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Aussie (& S-Hemisphere) Cyclone Action 2010-2011


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Maybe I was getting confused with the climate models? It's entirely likely I screwed up. Is there a difference between the Euro/UK couplings and the CFS coupling? Maybe I was thinking of that?

Well, the CFS, as well as the Euro/Uk seasonal/climate runs all use atmospheric models that are directly coupled to dynamical ocean models. I honestly don't know the details of each respective model (and by that, I mean the seasonal/climate versions).

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The entertainment value makes it worth the money.

Tropical version of the HRRR. Not that it is a rapid refresh model that runs some version of the RUC off radar data or anything, just general entertainment value.

I won't make any comments re: HWRF other than to say it's still a work in progress. There is a new team lead in place and I think they will eventually benefit all the great work being done under the HFIP paradigm. I'm not really privy to the model developments, but there is a ton of great research being done on the data assimilation (initialization) side of things.

Waaaaaay OT, but the HRRR is actually also WRF (not the RUC model)....though it still relies on DFI-initialized RUC fields until the actual RR becomes operational this year.

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Interestingly, Meteo France (Reunion) is predicting Cyclone Bingiza to be an "Intense Tropical Cyclone" at landfall in NE Madagascar.

As per the chart below (from Wikipedia), an "Intense Tropical Cyclone" in this basin = winds of at least 90 kt (10-min), or a major hurricane on our scale. Kind of interesting.

I looked at a map of Madagascar and the expected landfall region is dotted with towns, but no major population centers, as far as I can tell. (By the way, Madagascar is way more populated than I realized; it has over 20 million inhabitants-- almost equal to Australia!)

post-19-0-80646000-1297517433.png

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Really? I think it's a very nice system. It's lean but it's very symmetric, and all of the components-- including nice banding features and an eyewall-- are in place.

It's got a nice skeleton (structure) but needs meat on the bones (more convection).

It's not going to win the CDO pageant.

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I'm with kush on this. I'm not particularly impressed with this system. Deep convection impresses me more than bandiness.

But deep convection in itself isn't a sign of great organization. An open wave can have mega-cold cloud tops. I mean, I'm not turned on by a naked swirl, either, but this is not that. It has convection where it needs it.

Movies,

Very cool. You can also see that Tropical Lows WNW of Australia-- which will probably not earn a name after all.

it actually doesn't look too bad on IR...still hope it fills out a bit

Nice.

Man, the cyclones really tend to be very small in the S Hemisphere, it seems like. (Yasi was of course an exception.)

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But deep convection in itself isn't a sign of great organization. An open wave can have mega-cold cloud tops. I mean, I'm not turned on by a naked swirl, either, but this is not that. It has convection where it needs it.

I just mean in terms of potential, I'd rather have a storm with deep, intense convection than one with bandiness. The cold cloud tops indicate a lot of thermodynamic potential energy for deepening through latent heat release. You can improve organization through convection and WISHE, but it's tougher to increase convection through organization, if that makes sense.

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I just mean in terms of potential, I'd rather have a storm with deep, intense convection than one with bandiness. The cold cloud tops indicate a lot of thermodynamic potential energy for deepening through latent heat release. You can improve organization through convection and WISHE, but it's tougher to increase convection through organization, if that makes sense.

OK, I gotcha. That makes sense, actually.

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Well its looking very good right now, I think 100kts probably is about right now looking at the way this one has evolved, the inner core looks very solid now and totally closed, it sorta looks on at least the Microwave imagery its undergoing RI...

Expecting a 115-120kts type landfall now based on what I'm seeing.

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Well its looking very good right now, I think 100kts probably is about right now looking at the way this one has evolved, the inner core looks very solid now and totally closed, it sorta looks on at least the Microwave imagery its undergoing RI...

Expecting a 115-120kts type landfall now based on what I'm seeing.

Wow-- seem a bit bullish! But I agree, it looks good.

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