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Aussie (& S-Hemisphere) Cyclone Action 2010-2011


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P.S. Re: the Top End low... What are the chances of a "combo solution"-- i.e., moves WSW to become a significant cyclone, then turns and heads back toward land? :D

It's looking like another parallel tracker in the Euro. Here is 216. The thing at 40S is 97S, the NT low is near Exmouth, and the Coral Sea thing is near New Caledonia.

msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!216!Australia!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2011021400!!chart.gif

Keep in mind this is nothing like the new 12z GFS, which has no significant threats this week.

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It's looking like another parallel tracker in the Euro. Here is 216. The thing at 40S is 97S, the NT low is near Exmouth, and the Coral Sea thing is near New Caledonia.

Keep in mind this is nothing like the new 12z GFS, which has no significant threats this week.

OK, thanks. The Coral Sea thing looks nice, but a bit too far S-- I can't see it making it to Queensland as an interesting system.

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I keep almost writing "Bizinga"-- which sounds snappier and rolls off the tongue better.

Anyhoo, yeah, it looks like it's out over the Channel-- although I notice the JTWC keeps it hugging close to the coast now and is not so bullish as it was previously.

Re: 99S... Those cyclones that form near land, run parallel to the Pilbara coast, and eventually fish start to get so irritating after a while-- like their version of early-season EPAC cyclones.

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Re: 99S... Those cyclones that form near land, run parallel to the Pilbara coast, and eventually fish start to get so irritating after a while-- like their version of early-season EPAC cyclones.

More or less irritating than monsoon lows that get a max intensity of 45 kts after festering for 5 days?

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We are now under a cyclone watch

200mm+ falls around darwin region and more of the same to come next 24h

Low moving NW and could be over water this evening or tomorrow

Track Map

Cyclone advice

What a surprise! Or maybe not. I guess we knew this was brewing. You yourself mentioned it a couple of days ago.

So, what's the weather like for you right now? I see you're quite close to the low center.

post-19-0-33212200-1297738291.gif

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Hi Josh

Solid rain for most parts north of me the last18 hours e.g. 245mm at Dum In Marrie, with 70mm+ last 4 hours, Shoal Bay 259mm till 9am

We got 120+ for 5pm - 9am

Was a bit windy here this morning but has eased off as has the rain and sky is lighter

Doppler gives the best idea

I think this one already has a foot in the water and night time intensification will reveal all

Small system lurking around darwin will be interesting

Doppler radar

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Gettin real wet and gusty here! Airport has been getting 45kt gusts this afternoon, mainly associated with squalls coming in off the coast. Widespread 150-200mm last night here and a further widespread 50-100mm in the 7 hours since 9am.

Darwin is now under a cyclone warning with the usual media releases and advisories now starting to come into play. Shear is still causing the LLCC to be exposed. If this can slacken off and if this thing, possibly Carlos, can stay over water we may have a lil TC on our doorstep in a day or twos time :thumbsup:

post-1680-0-18638100-1297755129.jpg

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Latest advice and link to track map below

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 3 Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWINat 8:00 pm CST Tuesday 15 February 2011A Cyclone WARNING is now current for coastal areas from Daly River Mouth toPoint Stuart, including Darwin and the Tiwi Islands.A Cyclone WATCH is now current for coastal areas from Port Keats to Daly RiverMouth and Point Stuart to Goulburn Island .At 6:30 pm CST a Tropical Low was over land about 75 kilometres southwest ofDarwin and 70 kilometres west northwest of Batchelor and moving north northwestat 7 kilometres per hour. The low is expected to move into the Beagle Gulf andmay develop into a tropical cyclone during Wednesday.LOCALLY DAMAGING wind gusts up to 90 kilometres per hour are expected withsqually showers and storms in the northwest Darwin-Daly District and the TiwiIslands. GALES with gusts to 110 kilometres per hour are expected to develop between DalyRiver Mouth and Point Stuart, including Darwin and the Tiwi Islands, duringWednesday.DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 130 kilometres per hour may develop over theTiwi Islands late Thursday if the cyclone continues to intensify.HEAVY RAIN may cause widespread flooding in the northern Darwin-Daly District.The Territory Controller advises residents from Daly River Mouth to Point Stuartincluding the Tiwi Islands that now is the time to make final preparations toyour home shelter or identify which public emergency shelter to use.Residents of Darwin and the Rural Area are advised that if you DO NOT haveaccommodation constructed to the Building Code or are unsure of your presentaccommodation you should decide which public emergency shelter to use. Youshould now have your emergency kit complete and ready. DO NOT PROCEED TO PUBLICEMERGENCY SHELTERS UNTIL ADVISED TO DO SO.The Territory Controller advises communities under Cyclone Watch that now is thetime to put together your emergency kit, clear your yards and balconies, andcommence home shelter preparations.Details of Tropical Low at 6:30 pm CST:.Centre located near...... 12.9 degrees South 130.4 degrees East.Location accuracy........ within 55 kilometres.Recent movement.......... towards the north northwest at 7 kilometres per hour.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity.Central pressure......... 1000 hectoPascalsPlease ensure that neighbours have heard and understood this message,particularly new arrivals or those who may not fully understand English.

Track map 2000_150211

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Gettin real wet and gusty here! Airport has been getting 45kt gusts this afternoon, mainly associated with squalls coming in off the coast. Widespread 150-200mm last night here and a further widespread 50-100mm in the 7 hours since 9am.

Darwin is now under a cyclone warning with the usual media releases and advisories now starting to come into play. Shear is still causing the LLCC to be exposed. If this can slacken off and if this thing, possibly Carlos, can stay over water we may have a lil TC on our doorstep in a day or twos time :thumbsup:

Hey, Stephen-- how's it going? Nice to see you back here in time for the excitement. :) Nice gusts at the airport! Would be cool to have a cyclone so close to you guys-- and it looks like the track is anyone's guess!

Please keep us updated Re: the conditions there. It's nice to have our very own member right in Darwin. :sun:

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As ninox mentioned, there are actually two potential cyclones in the waters around Australia: one near Darwin, the other N of Exmouth. The JTWC has a Cyclone Formation Alert for each system.

Meanwhile, at the other end of the Indian Ocean, Cyclone Bingiza's remnants are hugging the W coast of Madagascar and-- since it's not really clearing land very much-- the forecasts for regeneration have become less bullish.

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Its interesting because the ECM is totally different to the GFS for example, with the first model taking it way west whilst the GFS takes it inland over far NW Aus.

ECM goes pretty crazy with development in the next 5-7 days its gotta be said with 3 systems in the eastern.part of the S.hemisphere region and another weak one near where Bingiza came from...

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How strong do you think 99S will get before it pushes back over land?

It's entirely a function of how long it can stay over water. The convection is so strong, I think it has a real good chance of RI if the shear dies down at all. My forecast brought it to U.S. Cat 1 before landfall Thursday, but like I said, it's not an easy forecast at all.

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It's entirely a function of how long it can stay over water. The convection is so strong, I think it has a real good chance of RI if the shear dies down at all. My forecast brought it to U.S. Cat 1 before landfall Thursday, but like I said, it's not an easy forecast at all.

Wow-- interesting! It seems like it's been meandering near the coast just on the land side for a while now. If it can just nudge over the line...

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I think this low will be memorable, maybe not extreme but referred to in years to come

night time intensification has been great last night and tonight

doppler over Bathurst Is was crazy before

Doppler

Nthn quads have been off the scale, once the Sthn ones come aboard over water should get good

Darwin has had extreme winds for a low for awhile now, especially on the coast

Orebound from Yasi fame recorded a 139kph gust at Nightcliff before

Hopefully darwin will exceed the 300mm for 24h by 9am

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