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Aussie (& S-Hemisphere) Cyclone Action 2010-2011


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I wonder what it's like in Madagascar-- and at the landfall region in particular. I really have no concept of how developed or underdeveloped it is. Like, do they have TV? Internet? Weather stations? I zoomed in as far as I could using Google satellite view, and I can see towns-- but the details are blurry.

I'd like to go there at some point-- for a cyclone, or just to see it. It's one of those places for which I haven't the slightest mental image. It draws a complete blank.

It's been called the 6th continent, has a variety of terrains, 20 million plus people, a quaint colonial capital city, and the sickest karst landscape ever.

800px-Antananarivosunset.jpg

439px-Tsingy_de_Bemaraha.jpg

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It's been called the 6th continent, has a variety of terrains, 20 million plus people, a quaint colonial capital city, and the sickest karst landscape ever.

Omg, that cityscape is gorgeous-- like a Third World San Francisco. Perhaps the photo was treated in a way that makes it look more magical-- but it really does evoke a special sort of mood. It inspires the imagination. I want to go.

P.S. I just learned yesterday that the population is over 20 million, and I was really surprised-- I didn't think it was that populated. Madagascar's population is almost the same as all of Australia's! Yeah, yeah-- I know Australia is very sparsely populated for the most part-- but still.

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It would be neat to watch the surge rush into the bay then get evacuated back out as the eye passes. This is like the southern hemisphere's answer to Tampa bay.

Yeah, totally! That's a good analogy. I would love to be in that bay-- to see that action. Dude, I'm doing it! Next cyclone, maybe. Work settles down a bit after Wednesday. :)

P.S. It looks like the center is coming in at the perfect angle to really funnel water way up into that bay.

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looks like ~85kts

Well... 100 kt does seem a bit generous, perhaps. But I'd say it's at least a solid Cat 2.

I went on the Meteo France site, and, man, it's just impossible to get any information out of it. The advisories don't even indicate the windspeed, and I can't find any technical discussions-- so unlike when we're dealing with Aussie cyclones, we don't even have data from the other agency to compare-- unless I'm just missing something.

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OK, wait, I finally found the RSMC Technical Bulletin on Bingiza, and as of 18Z, they put the intensity at 85 kt (10-min), which corresponds nicely with the JTWC's 100 kt (1-min)-- however, they put the pressure 10 mb higher-- at 958 mb.

The discussion:

INTENSITY OF BINGIZA HAS FLUCTUATED DURING THE DAY. INTENSITY HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY DECREASED IN RELATIONSHIP WITH A WEAKENING IN THE AFTERNOON (PROBABLY TEMPORARY) WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS, HEAVY RAIN SHOULD GET ON THE NORTH AND THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF MADAGASCAR. BINGIZA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL WITHIN MONDAY EARLY BETWEEN ANTALAHA AND TOAMASINA. OVER THIS COASTAL AREA, WINDS WILL PROGRESSIVILY INCREASE AND GUSTS SHOULD EXCEED 100 KM/H ON AND AFTER THIS AFTERNOON AND LOCALLY EXCEED 150 KM/H WITHIN NEXT NIGHT UP TO 80 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE AREA OF MASOALINA PENINSULA, ANTONGIL BAY AND SAINTE-MARIE ISLAND ARE ESPECIALLY THREATENED. IN RELATIONSHIP WITH UNCERTAINTY OF THE LANDFALL AREA MORE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS THAN THE ABOVE TARGETTED ONES SHOULD THEREFORE CONCERN BY THE STRONGEST WINDS. PEOPLE LIVING ON THE EASTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR ARE INVITED TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DANGEROUS SYSTEM. IN RELATIONSHIP WITH THE OVERLAND MADAGASCAR TRACK , WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY DECREASE NEAR THE RESIDUAL CIRCULATION CENTER BUT HEAVY RAIN ACTIVITY SHOULD STILL EXISTS UP TO 400KM TO 500 KM FROM THE CENTER. BINGIZA'S REMNANTS SHOULD COME BACK OVER SEA AT WEAKENED STAGE ON TUESDAY BETWEEN MAHAJO NGA AND MORONDAVA. IN RELATIONSHIP TO VERY GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS OVER MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, RE-INTENSIFICATION IS THEN EXPECTED.

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Well... 100 kt does seem a bit generous, perhaps. But I'd say it's at least a solid Cat 2.

I went on the Meteo France site, and, man, it's just impossible to get any information out of it. The advisories don't even indicate the windspeed, and I can't find any technical discussions-- so unlike when we're dealing with Aussie cyclones, we don't even have data from the other agency to compare-- unless I'm just missing something.

It just doesn't look like 100kt storm to me...i know its not very scientific, but...

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Cyclone Bingiza is just about to make landfall on the Masoalina Peninsula. The RSMC La Reunion's latest Technical Bulletin has the center very close to the coast as of 00Z, with an estimated intensity of 959 mb/85 kt (10-min)-- a low-end Cat 3 on our scale. The forecast warns residents of gust over ~80 kt near the center. The map below shows the current position (A - purple) and the 12-hr forecast position (red). Strong S winds ahead of the center will most certainly funnel water up into that bay.

The RSMC discussion:

INTENSITY OF BINGIZA HAS STILL FLUCTUATED FOR THE LAST HOURS. SATELLITE ECLIPSE BETWEEN 1900 AND 2200Z HAS FAILED TO MONITOR THE SYSTEM,
BUT AFTER A SLIGHTLY WEAKENING, IT SEEMS THAT BINGIZA IS REINTENSIFYING A LITTLE.
CI IS MAINTENED AT 5.5-.HEAVY RAIN IS GETTING ON THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF MADAGASCAR.
BINGIZA IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH MASOALINA PENINSULA WITHIN THE NEXT HOURS
AND THEN TO MAKE LANDFALL WITHIN MONDAY MORNING VERY CLOSE TO MANAMBOLOSY.
IN THE COMING HOURS, WIND GUSTS SHOULD EXCEED 100 KM/H WITHIN 150 KM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE AND MIGHT EXCEED 150 KM/H WITHIN 80 KM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER. THE AREA OF MASOALINA PENINSULA, ANTONGIL BAY AND SAINTE-MARIE ISLAND ARE ESPECIALLY THREATENED. CYCLONIC STURGE IN THE RANGE OF 1.00 TO 1.50 M IS EXPECTED BETWEEN MANAMBOLOSY AND ANTANAMBE.
PEOPLE LIVING ON THE EASTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR ARE INVITED TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE EVOLUTION OF THIS DANGEROUS SYSTEM. IN RELATIONSHIP WITH THE OVERLAND MADAGASCAR TRACK, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY DECREASE NEAR THE RESIDUAL CIRCULATION CENTER BUT HEAVY RAIN ACTIVITY SHOULD STILL EXISTS UP TO 300KM TO 400 KM FROM THE CENTER. BINGIZA'S REMNANTS ARE EXPECTED TO COME BACK OVER SEA AT WEAKENED STAGE ON TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY BETWEEN BESALAMPY AND MAINTIRANO. IN RELATIONSHIP TO GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS OVER MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, RE-INTENSIFICATION IS THEN EXPECTED.

post-19-0-64676200-1297648210.png

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So if I was chasing this cyclone, I'd want to be right in Mananara Avaratra-- a large-ish town right at the S entrance to the bay, near the open ocean. They're just S of the projected track, and therefore they'll be in the left-front quad and should get raked pretty good.

Nothing like armchair chasing when I'm up all night working! :D

post-19-0-73206200-1297649907.png

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As of 06Z, RSMC La Reunion has the center of the cyclone right over Helodrano Antongila Bay (green marker - 15.9S 49.8E), and about to make its second landfall just N of Manambolosy. Current intensity is 953 mb/80 kt (10-min) and a RMW of 27 km.

The discussion:

THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE BINGIZA HAS QUICKLY MADE LANDFALL ON THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE PENINSULA OF MASOALA, IT HAS COME BACK OVER SEAS ON THE ANTONGIL BAY. IT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARDS TOWARDS THE EASTERN COASTLINE OF MADAGASCAR AND IS GOING TO TO MAKE LANDFALL NORTH OF MANAMBOLASY. IN RELATIONSHIP WITH THE OVERLAND MADAGASCAR TRACK, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY DECREASE NEAR THE RESIDUAL CIRCULATION CENTER BUT HEAVY RAIN ACTIVITY SHOULD STILL EXISTS ON THE NORTHERN PART OF MALAGASY. BINGIZA'S REMNANTS ARE EXPECTED TO COME BACK OVER SEA OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL AT WEAKENED STAGE ON WEDNESDAY. IN RELATIONSHIP TO GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS OVER MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, RE-INTENSIFICATION IS THEN EXPECTED.

post-19-0-84492700-1297668270.png

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There's a couple things to watch back in Oz this morning:

  • The most boring will be 97S, another monsoon low that might or might not get its act together into a tropical cyclone before moving over cooler water. It will brush the coast but shouldn't make landfall.
  • A low pressure is forming north of Darwin. The Euro takes that low WSW and deepens it into a significant cyclone by the weekend. The more likely scenario turns it back over land and nothing happens, but at least there is potential here.
  • Also, by the weekend, the weak MJO pulse should help stir something up in the Coral Sea. Models haven't locked onto any one solution yet, but things are looking more favorable over there in about 5-7 days.

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Latest on Cyclone Bingiza: it's moving inland over Madagascar.

The 09Z JTWC package had the center making landfall (right at the coast a little N of Manambolosy: 15.9S 49.8E) at 06Z with winds of 85 kt (1-min) and a 64-kt radius of 25 nmi. (Note: The latest Navy/NRL intensity estimate is 967 mb/75 kt.) The JTWC discussion reads:

ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TC 13S REMAINS WELL-ORGANIZED WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE SYSTEM HAS MADE LANDFALL AT 14/06Z AFTER TRACKING ACROSS THE MASOALA PENINSULA AND SKIRTING ANTONGIL BAY. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 77 TO 102 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND FMEE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW.

Regneration to a hurricane is still expected in the Mozambique Channel, although the new forecast keeps it moving parallel to-- and just offshore of-- the W coast of Madagascar.

The latest Technical Bulletin from RSMC La Reunion-- which is more recent-- has the cyclone well inland, with winds of 50 kt (10-min) and weakening. This is reflected in the latest visible imagery:

post-19-0-74931300-1297689203.jpg

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There's a couple things to watch back in Oz this morning:

  • The most boring will be 97S, another monsoon low that might or might not get its act together into a tropical cyclone before moving over cooler water. It will brush the coast but shouldn't make landfall.
  • A low pressure is forming north of Darwin. The Euro takes that low WSW and deepens it into a significant cyclone by the weekend. The more likely scenario turns it back over land and nothing happens, but at least there is potential here.
  • Also, by the weekend, the weak MJO pulse should help stir something up in the Coral Sea. Models haven't locked onto any one solution yet, but things are looking more favorable over there in about 5-7 days.

Very cool. The Coral Sea thing sounds particularly interesting. Are the models hinting at a vague threat, even? I sigh thinking of those Euro runs that saw Yasi coming more than a week out. If only every cyclone could match the modeling so well...

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Very cool. The Coral Sea thing sounds particularly interesting. Are the models hinting at a vague threat, even? I sigh thinking of those Euro runs that saw Yasi coming more than a week out. If only every cyclone could match the modeling so well...

Yeah, the GFS has a weak system headed south of Townsville. The Euro takes that system eastward towards New Caledonia. Lots of uncertainty still.

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Yeah, the GFS has a weak system headed south of Townsville. The Euro takes that system eastward towards New Caledonia. Lots of uncertainty still.

P.S. Re: the Top End low... What are the chances of a "combo solution"-- i.e., moves WSW to become a significant cyclone, then turns and heads back toward land? :D

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