Ed Lizard Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 maybe i was a bit too optimistic about the rapidity of the eyewall formation...looks like it still has a ways to go before it can totally pinch off and get a nice ring. Semi-OT, best eye formation I ever saw was on a long (multi-day) loop of Hurricane Gilbert. Saw it on TV once, maybe on the TV show 'Nova' on PBS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Semi-OT, best eye formation I ever saw was on a long (multi-day) loop of Hurricane Gilbert. Saw it on TV once, maybe on the TV show 'Nova' on PBS. better than STY Keith on guam's 88D? http://il.youtube.com/watch?v=CZYj22o7n7s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 30, 2011 Author Share Posted January 30, 2011 Eyewall porn-- woo hoo! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Eyewall porn-- woo hoo! had you seen that before? it's one of my absolute favorites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 30, 2011 Author Share Posted January 30, 2011 D*mm-- that Keith loop is so hawt. Pretty close to perfect. What was the intensity during that sequence? Back on topic, I don't think the microwave of Yasi looks half bad. No, it's not closed off, but overall, that's a nice- looking system, given its age. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 30, 2011 Author Share Posted January 30, 2011 had you seen that before? it's one of my absolute favorites. Maybe once-- but I didn't pay attention. This time I really watched it, and it's total gold. Thanks for sharing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 What was the intensity during that sequence? 140kts <900 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 That showed an already existing typhoon move into radar range. I mean, from a tropical storm to a hurricane, with bands wrapping around and forming the eye, which then tightened... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Morning, sunshine... 3 images since sunup, and looks better on each one... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 ^ trying hard to fully close off that eyewall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 stupid annoying pinwheel cinnabun stable air nonsense Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aslkahuna Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 1 small complaint, only 1 well developed outflow channel. I want a second one towards the South Pole. With that zonal windflow pattern poleward of the cyclone, what you are likely to see is a strong eastward outflow channel develop rather than a southward one. It will still do the job of evacuating the upper sections of the storm. Steve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AussieStormGirl Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDQ65002.shtml Looks like it's going to be a bumpy ride.....it will be intesting to see if this forecast track changes???? Anthony seemed to take a sudden turn south...I'm wondering if this one will do the same.....bit of a worry for Townsville at the moment.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AussieStormGirl Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Hi Everyone Can you please give me some info/opions? Apparently all models are showing that this cyclone will hit around the Townsville area? We are being told it won't go anywhere north of Townsville however the watch does extend alot futher north. With all your knowledge and years of experience in observing these storms are any of you under the opinion that the models could alter before the cyclone crosses the coast? We are also being told that people 500kms on either side of the eye of the cyclone will have damaging winds. Surely this can't be right. Is it really that much of a worry? Thanks for sharing your knowledge/thoughts... Cheers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 31, 2011 Author Share Posted January 31, 2011 Wow-- this is developing into a very serious situation. The striking thing is the almost-alarming agreement between the JTWC, the BoM, and the models, Re: the landfall point and intensity. The JTWC brings it to the coast S of Cairns a few hours before 00Z 03 Feb. The 00Z 02 Feb fix (the final before landfall) shows 115 kt (1-min)-- a Cat 4 on our scale. The trend suggests it will continue to strengthen up to landfall. The BoM has it coming ashore at 18Z 02 Feb in almost the exact same place-- around the town of Ingham-- with winds of 105 kt (10-min), which converts to ~120 kt (1-min). (This point is not shown on the forecast map below-- only in the Technical Bulletin.) So the JTWC and BoM are in agreement: a Cat 4 (USA) coming ashore halfway between Cairns and Townsville. Wow. By the way, a Cyclone Watch is already up for a large section of the Queensland coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 31, 2011 Author Share Posted January 31, 2011 Hi Everyone Can you please give me some info/opions? Apparently all models are showing that this cyclone will hit around the Townsville area? We are being told it won't go anywhere north of Townsville however the watch does extend alot futher north. With all your knowledge and years of experience in observing these storms are any of you under the opinion that the models could alter before the cyclone crosses the coast? We are also being told that people 500kms on either side of the eye of the cyclone will have damaging winds. Surely this can't be right. Is it really that much of a worry? Thanks for sharing your knowledge/thoughts... Cheers Howdy-- First off, I strongly suggest you listen to your Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) Re: the track and the extent of damaging winds. They are the authority in your region, and they know best! (A good secondary source would be the USA's Joint Typhoon Warning Center-- but your primary source should be the BoM.) Now that I've gotten that out of the way... Whoever's telling you these things is incorrect. The BoM's forecast track brings it ashore near Ingham, which is N of Townsville-- so whoever said that it won't come ashore N of Townsville is disagreeing with the BoM. Re: the extent of damaging winds, that sounds a bit large to me. It's possible you can have gales extending that far out, but certainly not hurricane-force winds. Also note that a cyclone's wind field is not a perfect circle: damaging winds will extend much further to the left (S) of the track than to the right (N). This asymmetry is even more pronounced in fast-moving cyclones, and it looks like Yasi will be moving very fast when it crosses the coast. At any rate, the BoM's advices (and maps) will tell you how far out the damaging winds extend. Again, make sure to listen to the BoM-- especially if this one becomes as dangerous as expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AussieStormGirl Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Howdy-- First off, I strongly suggest you listen to your Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) Re: the track and the extent of damaging winds. They are the authority in your region, and they know best! (A good secondary source would be the USA's Joint Typhoon Warning Center-- but your primary source should be the BoM.) Now that I've gotten that out of the way... Whoever's telling you these things is incorrect. The BoM's forecast track brings it ashore near Ingham, which is N of Townsville-- so whoever said that it won't come ashore N of Townsville is disagreeing with the BoM. Re: the extent of damaging winds, that sounds a bit large to me. It's possible you can have gales extending that far out, but certainly not hurricane-force winds. Also note that a cyclone's wind field is not a perfect circle: damaging winds will extend much further to the left (S) of the track than to the right (N). This asymmetry is even more pronounced in fast-moving cyclones, and it looks like Yasi will be moving very fast when it crosses the coast. At any rate, the BoM's advices (and maps) will tell you how far out the damaging winds extend. Again, make sure to listen to the BoM-- especially if this one becomes as dangerous as expected. Hi Thanks for this info. I think the issue may be the info that the media is giving out. Not sure how they are getting it wrong as I'm sure that BoM would be sending out updated media alerts. One radio station reported tonight that it is going to be downgraded to a Cat 1 before crossing the coast....now that is scary - maybe they were reading an old Anthony media alert........not good. Not one media station (that I have seen so far) has mentioned Ingham - It's all Townsville direct hit??? Can you see why I get confused?? I will keep getting updates from the BoM. I live a little north of Ingham (well about 150kms) so I think I'll be right. I'll keep checking this site as well to see what you guys have to say (but also updates from BoM). Thanks again for the info. I think I will stay put - I was going to go to Townsville to check her out but I'm starting to think it may be safer to stay home and keep out of trouble! Thanks for clarifying everything for me! Cheers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Howdy-- First off, I strongly suggest you listen to your Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) Re: the track and the extent of damaging winds. They are the authority in your region, and they know best! (A good secondary source would be the USA's Joint Typhoon Warning Center-- but your primary source should be the BoM.) Now that I've gotten that out of the way... Whoever's telling you these things is incorrect. The BoM's forecast track brings it ashore near Ingham, which is N of Townsville-- so whoever said that it won't come ashore N of Townsville is disagreeing with the BoM. Re: the extent of damaging winds, that sounds a bit large to me. It's possible you can have gales extending that far out, but certainly not hurricane-force winds. Also note that a cyclone's wind field is not a perfect circle: damaging winds will extend much further to the left (S) of the track than to the right (N). This asymmetry is even more pronounced in fast-moving cyclones, and it looks like Yasi will be moving very fast when it crosses the coast. At any rate, the BoM's advices (and maps) will tell you how far out the damaging winds extend. Again, make sure to listen to the BoM-- especially if this one becomes as dangerous as expected. Josh, have you ever chased down there? Im impressed that you have the anatomy of where the strongest winds and surge are and such memorized, considering everything in the southern hemisphere is backwards Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 31, 2011 Author Share Posted January 31, 2011 Hi Thanks for this info. I think the issue may be the info that the media is giving out. Not sure how they are getting it wrong as I'm sure that BoM would be sending out updated media alerts. One radio station reported tonight that it is going to be downgraded to a Cat 1 before crossing the coast....now that is scary - maybe they were reading an old Anthony media alert........not good. Not one media station (that I have seen so far) has mentioned Ingham - It's all Townsville direct hit??? Can you see why I get confused?? I will keep getting updates from the BoM. I live a little north of Ingham (well about 150kms) so I think I'll be right. I'll keep checking this site as well to see what you guys have to say (but also updates from BoM). Thanks again for the info. I think I will stay put - I was going to go to Townsville to check her out but I'm starting to think it may be safer to stay home and keep out of trouble! Thanks for clarifying everything for me! Cheers No problem. That is completely insane that one station reported it might be downgraded to a Cat 1 before crossing the coast. Are you sure they were talking about Yasi? If so, they should be taken off the air, as that's just incredibly irresponsible to be giving out incorrect info when such a dangerous cyclone is coming. The media might be playing up Townsville because the mainstream media (in any country) always wants a dramatic story, and it's more dramatic to talk about a direct hit on a major town, I guess. For the record, the BoM did not specifically mention Ingham, but their 60-hr forecast point has the cyclone's center crossing the coast just about there: http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/wrap_fwo.pl?IDQ20018.txt Stay safe! I've chased a few hurricanes myself (that's what we call them over here), and I would handle this one with care. P.S. Out of curiosity, what town are you in? Josh, have you ever chased down there? Im impressed that you have the anatomy of where the strongest winds and surge are and such memorized, considering everything in the southern hemisphere is backwards Dude, I was soooooo wanting to chase this one, but I'm too far away and have too much work. Grrrr. I am completely pissed about it. <sigh> It would have been my first chase down there. P.S. I might be in NYC in a few weeks. Let's finally get together!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Yes! We might have a full NYC GTG-- we have a poll going on there and looks like most people want it to be in Manhattan. You know which I wanted to chase down there? Monica-- the one which was one of the most intense ones ever. I dont remember how strong that one was at landfall but it had one of the most beautiful radar presentations Ive ever seen. That new NASA sat is going to let us measure the true intensities of these things out in the middle of the ocean, so no more agonizing over estimated Dvoraks or anything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Wow, this beast was a 5 at second landfall-- and better yet, little structural damage and no fatalities It would have been awesome to chase this: http://en.wikipedia..../Cyclone_Monica Severe Tropical Cyclone Monica was the most intense tropical cyclone, in terms of maximum sustained winds, on record to impact Australia. The 17th storm of the 2005–06 Australian region cyclone season, Monica originated from an area of low pressure off the coast of Papua New Guinea on 16 April. The storm quickly developed into a Category 1 cyclone the next day, at which time it was given the name Monica. Traveling towards the west, the storm intensified into a severe tropical cyclone before making landfall in Far North Queensland, near the Lockhart River, on 19 April. After moving over land, convection associated with the storm quickly became disorganized. On 20 April, Monica emerged into the Gulf of Carpentaria and began to re-intensify. Over the following few days, deep convection formed around a 37 km (23 mi) wide eye. Early on 22 April, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) assessed Monica to have attained Category 5 status, on the Australian cyclone intensity scale. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) also upgraded Monica to a Category 5 equivalent cyclone, on the Saffir–Simpson Hurricane Scale. The storm attained its peak intensity the following day with winds of 250 km/h (155 km/h 10-minute winds) and a barometric pressure of 916 mbar (hPa; 27.05 inHg). On 24 April, Monica made landfall about 35 km (22 mi) west of Maningrida, at the same intensity. Rapid weakening took place as the storm moved over land. Less than 24 hours after landfall, the storm had weakened to a tropical low. The remnants of the former-Category 5 cyclone persisted until 28 April over northern Australia. In contrast to the extreme intensity of the cyclone, relatively little structural damage resulted from it. No injuries were reported to have occurred during the storm's existence and losses were estimated to be A$6.6 million ($5.1 million USD). However, severe environmental damage took place. In the Northern Territory, an area about 7,000 km2 (4,300 mi2) was defoliated by Monica's high wind gusts. In response to the large loss of forested area, it was stated that it would take several hundred years for the area to reflourish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 31, 2011 Author Share Posted January 31, 2011 Yes! We might have a full NYC GTG-- we have a poll going on there and looks like most people want it to be in Manhattan. Well, if it's some winter-weather-type thing, count me out. I'll fall asleep if it's a gathering for snow weenies to yap about snow! You know which I wanted to chase down there? Monica-- the one which was one of the most intense ones ever. I dont remember how strong that one was at landfall but it had one of the most beautiful radar presentations Ive ever seen. That new NASA sat is going to let us measure the true intensities of these things out in the middle of the ocean, so no agonizing over estimated Dvoraks or anything Monica was not really chaseable, however. It hit empty islands and extremely remote, swampy, jungly areas with no towns. And that's what makes Yasi special: for an Aussie cyclone, it will be very chaseable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Well, if it's some winter-weather-type thing, count me out. I'll fall asleep if it's a gathering for snow weenies to yap about snow! Monica was not really chaseable, however. It hit empty islands and extremely remote, swampy, jungly areas with no towns. And that's what makes Yasi special: for an Aussie cyclone, it will be very chaseable. I was wondering why there was little structural damage with it. I have no clue what the geography of that part of Australia is like-- I guess, they dont have any roads going up there either? It's probably a good thing it hit a remote area, because it would have caused a great deal of damage in a populated town. Yasi would have been a great one to chase though. I cant wait until hurricane season. I LOVE winter weather, but it starts to get old after awhile. BTW on a side note, did you know they defamed your favorite hurricane, Hurricane Charley? Drug dealers use it as a nickname for a new drug which is like meth and which is being sold in stores as a "bath salt." Meth-like side effects have been reported already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 31, 2011 Author Share Posted January 31, 2011 Hey, guys-- Since I think this is going to be a big weather story, I made a new thread just for Cyclone Yasi: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?/topic/11810-cyclone-yasi/page__pid__402511#entry402511 Please move the discussion about Yasi to that thread-- thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AussieStormGirl Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 No problem. That is completely insane that one station reported it might be downgraded to a Cat 1 before crossing the coast. Are you sure they were talking about Yasi? If so, they should be taken off the air, as that's just incredibly irresponsible to be giving out incorrect info when such a dangerous cyclone is coming. The media might be playing up Townsville because the mainstream media (in any country) always wants a dramatic story, and it's more dramatic to talk about a direct hit on a major town, I guess. For the record, the BoM did not specifically mention Ingham, but their 60-hr forecast point has the cyclone's center crossing the coast just about there: http://www.bom.gov.a...pl?IDQ20018.txt Stay safe! I've chased a few hurricanes myself (that's what we call them over here), and I would handle this one with care. P.S. Out of curiosity, what town are you in? Dude, I was soooooo wanting to chase this one, but I'm too far away and have too much work. Grrrr. I am completely pissed about it. <sigh> It would have been my first chase down there. P.S. I might be in NYC in a few weeks. Let's finally get together!! Hey Josh I am just out side of Innisfail. TC Larry went though this way when I lived in Townsville, now I have moved up here they are going more towards Townsville.....I can't take a break.... The government has now started sending out text warnings to everyone with a mobile phone.....maybe they are aware of the confusion the media is causing. Residents in low areas of Townsville are also being told to evacuate before tomorrow night.....lets hope people listen as people still seem to be saying she will go south of Townsville........I hope people listen as although Yasi is exciting I don't want to see anyone getting hurt. I can't believe you guys would travel all the way to Aus to chase cyclones.....that's fantastic..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 31, 2011 Author Share Posted January 31, 2011 Hey Josh I am just out side of Innisfail. TC Larry went though this way when I lived in Townsville, now I have moved up here they are going more towards Townsville.....I can't take a break.... The government has now started sending out text warnings to everyone with a mobile phone.....maybe they are aware of the confusion the media is causing. Residents in low areas of Townsville are also being told to evacuate before tomorrow night.....lets hope people listen as people still seem to be saying she will go south of Townsville........I hope people listen as although Yasi is exciting I don't want to see anyone getting hurt. I can't believe you guys would travel all the way to Aus to chase cyclones.....that's fantastic..... Well, you might be near the direct-hit zone, so you really need to follow this. Chasing hurricanes and cyclones is a big passion for me-- so I'm cool to travel long distances for them. I've created a new thread for discussion Re: Yasi: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?/topic/11810-cyclone-yasi/page__pid__402511#entry402511. See you there! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 The signal is very weak and has a low probability of occurring, but there is a chance we could dual cyclones about the equator in the IO Thursday. Two upper level anticyclones have formed near 90E, one at 10N and one at 10S. If you believe the MJO is going to pop out in P6/7/8 in 10-15 days, then it's probably close to P4 right now (even though the signal is weak). Again, low chance of it happening, but something to keep an eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ninox33 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 I was wondering why there was little structural damage with it. I have no clue what the geography of that part of Australia is like-- I guess, they dont have any roads going up there either? It's probably a good thing it hit a remote area, because it would have caused a great deal of damage in a populated town. Yes Monica would have been quite incredible if she had got to what we call "Hells Gates", the small island bound gulf NE of Darwin Intensification could have occurred and a Cat 3+ near Darwin would have been interesting The north of Oz is pretty barren with minimal infrastructure outside main towns, access in the wet is minimal or nil If thinking of chasing look to the west COAST (still very isolated but reasonable access) or Qld Otherwise Darwin is rather good late October through to early December, we get a few storms Great you guys have a thread about us cause all we do is b**ch about how boring the dry season is lol America? Where's that lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 4, 2011 Author Share Posted February 4, 2011 So... What's next after all that excitement? Nothing on the immediate horizon. The BoM outlooks for all three territories show nothing for the next few days, and the Fiji outlooks is similarly dead. I guess we can all use a small rest! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.