kwt Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 Wow-- seem a bit bullish! But I agree, it looks good. Yeah its abit agressive but looking at the latest images and the clear eye with very strong eyewalls thats closed plus plenty of time to strengthen yet...can't see why it won't at least peak at that strength and maybe get stronger before landfalling in the high 3/low 4 range IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 I think I agree with koldweather assessment. It looks like atmospheric conditions are plenty good, and it's a small system. Euro forecasts a strengthening tight cyclone before landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 I'm thinking about two things now based on posts in previous pages... Low OHC and the fact that most models are now atmosphere/ocean coupled. Always been a big believer that OHC/depth of warm water is over-rated when storms are moving over high SSTs with alacrity, hence Cat 4 hurricanes in the NW Gulf, but obviously it becomes significant for slower moving systems. I think it explains sparseness of clouds between bands. That said, looks better now than a few hours ago... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 12, 2011 Author Share Posted February 12, 2011 Wow-- it's really tightening up. That MW image is totally hawt-- thanks, battlebrick, for posting it. Looks like it'll be at least 100 kt (1-min) at landfall, for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 12, 2011 Author Share Posted February 12, 2011 Latest JTWC package puts the intensity at 85 kt (1-min). They bring it up to 95 kt, although the intensity for 14/06Z (with the center at the coast) is only 85 kt-- perhaps due to land interaction. Seems a bit conservative, given recent trends. Here's the JTWC's discussion. They mention strengthening up to landfall: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (BINGIZA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 420 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 121716Z 91H SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING FEEDING INTO A 28 NM CONCENTRIC EYE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 85 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 77 TO 90 KNOTS FROM PGTW, KNES, AND FMEE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (>28 DEGREES CELSIUS) AND AN ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL, ASSOCIATED WITH A TRANSITORY MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH, HAS ALLOWED FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. TC 13S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A WEAK STEERING RIDGE BUILDING TO THE SOUTH. TC BINGIZA IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING IN A GENERALLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD DIRECTION AND CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR NEAR TAU 36. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF MADAGASCAR, BUT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR REMNANTS TO RE-DEVELOP IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL IN THE LATER TAUS. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT; THEREFORE THIS FORECAST IS CLOSE TO MODEL CONSENSUS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 12, 2011 Author Share Posted February 12, 2011 After some thought, I decided to rebrand this thread slightly, so as to accommodate the occasionally interesting S-Hemisphere cyclone that occurs outside of the Aussie region. Therefore, we can now talk about Cyclone Bingiza here without guilt. It's officially on-topic. Yes, I am a total nerd for even giving a crap about this-- but, hey, I good thread hygiene. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 I support the title change. also, note how landfall will be right near that peninsula that always gets raked...remember the old discussion we had about big landfalls? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 13, 2011 Author Share Posted February 13, 2011 I support the title change. Gracias. also, note how landfall will be right near that peninsula that always gets raked...remember the old discussion we had about big landfalls? Refresh my memory, would you? P.S. The landfall also looks to be very close to Île Sainte-Marie, a long, skinny island with a population of ~16K. They'll get raked pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted February 13, 2011 Share Posted February 13, 2011 Refresh my memory, would you? P.S. The landfall also looks to be very close to Île Sainte-Marie, a long, skinny island with a population of ~16K. They'll get raked pretty good. When we last discussed Madagascar, I had noted that that pensinsula is a monster magnet...this is going to be one of a string of majors that have hit that area this decade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 13, 2011 Author Share Posted February 13, 2011 When we last discussed Madagascar, I had noted that that pensinsula is a monster magnet...this is going to be one of a string of majors that have hit that area this decade. OK, yeah-- it's coming back to me. And, yeah, when I did some research, it did look like the NE portion of the island gets raked a lot. Since we've officially incorporated this extra basin into this thread, perhaps I'll post some of my research about it midweek-- to give some more context. I took a brief interest in the region last year-- really researched it for a couple of weeks to get a rough handle on the general activity. P.S. I'm not too wild about Meteo France (Reunion), the forecasting agency for this region. Unless I'm missing something, the discussions/forecasts aren't very detailed, and the forecast map is shown in this superfluous Flash gadget that allows you to zoom in and out. [internet usability rant]It sounds cool, but 1) you can't access the forecast-map gadget on non-Flash devices (like the iPad), 2) you can't just save it as an image (for reposting), and 3) it takes long to load. Cyclone warnings should be conveyed via lowest-common-denominator formats like what the NHC, BoM, and JTWC use: simple image files that anyone on any computer can see quickly and easily.[/internet usability rant] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted February 13, 2011 Share Posted February 13, 2011 tiny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 13, 2011 Author Share Posted February 13, 2011 tiny 'Tis. The wind radii, from the JTWC: 64 kt: 15 nmi 50 kt: 30 nmi 34 kt: 70 nmi That's very small-- even by microcane standards. The gale radius in particular catches the attention, showing that the whole system is tiny-- not just the core. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted February 13, 2011 Share Posted February 13, 2011 'Tis. The wind radii, from the JTWC: 64 kt: 15 nmi 50 kt: 30 nmi 34 kt: 70 nmi That's very small-- even by microcane standards. The gale radius in particular catches the attention, showing that the whole system is tiny-- not just the core. It didn't start out looking like a micro but just kind of morphed into one. Interesting stuff. This is why all basins deserve attention. Cool tropical stuff happens year round if you aren't an IMBYer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted February 13, 2011 Share Posted February 13, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 13, 2011 Author Share Posted February 13, 2011 It didn't start out looking like a micro but just kind of morphed into one. Interesting stuff. This is why all basins deserve attention. Cool tropical stuff happens year round if you aren't an IMBYer Yeah, agreed. I follow four basins now (NATL, EPAC, AUS, and now SWIO), so I feel like I've reached my limit. Of course, I continue to resist your favorite basin. Looks good-- although I'm wondering if it looks a tad less robust than the earlier one that battlebrick posted. Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 13, 2011 Author Share Posted February 13, 2011 The latest JTWC package has Bingiza up to 948 mb/100 kt. Still looking pretty tight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 13, 2011 Author Share Posted February 13, 2011 Latest MV and visible images. I think it looks good, not OMG-amazing!!1! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 13, 2011 Author Share Posted February 13, 2011 Interesting tidbit from the JTWC discussion, which explains what we're seeing in the MW imagery-- i.e., why the core doesn't look as tight at the moment: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 130239Z SSMIS IMAGE DEPICT A WELL-ORGANIZED SYSTEM GOING THROUGH AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE. THE INNER EYE HAS CONTRACTED OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS FROM 25NM TO 15NM EYE WHILE AN OUTER EYEWALL APPEARS TO BE FORMING WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION AND RECENT MOTION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 100 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 90 TO 102 KNOTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted February 13, 2011 Share Posted February 13, 2011 I think part of the reason battlebricks looked so much better was because it was a 91 instead of 89ghz shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ninox33 Posted February 13, 2011 Share Posted February 13, 2011 I know this is the African thread but what the heck Finally something to get us NT mob excited Early days but nice and wet with a potential low possible??? lol Living between WA and Qld you'd understand, Tracey was an anomaly lol Sat image 1200 CST Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 13, 2011 Author Share Posted February 13, 2011 I know this is the African thread but what the heck Finally something to get us NT mob excited Early days but nice and wet with a potential low possible??? lol Living between WA and Qld you'd understand, Tracey was an anomaly lol Sat image 1200 CST I wondered if our visiting Aussies would resent seeing their thread being hijacked for African cyclone discussions for a few days. Consider Bingiza a mere halftime show. We'll get back to the main attraction-- Aussie activity-- soon enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted February 13, 2011 Share Posted February 13, 2011 ERC did it's number on the inner eyewall. Still time for the outer eyewall to tighten some, but not much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 13, 2011 Author Share Posted February 13, 2011 ERC did it's number on the inner eyewall. Still time for the outer eyewall to tighten some, but not much. Yeah-- not as tight as before. But it's moving slowly-- only ~5 kt-- so it still has a good 12-18 hrs, I'd say. It's still a nice-looking cyclone-- and I'd venture to say this latest MW presentation is a bit healthier than the one I posted earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 13, 2011 Author Share Posted February 13, 2011 'Tis. The wind radii, from the JTWC: 64 kt: 15 nmi 50 kt: 30 nmi 34 kt: 70 nmi That's very small-- even by microcane standards. The gale radius in particular catches the attention, showing that the whole system is tiny-- not just the core. Wind radii have increased a bit-- essentially doubled since yesterday-- which I suppose is not surprising, given the structural changes: 64 kt: 35 nmi 50 kt: 55 nmi 34 kt: 130 nmi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
battlebrick Posted February 13, 2011 Share Posted February 13, 2011 Weird structure, probably EWRC. Also, you're welcome Josh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 13, 2011 Author Share Posted February 13, 2011 Weird structure, probably EWRC. Bingo. See JTWC discussion (a few posts above). That's exactly what happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 13, 2011 Author Share Posted February 13, 2011 Current shots of Bingiza. It looks like it's recovering from the ERC that occurred earlier, and I think the MW shots are perhaps a bit better. kush will say the visible presentation has a "cinnabun" look, but I think it looks like a robust (if small) cyclone: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 13, 2011 Author Share Posted February 13, 2011 In other news... The S Hemisphere is quite fertile this evening, with one cyclone and four active Invests! Hard to keep track of them all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 13, 2011 Author Share Posted February 13, 2011 The JTWC's 21Z package is out. Intensity is still 100 kt, and the center should cross the coast very near Helodrano Antongila Bay in ~12 hrs. (There's a large town near the entrance to the Bay-- Mananara Avaratra.) Interestingly, that won't be the end of it: the cyclone's going to restrengthen in the Mozambique Channel and slap Madagascar on the azz after knocking it in the head! As per the JTWC's discussion: AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK WESTWARD OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF MADAGASCAR IT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY (<30 KNOTS). HOWEVER, BASED ON THE FACT THAT TC BINGIZA REACHED A HIGHER PEAK INTENSITY THEN ORIGINALLY FORECASTED AND DUE TO RECENT MODEL DEVELOPMENT, REMNANT ENERGY FROM THE TC IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL AND RE-DEVELOP WITHIN 72 HOURS. HIGHLY FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (>30 DEGREES CELSIUS) AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES WILL ALLOW FOR SIGNIFICANT RE-INTENSIFICATION WITHIN THE CHANNEL BEFORE TC 13S RECURVES SOUTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A TRANSITORY MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 13, 2011 Author Share Posted February 13, 2011 I wonder what it's like in Madagascar-- and at the landfall region in particular. I really have no concept of how developed or underdeveloped it is. Like, do they have TV? Internet? Weather stations? I zoomed in as far as I could using Google satellite view, and I can see towns-- but the details are blurry. I'd like to go there at some point-- for a cyclone, or just to see it. It's one of those places for which I haven't the slightest mental image. It draws a complete blank. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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