's probably part of it. It's never been fully over water, so they may not be allowed to name it a TC. OK, perhaps that explains it. But, hey-- it's been straddling the coast all day, and isn't it deriving its energy primarily from the Timor Sea? It seems that, despite the exact location of the center, this system is a tropical cyclone in its essence. Anyhoo, I'm sure they have their reasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 16, 2011 Author Share Posted February 16, 2011 And we have Cyclone Carlos! The center is currently almost right over Darwin-- the advice position is 3 km NE of the city center (12.4S 130.9E). Dudes on the NAS forum are reporting calms and even some sun trying to break through. The BoM forecast track is loopy-- which is not surprising, given the weak steering currents. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ninox33 Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Pretty standard for our TCs especially around us, loopy tracks can be the norm All rules are usually out Yasi was unique in ways for the east coast WAs can be sort of predictable but in the NT we hold our breathes for days Sleepless nights will result from Carlos lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 It'll be off to the races if it can just stay clear of land for a second...shear is low, lots of warm water. The top end is always annoying like this, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 16, 2011 Author Share Posted February 16, 2011 Pretty standard for our TCs especially around us, loopy tracks can be the norm All rules are usually out Yasi was unique in ways for the east coast WAs can be sort of predictable but in the NT we hold our breathes for days Sleepless nights will result from Carlos lol Yeah, totally. As I mentioned on NAS, it's like Yasi was on an express train for Queensland-- just totally predictable and yummy as a chase subject. It'll be off to the races if it can just stay clear of land for a second...shear is low, lots of warm water. The top end is always annoying like this, though. Totally. Just the fact that it's become such a vigorous system with the center over land is very telling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 16, 2011 Author Share Posted February 16, 2011 It's been a rich and action-packed few weeks S of the equator, hasn't it? * Cyclone Yasi hitting Queensland. * Cyclone Bingiza hitting Madagascar. * Cyclone Carlos hitting Darwin. Lots o' action. An interesting season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 16, 2011 Author Share Posted February 16, 2011 The BoM puts Carlos's current intensity at 996 mb/35 kt (10-min). Interesting comment in the Technical Bulletin: TC Carlos was named at 11 am, based on Dvorak FT=3.0 and gale force winds at Fish Reef near Darwin Harbour. Dvorak assessment based on curved band with 0.6 wrap. Radar indicates well-defined spiral bands within about 50 nm of the centre. Position good, based on radar animation and surface observations, with Darwin Airport recording light winds in a nascent eye feature. Cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 16, 2011 Author Share Posted February 16, 2011 When it comes to naming technically the bom stick with 33knots sustained for six hours.... although this clearly did not apply to Tasha on xmas day. Oh, hi, boomer-- how are you? You've been absent during all the excitement! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 16, 2011 Author Share Posted February 16, 2011 In other news: * The JTWC has declared Cyclone 16S-- NW of Exmouth. They bring it due S and show a strong 'cane off the W coast of Australia in a couple of days. * Bingiza is staying very close to the W coast of Madagascar-- so close that it probably won't get too much stronger before it turns back inland again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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