HurricaneJosh Posted February 11, 2011 Author Share Posted February 11, 2011 look at that monster heat content Wow. Lame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 Maybe I was getting confused with the climate models? It's entirely likely I screwed up. Is there a difference between the Euro/UK couplings and the CFS coupling? Maybe I was thinking of that? Well, the CFS, as well as the Euro/Uk seasonal/climate runs all use atmospheric models that are directly coupled to dynamical ocean models. I honestly don't know the details of each respective model (and by that, I mean the seasonal/climate versions). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 The entertainment value makes it worth the money. Tropical version of the HRRR. Not that it is a rapid refresh model that runs some version of the RUC off radar data or anything, just general entertainment value. I won't make any comments re: HWRF other than to say it's still a work in progress. There is a new team lead in place and I think they will eventually benefit all the great work being done under the HFIP paradigm. I'm not really privy to the model developments, but there is a ton of great research being done on the data assimilation (initialization) side of things. Waaaaaay OT, but the HRRR is actually also WRF (not the RUC model)....though it still relies on DFI-initialized RUC fields until the actual RR becomes operational this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 getting better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 12, 2011 Author Share Posted February 12, 2011 And better. Looks like a nice cyclone. The JTWC has it at 982 mb/55 kt (1-min) right now, and the forecast intensity trend suggests it will be approaching Cat 2 (USA) at landfall in Madagascar within the next two days: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 12, 2011 Author Share Posted February 12, 2011 Interestingly, Meteo France (Reunion) is predicting Cyclone Bingiza to be an "Intense Tropical Cyclone" at landfall in NE Madagascar. As per the chart below (from Wikipedia), an "Intense Tropical Cyclone" in this basin = winds of at least 90 kt (10-min), or a major hurricane on our scale. Kind of interesting. I looked at a map of Madagascar and the expected landfall region is dotted with towns, but no major population centers, as far as I can tell. (By the way, Madagascar is way more populated than I realized; it has over 20 million inhabitants-- almost equal to Australia!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 Road trip? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 12, 2011 Author Share Posted February 12, 2011 Road trip? Nah-- not a big enough cyclone and I'm still nutty with work through midweek. This is more for armchair watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 12, 2011 Author Share Posted February 12, 2011 Looking good. The Navy/NRL has it up to 974 mb/65 kt (1-min) now-- a 'cane: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 looks skeletal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 looks skeletal You think that is dry air? I pretty much assume anything with an eye is 65 knots or above, but between the banding features, you really don't see much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 12, 2011 Author Share Posted February 12, 2011 looks skeletal Really? I think it's a very nice system. It's lean but it's very symmetric, and all of the components-- including nice banding features and an eyewall-- are in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 Really? I think it's a very nice system. It's lean but it's very symmetric, and all of the components-- including nice banding features and an eyewall-- are in place. It's got a nice skeleton (structure) but needs meat on the bones (more convection). It's not going to win the CDO pageant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 12, 2011 Author Share Posted February 12, 2011 It's got a nice skeleton (structure) but needs meat on the bones (more convection). It's not going to win the CDO pageant. I think it's kinda hawt. I like tight and lean. Let's see what happens with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 I think it's kinda hawt. I like tight and lean. Let's see what happens with it. ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 12, 2011 Author Share Posted February 12, 2011 Deep, technical analysis in the Aussie thread today! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 I'm with kush on this. I'm not particularly impressed with this system. Deep convection impresses me more than bandiness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 Deep, technical analysis in the Aussie thread today! Movies, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 it actually doesn't look too bad on IR...still hope it fills out a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 Out of season and South of 10ºN, but I see hints of circulation in the Northern IO... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 Out of season and South of 10ºN, but I see hints of circulation in the Northern IO... It's 91B on NRL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 It's 91B on NRL I should visit NRL more often then... Edit to add- I saw no mention on JTWC and was feeling really proud of my observational abilities... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 12, 2011 Author Share Posted February 12, 2011 I'm with kush on this. I'm not particularly impressed with this system. Deep convection impresses me more than bandiness. But deep convection in itself isn't a sign of great organization. An open wave can have mega-cold cloud tops. I mean, I'm not turned on by a naked swirl, either, but this is not that. It has convection where it needs it. Movies, Very cool. You can also see that Tropical Lows WNW of Australia-- which will probably not earn a name after all. it actually doesn't look too bad on IR...still hope it fills out a bit Nice. Man, the cyclones really tend to be very small in the S Hemisphere, it seems like. (Yasi was of course an exception.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 I should visit NRL more often then... Edit to add- I saw no mention on JTWC and was feeling really proud of my observational abilities... it was looking a bit better yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 But deep convection in itself isn't a sign of great organization. An open wave can have mega-cold cloud tops. I mean, I'm not turned on by a naked swirl, either, but this is not that. It has convection where it needs it. I just mean in terms of potential, I'd rather have a storm with deep, intense convection than one with bandiness. The cold cloud tops indicate a lot of thermodynamic potential energy for deepening through latent heat release. You can improve organization through convection and WISHE, but it's tougher to increase convection through organization, if that makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 12, 2011 Author Share Posted February 12, 2011 I just mean in terms of potential, I'd rather have a storm with deep, intense convection than one with bandiness. The cold cloud tops indicate a lot of thermodynamic potential energy for deepening through latent heat release. You can improve organization through convection and WISHE, but it's tougher to increase convection through organization, if that makes sense. OK, I gotcha. That makes sense, actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 skeletoness aside, this is looking better than i expected Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kwt Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 Well its looking very good right now, I think 100kts probably is about right now looking at the way this one has evolved, the inner core looks very solid now and totally closed, it sorta looks on at least the Microwave imagery its undergoing RI... Expecting a 115-120kts type landfall now based on what I'm seeing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 12, 2011 Author Share Posted February 12, 2011 Well its looking very good right now, I think 100kts probably is about right now looking at the way this one has evolved, the inner core looks very solid now and totally closed, it sorta looks on at least the Microwave imagery its undergoing RI... Expecting a 115-120kts type landfall now based on what I'm seeing. Wow-- seem a bit bullish! But I agree, it looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
battlebrick Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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