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Aussie (& S-Hemisphere) Cyclone Action 2010-2011


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Here are the last 3 hours of METARs from Darwin

YPDN 151305Z 35015G28KT 1000 +RA BKN006 OVC040 24/24 Q1002
YPDN 151300Z 35012KT 1000 +RA BKN006 OVC040 24/24 Q1003
YPDN 151236Z 33008KT 1000 +RA BKN006 OVC040 23/23 Q1001
YPDN 151230Z 01025G38KT 1000 +RA BKN006 OVC040 23/23 Q1001
YPDN 151222Z 36025G35KT 1000 +RA BKN007 OVC040 23/23 Q1002 FM1222 33028G40KT 3000 RA BKN010 BKN025 TEMPO 1222/1230 VRB20G45KT 1000 TSRA BKN010 SCT020CB RMK USE TAF FOR ARRIVALS AFTER 1230Z
YPDN 151212Z 33029G49KT 1000 +RA BKN007 OVC040 23/23 Q1002 FM1212 33028G40KT 3000 RA BKN010 BKN025 TEMPO 1200/1230 VRB20G45KT 1000 TSRA BKN010 SCT020CB RMK USE TAF FOR ARRIVALS AFTER 1230Z
YPDN 151200Z 36030G44KT 1000 +RA BKN007 OVC040 23/23 Q1001 FM1200 33028G40KT 3000 RA BKN010 BKN025 TEMPO 1200/1230 VRB20G45KT 1000 TSRA BKN010 SCT020CB
YPDN 151156Z 01025KT 1000 +RA BKN007 OVC040 23/23 Q1002 FM1156 33028G40KT 3000 RA BKN010 BKN025 TEMPO 1156/1230 VRB20G45KT 1000 TSRA BKN010 SCT020CB RMK USE TAF FOR ARRIVALS AFTER 1230Z
YPDN 151143Z 35038G53KT 1000 +RA SCT007 OVC050 23/23 Q1001 FM1143 33028G40KT 3000 RA BKN010 BKN025 TEMPO 1143/1230 VRB20G45KT 1000 TSRA BKN010 SCT020CB RMK USE TAF FOR ARRIVALS AFTER 1230Z
YPDN 151130Z 35033G43KT 1500 +RA SCT007 OVC050 24/23 Q1001 FM1130 33028G40KT 3000 RA BKN010 BKN025 TEMPO 1130/1230 VRB20G45KT 1000 TSRA BKN010 SCT020CB RMK USE TAF FOR ARRIVALS AFTER 1230Z
YPDN 151100Z 35033G45KT 2000 RA SCT007 OVC050 23/23 Q1001 FM1100 33028G40KT 3000 RA BKN010 BKN025 TEMPO 1100/1230 VRB20G45KT 1000 TSRA BKN010 SCT020CB
YPDN 151030Z 36031G45KT 2000 RA BKN007 OVC050 24/23 Q1001 FM1030 33028G40KT 3000 RA BKN010 BKN025 TEMPO 1030/1230 VRB20G45KT 1000 TSRA BKN010 SCT020CB RMK USE TAF FOR ARRIVALS AFTER 1230Z

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I just chatted with Stephen (alby_14) in Darwin via Skype. They've had about 10 in of rain since the morning, and some really heavy cells are just camped out right over the city. He says trees are down everywhere, with the airport having a gust up to 56 kt. Pretty cool.

Most interesting is that people in Darwin seem a bit spooked by the low-- and there's talk of it really spinning up if it moves just a little offshore. (Stephen isn't so bullish.)

But if the low can just push out over the water, it would be really interesting to see what happens with it. There's so much energy-- it just needs to organize a bit.

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The latest Technical Bulletin from Darwin is interesting-- especially the fact that the Low is getting better organized while still over land!

The tropical low continues to intensify with a strong rainband and curvature on radar. Good position based on surface observations, radar not so good with radar images intermittent in past few hours. Wind 0600UTC pilot data from Darwin Airport indicates NW 50kt below 7000ft with surface winds reaching 30kt with 45 kt in squalls. Convective structure slowly improving with 0.4 wrap of deep convection in northern semicircle, yielding DT=2.5. FT based on PAT=MET=2.5. Darwin experiencing very heavy rainfall with northern suburbs over 200mm since 9am and near gales observed at the Airport with gusts to 50 knots.

The forecast has the cyclone moving N and then bending W to skirt the S coast of Bathurst Island-- and the 72-hr forecast has it pushing hurricane intensity (55 kt (10-min)).

Interesting situation, given the system's close proximity to Darwin!

post-19-0-98929500-1297782714.gif

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Last two-ish hours of obs at Darwin

YPDN 151534Z 01026G38KT 3000 RA BKN006 OVC040 24/23 Q1001
YPDN 151530Z 36023KT 3000 RA BKN006 OVC040 24/24 Q1001
YPDN 151500Z 35025G39KT 1000 +RA BKN006 OVC040 24/24 Q1002
YPDN 151430Z 34029G43KT 1000 +RA BKN006 OVC040 23/23 Q1002
YPDN 151422Z 35025G37KT 1000 +RA BKN006 OVC040 24/24 Q1003
YPDN 151420Z 36022KT 1000 +RA BKN006 OVC040 24/24 Q1003
YPDN 151400Z 35033G44KT 1000 +RA BKN006 OVC040 24/24 Q1002
YPDN 151337Z 36031G41KT 1000 +RA BKN006 OVC040 23/23 Q1002
YPDN 151330Z 35030KT 1000 +RA BKN006 OVC040 24/24 Q1002
YPDN 151326Z 34028G39KT 1000 +RA BKN006 OVC040 24/24 Q1002

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Last two-ish hours of obs at Darwin

Cool. When you convert to 1-min, they've had a few hours of sustained winds near or over gale force. That's a vigorous low, and the fact that the winds are so consistent (over several hours) suggests they're indicative of the overall system's vigor, not just a couple of errant cells.

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By the way, given that DRW has had sustained winds of 33 kt (10-min), and that it's highly unlikely that location (several miles inland) has sampled the system's highest winds, I am wondering why the BoM hasn't upgraded this to Cyclone Carlos. I am sure it's producing 35-kt winds somewhere in the circulation.

EDIT: Someone on the NAS forum suggested-- quite logically-- that perhaps the system doesn't meet the structural requirements yet. I guess it's like when we have a wave here that's producing gales but isn't a TS because the circulation's not closed.

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The JTWC has just declared this baby a bona-fide cyclone, with winds of 35 kt (1-min). After having it meander near the Top End for a day or two, they bring it SW to a landfall near Wyndham by Day 3 as a hurricane, with winds of 65 kt (1-min).

This is remarkably close to am19psu's forecast from earlier today! Nice, Adam! :thumbsup:

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Meanwhile, on the other side of the Indian Ocean...

Cyclone Bingiza has spilled out into the Mozambique Channel, and the JTWC indicates it's already "started to consolidate". They indicate steady strengthening to near hurricane force before landfall on the W coast of Madagascar between Days 2 and 3.

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The JTWC has just declared this baby a bona-fide cyclone, with winds of 35 kt (1-min). After having it meander near the Top End for a day or two, they bring it SW to a landfall near Wyndham by Day 3 as a hurricane, with winds of 65 kt (1-min).

This is remarkably close to am19psu's forecast from earlier today! Nice, Adam! :thumbsup:

Time will tell Josh

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So the dudes on the other NorthAusChasers forum-- many of whom live in and around Darwin and the Top End-- report lots of downed trees all over-- some of them quite large. Couple this with record-breaking rainfall, and this is one of the most significant tropical systems to affect the city in many years.

But it doesn't have a name!

Nutty.

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Its momentarily weakened now Josh and tracking east

Still on for later

Further east better for darwin if it returns

Hey, Sean-- I saw you guys talking about that on the NAS forum. Have you guys confirmed that it's really heading E-- and that it's not just a temporary wobble? Sometimes it's hard to tell with these immature systems.

Too bad it can't just clear land already! This one seems to have so much potential. It's amazing how much havoc it's caused with the center over land this whole time!

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Even though it looks "good," I haven't seen any satellite estimates above T2.5 yet, which isn't enough for a name on the Aussie scale. That said, I'm not entirely sure if the Aussies use land obs because there was certainly enough from Darwin today to say it has 35 kt (10 min) sustained winds somewhere with open exposure.

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what's in a name? that which we call a cyclone by any other name would spin just as clockwise.

:P

Even though it looks "good," I haven't seen any satellite estimates above T2.5 yet, which isn't enough for a name on the Aussie scale. That said, I'm not entirely sure if the Aussies use land obs because there was certainly enough from Darwin today to say it has 35 kt (10 min) sustained winds somewhere with open exposure.

But why shouldn't surface obs count? I feel they should take precedence over all else. Those DRW obs today most certainly suggested sustained (10-min) gales in exposed areas. If they believe the circulation is closed-- which it seems to be, based on surface obs-- I just don't understand why this thing ain't named Carlos.

I'm not questioning the judgment of the BoM-- of course they are the experts. I'm just saying I don't understand it. Would be cool to hear their reasoning.

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Suppose BOM are following the rules, closest it got was a landphoon, winds at the centre are the reason IMO

Nice radar loop of past few days

Time lapse radar

Yeah, that's probably part of it. It's never been fully over water, so they may not be allowed to name it a TC.

OK, perhaps that explains it.

But, hey-- it's been straddling the coast all day, and isn't it deriving its energy primarily from the Timor Sea? It seems that, despite the exact location of the center, this system is a tropical cyclone in its essence.

Anyhoo, I'm sure they have their reasons.

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And we have Cyclone Carlos! B)

The center is currently almost right over Darwin-- the advice position is 3 km NE of the city center (12.4S 130.9E). Dudes on the NAS forum are reporting calms and even some sun trying to break through. The BoM forecast track is loopy-- which is not surprising, given the weak steering currents.

post-19-0-22509700-1297819940.gif

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Pretty standard for our TCs especially around us, loopy tracks can be the norm

All rules are usually out

Yasi was unique in ways for the east coast

WAs can be sort of predictable

but in the NT we hold our breathes for days

Sleepless nights will result from Carlos lol

Yeah, totally. As I mentioned on NAS, it's like Yasi was on an express train for Queensland-- just totally predictable and yummy as a chase subject.

It'll be off to the races if it can just stay clear of land for a second...shear is low, lots of warm water.

The top end is always annoying like this, though.

Totally.

Just the fact that it's become such a vigorous system with the center over land is very telling.

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The BoM puts Carlos's current intensity at 996 mb/35 kt (10-min). Interesting comment in the Technical Bulletin:

TC Carlos was named at 11 am, based on Dvorak FT=3.0 and gale force winds at Fish Reef near Darwin Harbour. Dvorak assessment based on curved band with 0.6 wrap. Radar indicates well-defined spiral bands within about 50 nm of the centre. Position good, based on radar animation and surface observations,
with Darwin Airport recording light winds in a nascent eye feature.

Cool.

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In other news:

* The JTWC has declared Cyclone 16S-- NW of Exmouth. They bring it due S and show a strong 'cane off the W coast of Australia in a couple of days.

* Bingiza is staying very close to the W coast of Madagascar-- so close that it probably won't get too much stronger before it turns back inland again.

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