am19psu Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 P.S. Re: the Top End low... What are the chances of a "combo solution"-- i.e., moves WSW to become a significant cyclone, then turns and heads back toward land? It's looking like another parallel tracker in the Euro. Here is 216. The thing at 40S is 97S, the NT low is near Exmouth, and the Coral Sea thing is near New Caledonia. Keep in mind this is nothing like the new 12z GFS, which has no significant threats this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 14, 2011 Author Share Posted February 14, 2011 It's looking like another parallel tracker in the Euro. Here is 216. The thing at 40S is 97S, the NT low is near Exmouth, and the Coral Sea thing is near New Caledonia. Keep in mind this is nothing like the new 12z GFS, which has no significant threats this week. OK, thanks. The Coral Sea thing looks nice, but a bit too far S-- I can't see it making it to Queensland as an interesting system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 OK, thanks. The Coral Sea thing looks nice, but a bit too far S-- I can't see it making it to Queensland as an interesting system. Genesis of the Coral Sea thing is just offshore of QLD, then moves east towards New Caledonia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 14, 2011 Author Share Posted February 14, 2011 Genesis of the Coral Sea thing is just offshore of QLD, then moves east towards New Caledonia. Oops, I was thinking the other way. That's the danger of being lazy and only looking at one frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 14, 2011 Author Share Posted February 14, 2011 I can't find anything in the news, really, Re: Cyclone Bingiza's impact. Not surprising, really. It hit a region with only modest towns, and for the average Westerner, Madagascar might as well be on the planet Neptune. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 I can't find anything in the news, really, Re: Cyclone Bingiza's impact. Not surprising, really. It hit a region with only modest towns, and for the average Westerner, Madagascar might as well be on the planet Neptune. Their media outlets are totally lame http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7tVyg7msOKc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 14, 2011 Author Share Posted February 14, 2011 Their media outlets are totally lame lolz That is pretty lame. I've been in some rough-around-the-edges countries, and that's one of the shabbier newscasts I've seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted February 14, 2011 Share Posted February 14, 2011 I smell road trip. Go back a couple of days, another TC heads into cooler waters to the South and dies, for a while there it is TC city... Drive up the coast from Perth... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 bizinga looks to have emerged into the channel both those SEIO invests look pretty good too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 both those SEIO invests look pretty good too 99S is the one the Euro brings down the Kimberley/Pilbara coasts over the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 15, 2011 Author Share Posted February 15, 2011 I keep almost writing "Bizinga"-- which sounds snappier and rolls off the tongue better. Anyhoo, yeah, it looks like it's out over the Channel-- although I notice the JTWC keeps it hugging close to the coast now and is not so bullish as it was previously. Re: 99S... Those cyclones that form near land, run parallel to the Pilbara coast, and eventually fish start to get so irritating after a while-- like their version of early-season EPAC cyclones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Re: 99S... Those cyclones that form near land, run parallel to the Pilbara coast, and eventually fish start to get so irritating after a while-- like their version of early-season EPAC cyclones. More or less irritating than monsoon lows that get a max intensity of 45 kts after festering for 5 days? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 15, 2011 Author Share Posted February 15, 2011 More or less irritating than monsoon lows that get a max intensity of 45 kts after festering for 5 days? OK-- definitely not that annoying! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ninox33 Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 We are now under a cyclone watch 200mm+ falls around darwin region and more of the same to come next 24h Low moving NW and could be over water this evening or tomorrow Track Map Cyclone advice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 15, 2011 Author Share Posted February 15, 2011 We are now under a cyclone watch 200mm+ falls around darwin region and more of the same to come next 24h Low moving NW and could be over water this evening or tomorrow Track Map Cyclone advice What a surprise! Or maybe not. I guess we knew this was brewing. You yourself mentioned it a couple of days ago. So, what's the weather like for you right now? I see you're quite close to the low center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ninox33 Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Hi Josh Solid rain for most parts north of me the last18 hours e.g. 245mm at Dum In Marrie, with 70mm+ last 4 hours, Shoal Bay 259mm till 9am We got 120+ for 5pm - 9am Was a bit windy here this morning but has eased off as has the rain and sky is lighter Doppler gives the best idea I think this one already has a foot in the water and night time intensification will reveal all Small system lurking around darwin will be interesting Doppler radar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 nice velocity scan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 15, 2011 Author Share Posted February 15, 2011 Well... There's clearly a vigorous turning to the mess. I think we might have a cyclone soon! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alby_14 Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Gettin real wet and gusty here! Airport has been getting 45kt gusts this afternoon, mainly associated with squalls coming in off the coast. Widespread 150-200mm last night here and a further widespread 50-100mm in the 7 hours since 9am. Darwin is now under a cyclone warning with the usual media releases and advisories now starting to come into play. Shear is still causing the LLCC to be exposed. If this can slacken off and if this thing, possibly Carlos, can stay over water we may have a lil TC on our doorstep in a day or twos time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ninox33 Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 the race is on Alby If BOM is right we have Carlos in the Indian ocean tomorrow morning and Dianne tomorrow afternoon nw of darwin think our one will be a doozy <12h over water and its on BOM have a cyclone on or NW of darwin for 36h, even at Cat 1-2 that will be horrendous!!! BOM 4 day synoptic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ninox33 Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Latest advice and link to track map below TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 3 Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWINat 8:00 pm CST Tuesday 15 February 2011A Cyclone WARNING is now current for coastal areas from Daly River Mouth toPoint Stuart, including Darwin and the Tiwi Islands.A Cyclone WATCH is now current for coastal areas from Port Keats to Daly RiverMouth and Point Stuart to Goulburn Island .At 6:30 pm CST a Tropical Low was over land about 75 kilometres southwest ofDarwin and 70 kilometres west northwest of Batchelor and moving north northwestat 7 kilometres per hour. The low is expected to move into the Beagle Gulf andmay develop into a tropical cyclone during Wednesday.LOCALLY DAMAGING wind gusts up to 90 kilometres per hour are expected withsqually showers and storms in the northwest Darwin-Daly District and the TiwiIslands. GALES with gusts to 110 kilometres per hour are expected to develop between DalyRiver Mouth and Point Stuart, including Darwin and the Tiwi Islands, duringWednesday.DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 130 kilometres per hour may develop over theTiwi Islands late Thursday if the cyclone continues to intensify.HEAVY RAIN may cause widespread flooding in the northern Darwin-Daly District.The Territory Controller advises residents from Daly River Mouth to Point Stuartincluding the Tiwi Islands that now is the time to make final preparations toyour home shelter or identify which public emergency shelter to use.Residents of Darwin and the Rural Area are advised that if you DO NOT haveaccommodation constructed to the Building Code or are unsure of your presentaccommodation you should decide which public emergency shelter to use. Youshould now have your emergency kit complete and ready. DO NOT PROCEED TO PUBLICEMERGENCY SHELTERS UNTIL ADVISED TO DO SO.The Territory Controller advises communities under Cyclone Watch that now is thetime to put together your emergency kit, clear your yards and balconies, andcommence home shelter preparations.Details of Tropical Low at 6:30 pm CST:.Centre located near...... 12.9 degrees South 130.4 degrees East.Location accuracy........ within 55 kilometres.Recent movement.......... towards the north northwest at 7 kilometres per hour.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity.Central pressure......... 1000 hectoPascalsPlease ensure that neighbours have heard and understood this message,particularly new arrivals or those who may not fully understand English. Track map 2000_150211 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 These forecasts are really difficult. I just basically took a mental TVCN and am hoping for the best. The forecast I put out takes 97S southward parallel to the WA coast and brings 99S inland east of Wyndham. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 15, 2011 Author Share Posted February 15, 2011 Gettin real wet and gusty here! Airport has been getting 45kt gusts this afternoon, mainly associated with squalls coming in off the coast. Widespread 150-200mm last night here and a further widespread 50-100mm in the 7 hours since 9am. Darwin is now under a cyclone warning with the usual media releases and advisories now starting to come into play. Shear is still causing the LLCC to be exposed. If this can slacken off and if this thing, possibly Carlos, can stay over water we may have a lil TC on our doorstep in a day or twos time Hey, Stephen-- how's it going? Nice to see you back here in time for the excitement. Nice gusts at the airport! Would be cool to have a cyclone so close to you guys-- and it looks like the track is anyone's guess! Please keep us updated Re: the conditions there. It's nice to have our very own member right in Darwin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 97 is the one the Euro takes down South to an unhappy end over cold water, no? Plenty to watch... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 15, 2011 Author Share Posted February 15, 2011 As ninox mentioned, there are actually two potential cyclones in the waters around Australia: one near Darwin, the other N of Exmouth. The JTWC has a Cyclone Formation Alert for each system. Meanwhile, at the other end of the Indian Ocean, Cyclone Bingiza's remnants are hugging the W coast of Madagascar and-- since it's not really clearing land very much-- the forecasts for regeneration have become less bullish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kwt Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 Its interesting because the ECM is totally different to the GFS for example, with the first model taking it way west whilst the GFS takes it inland over far NW Aus. ECM goes pretty crazy with development in the next 5-7 days its gotta be said with 3 systems in the eastern.part of the S.hemisphere region and another weak one near where Bingiza came from... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 15, 2011 Author Share Posted February 15, 2011 These forecasts are really difficult. I just basically took a mental TVCN and am hoping for the best. The forecast I put out takes 97S southward parallel to the WA coast and brings 99S inland east of Wyndham. How strong do you think 99S will get before it pushes back over land? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 How strong do you think 99S will get before it pushes back over land? It's entirely a function of how long it can stay over water. The convection is so strong, I think it has a real good chance of RI if the shear dies down at all. My forecast brought it to U.S. Cat 1 before landfall Thursday, but like I said, it's not an easy forecast at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 15, 2011 Author Share Posted February 15, 2011 It's entirely a function of how long it can stay over water. The convection is so strong, I think it has a real good chance of RI if the shear dies down at all. My forecast brought it to U.S. Cat 1 before landfall Thursday, but like I said, it's not an easy forecast at all. Wow-- interesting! It seems like it's been meandering near the coast just on the land side for a while now. If it can just nudge over the line... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ninox33 Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 I think this low will be memorable, maybe not extreme but referred to in years to come night time intensification has been great last night and tonight doppler over Bathurst Is was crazy before Doppler Nthn quads have been off the scale, once the Sthn ones come aboard over water should get good Darwin has had extreme winds for a low for awhile now, especially on the coast Orebound from Yasi fame recorded a 139kph gust at Nightcliff before Hopefully darwin will exceed the 300mm for 24h by 9am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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