am19psu Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 So... What's next after all that excitement? Nothing on the immediate horizon. The BoM outlooks for all three territories show nothing for the next few days, and the Fiji outlooks is similarly dead. I guess we can all use a small rest! Yeah, I don't see anything for the next week. The monsoon trough will set up early next week in the Timor Sea and E Indian Ocean, but there are no strong cyclogenesis signals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 4, 2011 Author Share Posted February 4, 2011 Yeah, I don't see anything for the next week. The monsoon trough will set up early next week in the Timor Sea and E Indian Ocean, but there are no strong cyclogenesis signals. I'm still amazed how well Yasi was modeled so far out. You spotted it and brought it up in this here thread a good week before it came ashore. Just wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Zaka 45/989...high latitude fishie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 7, 2011 Author Share Posted February 7, 2011 Zaka 45/989...high latitude fishie And yet another transitioning low header for NZ. 'Tis the season for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 7, 2011 Author Share Posted February 7, 2011 In other news, the waters closer to Australia are showing signs of reactivating-- although there are no imminent threats to the mainland: For Western Australia: A low is forecast to develop off the northwest Kimberley coast during Tuesday. The low is expected to move towards the west southwest and may develop into a tropical cyclone late Wednesday but more likely on Thursday, by which time it is expected to be well away from the WA mainland. For the Northern Territory: There are no significant tropical lows in the region. A weak monsoon trough is reforming over the Arafura Sea during the next few days, and there is potential for a weak low pressure system to form in the eastern Arafura Sea late in the week. The Coral Sea-- as I'm sure everyone will be happy to hear-- is quiet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ninox33 Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 yes Josh we are getting our weather back in the NT Nice steady rain the last few hours Small rotation over Darwin or to the west, fits with the BOM 3 day outlook Monsoon trough seems to developing, now Yasi has disconnected, had lots of NW flow and precipitation yesterday Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWINat 2:15 pm CST Monday 7 February 2011valid until the end of Thursday. Existing Cyclones in the Northern Region and Gulf of Carpentaria:Nil.Potential Cyclones:There are no significant tropical lows in the region. A weak monsoon trough isreforming over the Arafura Sea during the next few days, and there is potentialfor a weak low pressure system to form in the eastern Arafura Sea late in theweek. Likelihood of a tropical cyclone being in the region on:Tuesday: Very Low.Wednesday: Very Low.Thursday: Very Low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 8, 2011 Author Share Posted February 8, 2011 Nothing of great interesting today. The headlines from the BoM: In the Western region, that Kimberley low should move WSW and develop into a cyclone-- however, it looks to be a sure fish. In the Northern region, a weak low may develop out of the monsoon trough in the E Arafura Sea later in the week. In Queensland, a trough may bring some rain to the far-N Cape York Peninsula. The JTWC shows no suspect areas. Blah. It's just as good, I suppose. I am totally, completely nuts at work until 15 Feb-- so I'd actually like it to stay quiet until then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 9, 2011 Author Share Posted February 9, 2011 For those interested in Aussie cyclones historically.... check this out.... not quite up to date.... the BoM shows much of the rest (note this is not official but its not bad). http://www.windworke...qldcyclones.htm Hope this clears up any discussion re cyclones hitting as far south as Brisbane. Thanks, boomer, for the cool link! What do you think of this site? http://www.australiasevereweather.com/cyclones/ I also find this one extremely helpful, as it compiles all of the official BoM and JTWC data into once place, with nice track charts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 9, 2011 Author Share Posted February 9, 2011 Main news today: a weak low way N of Port Hedland could spin up into a cyclone over the next day or so as it treads WSW into the open Indian Ocean. (This having been said, the BoM must not think very much of this feature, since it's not even depicted on the cyclone map.) There's also a chance for a weak low to form in the Gulf of Carpentaria late in the week. Still kind of blah since Yasi. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Main news today: a weak low way N of Port Hedland could spin up into a cyclone over the next day or so as it treads WSW into the open Indian Ocean. (This having been said, the BoM must not think very much of this feature, since it's not even depicted on the cyclone map.) There's also a chance for a weak low to form in the Gulf of Carpentaria late in the week. Still kind of blah since Yasi. That monsoon low (96S) is going to be a huge waste of my time. At best, it will get to 45 kts. At worst, it will never consolidate. In addition to the GoC low you're talking about, there could be another monsoon low off the Kimberley over the weekend. JOY! If anything cool is going to happen, it will be in the Gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 9, 2011 Author Share Posted February 9, 2011 That monsoon low (96S) is going to be a huge waste of my time. At best, it will get to 45 kts. At worst, it will never consolidate. In addition to the GoC low you're talking about, there could be another monsoon low off the Kimberley over the weekend. JOY! If anything cool is going to happen, it will be in the Gulf. <yawn> I guess it can't be action-packed all the time. It would be greedy to expect some hawtness right after Yasi. I guess I'm just kind of wanting something cuz after early next week I can chase again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 Say hello to Bingiza...looks like we'll have our first real threat to Madagascar this weekend. GFS advertises a fairly intense landfall EC fishes it...maybe a brush with reunion? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 10, 2011 Author Share Posted February 10, 2011 Interesting. JTWC brings it up to 85 kt as it brushes near the Madagascar coast-- although with all that meandering early in the forecast period, I'm sure it's a low-confidence forecast. By the way, for anyone who's interested, here's the cyclone warming center for this region (SW Indian Ocean): http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/La_Reunion/meteoreunion2/ (Click the Suivi Cyclonique tab.) Sort of off topic, I guess, but something to pass the time as the Aussie waters stay dead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 Yeah, what it really comes down to is how long can it stay over warm water without upwelling. The Euro and UKMet are dynamic coupled ocean-atmosphere models, but I don't know if even they can handle the upwelling from a stationary TC all that well. I'd be hesitant to buy off on the high end of the intensity forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 Interesting. JTWC brings it up to 85 kt as it brushes near the Madagascar coast-- although with all that meandering early in the forecast period, I'm sure it's a low-confidence forecast. By the way, for anyone who's interested, here's the cyclone warming center for this region (SW Indian Ocean): http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/La_Reunion/meteoreunion2/ (Click the Suivi Cyclonique tab.) Sort of off topic, I guess, but something to pass the time as the Aussie waters stay dead. I contemplated starting a thread for the rest of the Indian ocean but there's just not enough action to justify it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 10, 2011 Author Share Posted February 10, 2011 Yeah, what it really comes down to is how long can it stay over warm water without upwelling. The Euro and UKMet are dynamic coupled ocean-atmosphere models, but I don't know if even they can handle the upwelling from a stationary TC all that well. I'd be hesitant to buy off on the high end of the intensity forecasts. Yeah, it looks like it's hardly going to move for a few days! I contemplated starting a thread for the rest of the Indian ocean but there's just not enough action to justify it. Gotcha. I'm cool either way, so whatever you like... A new thread couldn't hurt-- but posting here is fine, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 10, 2011 Author Share Posted February 10, 2011 BTW... like the US us weather watchers on the east coast we do not take a huge amount of notice of what is happening in the Indian Ocean. Partly as there is virtually nothing to hit (sad Nascar mentality and sorry Broome and Port Hedland et al) and that also it is so far away. What we are really interested is the MJO and its movements back into the Coral Sea. Yasi's ripping of sst's is now over and there is some convergence near Fiji and moderate potential in the Gulf of Carpenteria. We watch and wait. Already four cyclones with three crossings and at least two months to go.... Last week was huge... we really do not need more but the MJO says maybe. On that, sometimes when you are genuinely exposed enough is enough....so enough, cat 3 is nothing (in comparison threat or direct), it's the more intense that bother! It's understandable that you'd find the Indian Ocean action less "mediagenic"-- but I do like to follow the action over there. They've had some very dramatic landfalls in recent years, like Vance 1999 and George 2007. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 10, 2011 Author Share Posted February 10, 2011 Don't take it the wrong way. it is isolated, and in some places beautiful country (especially the Kimberley)... but for the most part it's harsh an hard to love. Yeah, the Lonely Planet travel guide doesn't paint a very flattering picture of Port Hedland. In fact, it sounded almost critical of the town-- suggesting it was a place that people go to make money (via mining interests) and really nothing else. I'll see for myself soon enough, as I will most certainly come to Australia in the next year, and when I do, I will drive across the entire cyclone country-- from Exmouth to the Kimberley, up to Darwin, around the shores of the Gulf of Carpentaria, and then the E coast of Queensland! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 10, 2011 Author Share Posted February 10, 2011 Do it in the early wet. Otherwise you will drown. Do it later and you will burn to death. I don't mind the heat. I spend my summers in the Southern Californian desert. Bring it on! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 10, 2011 Author Share Posted February 10, 2011 Re: Cyclone Bingiza... The latest JTWC warning brings it ashore in NE Madagascar by Day 4 with winds of 85 kt. Kinda interestin'. The microwave is nothing to write home about. (No, it's not an Aussie cyclone, but it's S Hemisphere and it's Indian Ocean-- so it's something to pass the time for now.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 upwelling like a mofo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 11, 2011 Author Share Posted February 11, 2011 The Tropical Low far WNW of Exmouth will continue moving WSW into the open Indian Ocean, and the BoM predicts a Cat 1 (AUS) cyclone-- i.e, a moderate TS. At the other end of the Indian Ocean, Cyclone Bingiza continues to meander aimlessly and shows no signs yet of imminent strengthening-- however, the JTWC still brings a 'cane ashore on the E coast of Madagascar in three days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ninox33 Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 you're fast josh Looks like Carlos will be brief Track Map My link Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 11, 2011 Author Share Posted February 11, 2011 you're fast josh Well, I try to stay on top of things around here. Each morning when I get into the office, I do a quick tropical briefing. (I'm in Eastern Europe right now, so that's well before anyone in the USA wakes up.) Looks like Carlos will be brief Yeah-- it's going to be a flash in the pan. By the way, the JTWC has upgraded it to Tropical Cyclone 14S, with winds of 35 kt (1-min). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 Yeah, what it really comes down to is how long can it stay over warm water without upwelling. The Euro and UKMet are dynamic coupled ocean-atmosphere models, but I don't know if even they can handle the upwelling from a stationary TC all that well. I'd be hesitant to buy off on the high end of the intensity forecasts. I'm not sure this is exactly true, as I don't think any of the operational globals are fully coupled to actual ocean models. The operational Euro is coupled to a wave model, however, but not to a full ocean model (at least for their 10 day operational forecasts). I've only glanced through their logs of upgrades and I'm going off mostly in-house discussions here.....so if I'm incorrect or you have other information, please feel free to share. [i'm sure their monthly / seasonal forecasts are coupled, however]. Also, the OP UK Unified model isn't run in coupled mode either....from their website: "Coupling — processes which are not thought to have a significant impact on weather prediction timescales such as deep ocean circulation, atmospheric chemistry and the carbon cycle are not currently modelled. For example, while climate projections are typically run from coupled ocean-atmosphere models, the current NWP configurations use a fixed SST from the OSTIA analysis system." There have been rumblings/discussions here about running the GFS couple, but I'm not sure if that is going to happen anytime soon.....but at least we run the HWRF model coupled! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 I'm not sure this is exactly true, as I don't think any of the operational globals are fully coupled to actual ocean models. The operational Euro is coupled to a wave model, however, but not to a full ocean model (at least for their 10 day operational forecasts). I've only glanced through their logs of upgrades and I'm going off mostly in-house discussions here.....so if I'm incorrect or you have other information, please feel free to share. [i'm sure their monthly / seasonal forecasts are coupled, however]. Also, the OP UK Unified model isn't run in coupled mode either....from their website: "Coupling — processes which are not thought to have a significant impact on weather prediction timescales such as deep ocean circulation, atmospheric chemistry and the carbon cycle are not currently modelled. For example, while climate projections are typically run from coupled ocean-atmosphere models, the current NWP configurations use a fixed SST from the OSTIA analysis system." There have been rumblings/discussions here about running the GFS couple, but I'm not sure if that is going to happen anytime soon.....but at least we run the HWRF model coupled! Maybe I was getting confused with the climate models? It's entirely likely I screwed up. Is there a difference between the Euro/UK couplings and the CFS coupling? Maybe I was thinking of that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 but at least we run the HWRF model coupled! That's probably the biggest NWP failure of the last 20 years. NCEP does a lot of great things. That wasn't one of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 the HWRF is the future Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 the HWRF is the future The entertainment value makes it worth the money. Tropical version of the HRRR. Not that it is a rapid refresh model that runs some version of the RUC off radar data or anything, just general entertainment value. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 look at that monster heat content Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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