Aussie (& S-Hemisphere) Cyclone Action 2010-2011

[HM]

HM-- you commented in the Atlantic thread that things might start getting active Down Under. Please elaborate!

Commented in the wrong thread, wow....anyway:

Well, I am predicting an MJO wave for early-mid December that will propagate through the Indian Ocean and Indonesia. Perhaps, initially, the response will be in the S IO but ultimately I think the S PAC will get in on the action mid or even late Dec. Think back to previous La Niña winters and some of them got started early out here...which makes sense. The warm pool has consolidated nicely and is stronger than normal, given the stronger trades have pushed the warmest water here. If the MJO wave fails, there still will be the Walker-induced convection from ENSO that could potentially get something going.

[alby_14]

Gday everyone, good to see alot have migrated over to the new forum Thanks to Josh for pointing me in the right direction.

Great summary on the first page Josh! Its looking like this season could have the goods to deliver! Im crossing everything for a Darwin crossing, even risking twisted testes! The MJO is shaping up nicely for an early December visit which could trigger an early TC in the NT waters. The waters around the NT are often visited by early TC's as our waters warm early (already over 30-31c) and the monsoon trough is approaching from Indonesia providing the vorticity/low potential. If wind shear and other upper features behave.... Bingo!

If your thinking about chasing, forget the NT unless something is lining up Darwin or Gove and you can fly in prior. We just dont have the roads up here and you cant get close to the coast apart from the 2 mentioned! NW WA (the Kimberley region), forget it. Broome and south possibly but it is an extremely isolated part of the world. You will encounter accommodation and hire car issues. Again the only option is to hope it lines up a town and you can fly there. QLD is the opposite. The roads are great and there is no shortage of towns/services etc. But only south of Cairns! Anything north, forget it! I would have to say that Darwin is a good basing point as there are numerous flights to most places, east and west. Plus we get some great storms to keep one entertained whilst waiting/deciding.

[HurricaneJosh]

Gday everyone, good to see alot have migrated over to the new forum Thanks to Josh for pointing me in the right direction.

Great summary on the first page Josh! Its looking like this season could have the goods to deliver! Im crossing everything for a Darwin crossing, even risking twisted testes! The MJO is shaping up nicely for an early December visit which could trigger an early TC in the NT waters. The waters around the NT are often visited by early TC's as our waters warm early (already over 30-31c) and the monsoon trough is approaching from Indonesia providing the vorticity/low potential. If wind shear and other upper features behave.... Bingo!

If your thinking about chasing, forget the NT unless something is lining up Darwin or Gove and you can fly in prior. We just dont have the roads up here and you cant get close to the coast apart from the 2 mentioned! NW WA (the Kimberley region), forget it. Broome and south possibly but it is an extremely isolated part of the world. You will encounter accommodation and hire car issues. Again the only option is to hope it lines up a town and you can fly there. QLD is the opposite. The roads are great and there is no shortage of towns/services etc. But only south of Cairns! Anything north, forget it! I would have to say that Darwin is a good basing point as there are numerous flights to most places, east and west. Plus we get some great storms to keep one entertained whilst waiting/deciding.

Alby! Ya made it here! Welcome-- you're an important participant in this thread.

That's exciting to think the season might start within the next two weeks. i noticed that there are two peaks in terms of intense landfalls in Australia: one in December, followed by a relative lull in January, followed by a second peak in February/March. Have you noticed that? Either way, I hadn't realized that the NT is more prone to early systems, although now that I think about it, it makes sense, given how deep in the tropics it is.

Re: chasing up there: yeah, all the research I've done tells me the Top End is almost impossible chase turf. As you point out, Darwin-- while not that prone to cyclone itself-- is a good midpoint between two cyclone-prone, more chaseable regions: Queensland S of Cairns and the Pilbara. I have to say, I do wish there were more towns in the Pilbara! I imagine that there's a good chance you'll end up riding out a Pilbara cyclone in the car-- in which case, you better pray it's not a Cat 5.

What makes the N Kimberley and N Queensland so impossible? Is it bad roads? Elevation?

[alby_14]

Gday Josh!

Lack of roads basically. In the Kimberley, aside from Wyndham and Kununurra, there arent any towns. Only remote cattle stations and Aboriginal communities. Wyndham and Kununurra are roughly 100km from the coast and there are no sealed roads anywhere near the coast. Not good if you want to be right there! If you want to witness a decaying TC over land, flooding and being isolated for a week go for it! But im guessing your an eye crossing the coast kinda guy

If you want to go north of Cairns, you may consider going as far as Port Douglas. Further north there is a river crossing at the Daintree River which requires the use of the local ferry. This is shut down during flooding and bad weather. The end of the bitumen is Cooktown, a small town with only 2000 people living there. The road there involves many low level river crossings. Again expect to be stuck for a while if you make the drive. Another limiting factor is that the road immediately north of Cairns hugs the mountains as they drop straight into the sea. Erosion and road damage would be a major consideration in deciding not to venture north of Cairns and becoming stuck.

[alby_14]

Josh may have posted this link on the first page and I may have missed it but ill post it anyway. The BoM release a tropical note bulletin every tuesday. Sometimes it seems that its just a cut and post job from one week to the next. Anyway here it is. http://reg.bom.gov.a.../tropnote.shtml

Also, and im not sure if im allowed to mention other forums here (mods just delete it if so and kick me up the arse), but we have a dedicated weather forum here in Darwin. When things hotten up there are some guys with a lot of local knowledge, including some who work for the BoM. http://www.northauschasers.com/forum/

[HurricaneJosh]

Hey, Steve-- thanks for all this great info!

Gday Josh!

Lack of roads basically. In the Kimberley, aside from Wyndham and Kununurra, there arent any towns. Only remote cattle stations and Aboriginal communities. Wyndham and Kununurra are roughly 100km from the coast and there are no sealed roads anywhere near the coast. Not good if you want to be right there! If you want to witness a decaying TC over land, flooding and being isolated for a week go for it! But im guessing your an eye crossing the coast kinda guy

Ha ha ha, correct!

If you want to go north of Cairns, you may consider going as far as Port Douglas. Further north there is a river crossing at the Daintree River which requires the use of the local ferry. This is shut down during flooding and bad weather. The end of the bitumen is Cooktown, a small town with only 2000 people living there. The road there involves many low level river crossings. Again expect to be stuck for a while if you make the drive. Another limiting factor is that the road immediately north of Cairns hugs the mountains as they drop straight into the sea. Erosion and road damage would be a major consideration in deciding not to venture north of Cairns and becoming stuck.

Wow-- the Cape York Peninsula sounds like one big nightmare-- worse than I even thought! I guess Lockhart River would be pretty-much out of the question, then?

P.S. I am surprised there are mountains on the Peninsula-- I'd pictured it flat and swampy, like Louisiana.

Josh may have posted this link on the first page and I may have missed it but ill post it anyway. The BoM release a tropical note bulletin every tuesday. Sometimes it seems that its just a cut and post job from one week to the next. Anyway here it is. http://reg.bom.gov.a.../tropnote.shtml

Also, and im not sure if im allowed to mention other forums here (mods just delete it if so and kick me up the arse), but we have a dedicated weather forum here in Darwin. When things hotten up there are some guys with a lot of local knowledge, including some who work for the BoM. http://www.northauschasers.com/forum/

Thanks for these great links.

I had not posted the weekly BoM bulletin, so thank you for pointing it out. It'll be interesting to see what they say over the coming two weeks.

Re: the NAC forum, it sounds really cool and I am going to join. I'll bet it's a hotbed of valubale info, and that's cool that BoM dudes post there, too. (Someone on WeatherZone had also mentioned it to me.)

P.S. It's fine to mention other forums here-- not a big deal.

[alby_14]

The QLD BoM have hinted that something may be stirring in the Coral Sea. GFS has been forecasting an area of low pressure developing for a few runs now. I think a broad area of low pressure will develop but I dont think we will see anything organised.

IDQ10810

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology

Brisbane

Tropical Cyclone 3-day outlook for The Coral Sea

Issued at 2:37pm EST on Friday the 19th of November 2010 and valid until end of

Monday

Existing cyclones:

Nil.

Potential cyclones:

An area of low pressure may develop over the northern Coral Sea region during

Monday.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone developing in the Eastern Region on:

Saturday: Very low

Sunday: Very low

Monday: Low

NOTE: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a

tropical cyclone in the Region for each day:

Very low: less than 5% Low: 5% - 20%,

Moderate: 20% - 50% High: Over 50%

The area of coverage for this outlook is the Coral Sea and Northern Tasman Sea

west of 160E.

Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at:

http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone

[alby_14]

Wow-- the Cape York Peninsula sounds like one big nightmare-- worse than I even thought! I guess Lockhart River would be pretty-much out of the question, then?

P.S. I am surprised there are mountains on the Peninsula-- I'd pictured it flat and swampy, like Louisiana.

Definitley not flat. Well at least as far as Aussie standards are concerned between Townsville and Lockhart River (a small aboriginal community with a few Government services). Mt Bellenden Ker (highest mountain in QLD) is only 50km from Cairns and is 1593m ASL with an average annual rainfall of over 8000mm! Its highest annual rainfall is over 12000mm from memory. Away to the west from the mountains on the east side of the Cape, which benefit from orographic rainfall thanks to the Great Dividing Range and the SE trades, the rain drops off and the country flattens. Typical wet/dry savannah country.

This google link will give you an idea of what the hills behind Cairns look like.

http://www.google.co...iw=1362&bih=555

[alby_14]

And if you want a good laugh, check out the online version of the NT News (Darwins paper).

http://www.ntnews.com.au/

[kwt]

ECM still hiniting at development down the line with a weak low forming by 192hrs but it stays pretty weak and flabby.

Still hopefully we get a few nice looking systems down under this season!

[Ed Lizard]

Does Australia get many TCs of non-tropical origin?

I'm a bit fuzzy on a basin without waves, and that whole Kelvin and Rossby thing.

[alby_14]

Does Australia get many TCs of non-tropical origin?

I'm a bit fuzzy on a basin without waves, and that whole Kelvin and Rossby thing.

The southern half of the east coast sees plenty of cold cored lows that spin up off the coast. These usually result from troughs and upper lows that develop over the inland before moving offshore, but not warm cored TC's. Usually the TC's that affect areas under the Tropic of Capricorn are born north of that line. Im not sure if any have developed south of there? I'll try and find some.

[alby_14]

A good summary of previous Australian cyclones can be found on this page. Data is very sketchy/lacking up until the 1960's unfortunately

http://www.australiasevereweather.com/cyclones/index.html

[alby_14]

Not exactly cyclone action, but for those that want to put a face to the 'nickname', this is me. I love chasing mud crabs, and love eating the bastards also! Once the Aussie cyclones start spinning, ill stop posting irrelevant stuff.

http://www.youtube.c...u/0/a4tzSKQq1T4

[isohume]

Not exactly cyclone action, but for those that want to put a face to the 'nickname', this is me. I love chasing mud crabs, and love eating the bastards also! Once the Aussie cyclones start spinning, ill stop posting irrelevant stuff.

http://www.youtube.c...u/0/a4tzSKQq1T4

Haha...cool soundtrack! 

Off topic as well, but man I sure dug Australia when I was in Queensland. My sister got married to a guy from Tully and we all went down for the wedding. Turned out a few years later he was gay, but that's a whole other story. Neat area and great beer. Victoria Bitter ftw!     

[alby_14]

Cheers Isohume! Tully once had the prestigious namesake as Australias wettest town! Owing to a few average years it has given it up to Innisfail I believe (Im probably wrong however). Beautiful part of the world with the rainforest covered hills behind and the lovely Hinchinbrook Is just off the coast! I am hoping to do a few walks there next dry season (June/July)

PS. VB... If your ever back here, I promise ill buy you a better beer than VB!

[isohume]

Cheers Isohume! Tully once had the prestigious namesake as Australias wettest town! Owing to a few average years it has given it up to Innisfail I believe (Im probably wrong however). Beautiful part of the world with the rainforest covered hills behind and the lovely Hinchinbrook Is just off the coast! I am hoping to do a few walks there next dry season (June/July)

PS. VB... If your ever back here, I promise ill buy you a better beer than VB!

Yeah...I loved the rainforest and the beaches. Great Barrier Reef was amazing too. Someone told me (after we were in the water) that once in a while large crocs will actually swim out there? Damn. We went skirfing too and saw some manta rays. You guys live in an amazing area.  

Hell yeah I'll take you up on that beer! Better than VB, eh? Whoa! 

 

[k***]

nothing like some mudcrab videos in the morning!

[MJW155]

And if you want a good laugh, check out the online version of the NT News (Darwins paper).

http://www.ntnews.com.au/

So many awesome articles, I can't stop reading.

Apparently someone has been stealing chooks.

POLICE are on the hunt for a chook thief.

Five chickens have been stolen from a property in Marlow Lagoon, Palmerston, in a string of late-night raids over the past month.

Superintendent Rob Burgoyne said the thief may be trying to start up a chicken-for-eggs operation.

[HurricaneJosh]

Not exactly cyclone action, but for those that want to put a face to the 'nickname', this is me. I love chasing mud crabs, and love eating the bastards also! Once the Aussie cyclones start spinning, ill stop posting irrelevant stuff.

http://www.youtube.c...u/0/a4tzSKQq1T4

That's a great video, Steve-- I actually watched the whole thing, beginning to end. I don't know a thing about crabbing so, it was really educational-- and it was cool to see the land and water around Darwin. (Honestly, though, I felt a bit sorry for those poor crabs.)

If I come to Darwin, would you take me on an expedition like that? I would dig that.

[HurricaneJosh]

P.S. The BoM continues to suggest a mild possibility of a low spinning up in the N Coral Sea over the next few days.

[alby_14]

Dont worry about the crabs Josh, they love chili!

The Navy NRL site have identified the above mentioned disturbance as Invest 94P. http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home2.cgi?YEAR=2011&MO=11&BASIN=SHEM&STORM_NAME=94P.INVEST&PROD=track_vis&PHOT=yes&ARCHIVE=active&NAV=tc&AGE=Latest&SIZE=Thumb&STYLE=tables&AID_DIR=/SATPRODUCTS/TC/tc09/SHEM/93W.INVEST/tpw/microvap&TYPE=ssmi

Wont threaten the QLD coast but might give New Caledonia a tickle on the way past. Encouraging nonetheless.

PS. Josh, if you or any other member, landed in Darwin and wanted to go fishing it would be on!

[k***]

this hemisphere is heating up...with fish

invest 96p in the vanuata/new cal region

and another in the SEIO...closest landmass is sumatra

[k***]

this would be like a cherry or something over here

[alby_14]

Wake up my snowy USA friends Our BoM are usually a bunch of boring, fence-sitting, now casters... To see them put out such a bullish bulletin (below) is BLOODY ENCOURAGING! GIDDYUP!

96P faltered as a fish wannabe, but 03S looks like it could reach TD status in the near future and has a moderate chance of reaching TC status in the WA area of responsibility during Friday . It is highly unlikely to cross the coastline but could impact the WA coast with rain and swell. Hey, its a start In the longer term GFS is hinting at a few low pressure scenarios around the NT/NW WA areas.

Weekly Tropical Climate Note

Issued on Tuesday 30 November 2010

La Niña persists in the Pacific

La Niña conditions have weakened slightly but remain firm across the tropical Pacific. Long-range models surveyed by the Bureau suggest that this La Niña event will persist through the southern hemisphere summer and into the first quarter of 2011.

During La Niña events, Tropical Cyclone occurrence for northern Australia is typically higher than normal during the cyclone season (November – April). See the Bureau’s 2010/11 Australian Tropical Cyclone season outlook for information about the current season outlook. Often, North Australia observes the onset of the summer monsoon before Christmas during La Niña years.

The 30-day Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) to 28th November was +16. Contributing pressure anomalies were -0.2 hPa at Darwin and +2.2 hPa at Tahiti. The monthly SOI for October was +18 and the 5-month running mean (centred on August) was +20.

All El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) indicators remain firmly at La Niña levels. Sub-surface temperatures along the equatorial Pacific are up to 4°C cooler than normal in the central and eastern part of the Pacific Ocean, while the western Pacific continues to warm. The upper ocean negative heat anomalies are about -2.5 °C at around 140 °W, with the central Pacific warming slightly in the last two weeks. The Maritime Continent region remains warmer than normal, with broad areas of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) more than 1 °C above the long-term average around northern Australia, and up to 3 °C above average off the northwest shelf of Western Australia.

See the Bureau's ENSO Wrap-Up which includes a compilation of ENSO computer model predictions.

Madden-Julian Oscillation event on the cards

Since the strong MJO event of early October, the signal has been mostly weak and its movement erratic. However, guidance surveyed by the Bureau suggests that this inactive MJO phase is about to end.

The majority of computer models surveyed are now hinting at the redevelopment of an MJO over the eastern Indian Ocean over the coming 2 weeks. If the scenario pans out, this will have far reaching implications on Australia’s weather during December.

Given this development scenario, it is likely that the potential for tropical cyclogenesis in the eastern Indian Ocean will increase significantly towards the second week of December, with the moderate-to-high risk extending eastwards during subsequent weeks. With eastward propagation of the MJO, northern Australia could experience enhanced rainfall during the second and third weeks of December.

If an active MJO was to enter Australian longitudes around the middle of December, as predicted by the majority of computer models, the probability of Australian Monsoon onset prior to Christmas in Darwin would be moderate to high.

Next update expected by 7 December | Product Code IDCKGEWOOO

[HurricaneJosh]

Wake up my snowy USA friends Our BoM are usually a bunch of boring, fence-sitting, now casters... To see them put out such a bullish bulletin (below) is BLOODY ENCOURAGING! GIDDYUP!

...

It's good to see that action might be on the horizon-- just in time for December.

[HurricaneJosh]

To everyone else--

December is a big month, when we see a rapid increase in the incidence of cyclones. In fact, December is the first of two STC (severe tropical cyclone) landfall maxima; a bit of a lull occurs in January, followed by a second max in February/March.

Some of Australia's most damaging cyclones have occurred in December-- like Joan 1975, a tremendous cyclone that raked Port Hedland, and of course the notorious Tracy 1974, that flattened Darwin.

[tmagan]

To everyone else--

December is a big month for Aussie cyclones, when we see a rapid increase in the incidence of cyclones. In fact, December is the first of two STC (severe tropical cyclone) landfall maxima; a bit of a lull occurs in January, followed by a second max in February/March. Some of Australia's most damaging cyclones have occurred in December-- like Joan 1975, a tremendous cyclone that rakes Port Hedland, and of course the notorious Tracy 1974, that flattened Darwin.

Trying to put a finger on why that would be the case. I guess with maximum solar insolation in late December/early January, that would lead to lower surface pressures over northern Australia and interrupt the inflow to any developing TC north of Australia.

[am19psu]

Trying to put a finger on why that would be the case. I guess with maximum solar insolation in late December/early January, that would lead to lower surface pressures over northern Australia and interrupt the inflow to any developing TC north of Australia.

Think monsoons...

[am19psu]

Phase 4 of the MJO was a complete bust in the SIO, but maybe the progression to Phase 5 will be better. Models are picking up on development in the Timor Sea and/or the Gulf of Carpentaria for Tuesday/Wednesday next week.