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Aussie (& S-Hemisphere) Cyclone Action 2010-2011


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So Josh, got your tickets yet?:guitar:

:(

See above. I actually considered it, but I can't. I am just crazy-swamped with work right now, and stuck in Eastern Europe. Getting from here to Australia is a spectacular pain in the azz-- over 30 hours of traveling-- not including the 18-hr drive from Brisbane to the landfall zone. So we're talking two solid days to travel and get situated. Ugh. :D I'm bummed, because I think this is going to be a Grade-A, red-meat chase subject. Grrr.

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SATCON from 14z was already 67 kts. I had a Cat 1 forecast for tomorrow. That has a decent chance of busting.

So what could go wrong under this setup? It has fuel. It has light(ish) shear. No land interaction or vania-like cockblocker to interfere. It seems to be organizing faster than forecast.

These models suck, but absent the regular chip ensemble craziness nothing is really predicting anything but a climatological-like ramp-up.

temp3.png

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So what could go wrong under this setup? It has fuel. It has light(ish) shear. No land interaction or vania-like cockblocker to interfere. It seems to be organizing faster than forecast.

No dry air around that I can see, either, which is what made Anthony boring. I'd really like to know what the STIPS RI probs are.

I'm actually surprised the CHIPS ensembles aren't more bullish than, considering the warm SSTs and low shear. Usually, that's when they'll blow up.

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No dry air around that I can see, either, which is what made Anthony boring. I'd really like to know what the STIPS RI probs are.

I'm actually surprised the CHIPS ensembles aren't more bullish than, considering the warm SSTs and low shear. Usually, that's when they'll blow up.

Okay so I'm reading about SH STIPS now...garbage in, garbage out?

However, when SH STIPS is run in real-time, the NOGAPS model forecasts are used to create the predictors along the JTWC tropical cyclone track forecast. Therefore, errors in both the NOGAPS forecast fields and the JTWC track forecast represent additional sources of SH STIPS intensity forecast errors not accounted for in the developmental data.

Or maybe the glass is half-full? :pepsi:

SH STIPS is an improvement over other individual model intensity guidance methods in this basin. The statistics from both the dependent developmental data and from independent verification during July 2005 to June 2008 indicate that the model provides forecasts superior to combined climatology and persistence (SH ST5D). These performance statistics suggest that the SH STIPS model is one of the better models available for making tropical cyclone intensity forecasts in the southern hemisphere

http://www.bom.gov.au/amm/docs/2009/knaff2.pdf

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So what's the intensity right now? Fiji says 45 kt (10-min), the Navy site says 55 kt (1-min). Those two values agree pretty well and suggest a robust TS. You guys think it's a 'cane?

That microwave image looks like a 'cane, for sure. That's some great structure at this stage!

T numbers are around 4, maybe getting closer to 4.5. I think it's easily 70kts. With all that intense convection and the strengthening trend you have to think it's not having a problem mixing down strong winds.

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I've been hesitating to call them canes...it sucks that this basin really doesn't have a term that helps us distinguish the 65kt threshold.

They do, actually! Once it hits 65 kt (10-min) it's called a "Severe Tropical Cyclone". "Severe" to them = "hurricane". That is also the start of their Cat 3.

Of course, their threshold is a tad higher than ours, since we use 65 kt (1-min) and they use 65-kt (10-min).

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They do, actually! Once it hits 65 kt (10-min) it's called a "Severe Tropical Cyclone". "Severe" to them = "hurricane". That is also the start of their Cat 3.

Of course, their threshold is a tad higher than ours, since we use 65 kt (1-min) and they use 65-kt (10-min).

Well, yeah....severe tropical cyclone doesn't cut it for me. The NIO is like that too and I hate that set of terminology.

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The BOM does issue 'hurricane force wind' warnings at sea.

The WMO should have a grand conference where everything is unified, IMHO. Maybe not "typhoon" versus "cyclone" versus 'hurricane', people have their own names for that, but a standardized numeric scale and standard definitions, 1 minute or ten minute, etc.

IMHO.

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The BOM does issue 'hurricane force wind' warnings at sea.

Because of the beaufort scale, not because they call them something reasonable like hurricane/

The WMO should have a grand conference where everything is unified, IMHO. Maybe not "typhoon" versus "cyclone" versus 'hurricane', people have their own names for that, but a standardized numeric scale and standard definitions, 1 minute or ten minute, etc.

You know how much math I have learned throughout the years by having to do the conversions? I reckon it raised my quantitative score on the GRE by at least 40 points. :P

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Hush, you. :D

Fiji also agrees with JTWC. I guess this sort of wide consensus makes sense, given that the models are in tight agreement as well. The new JTWC warning is essentially a carbon copy of the previous one, bringing a Cat 3 (USA) ashore between Cairns and Townsville. It looks like the cyclone will be moving pretty briskly as it nears the coast.

Hi HurricaneJosh

I hope your right! I am getting very excited.....I will be reading everyone's comments today to see what Yasi is going to do........fingers crossed it will go along the same path as Larry so I don't have to travel far.

Just heard on the media that it will hit on approx Thurs as a cat 3 prob a cat 4 with wind gusts over 200kms.

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Hi HurricaneJosh

I hope your right! I am getting very excited.....I will be reading everyone's comments today to see what Yasi is going to do........fingers crossed it will go along the same path as Larry so I don't have to travel far.

Just heard on the media that it will hit on approx Thurs as a cat 3 prob a cat 4 with wind gusts over 200kms.

Have you chased any other cyclones?

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The euro sweet spot looks to have four population centers.

From N-S:

Townsville has 181k people and is the largest metro along that whole stretch of coast

Ayr has 8k people

Home Hill (not labeled) has ~3k people

Bowen has 7500 people and is on a peninsula with ocean on 3 sides :unsure:

post-22-0-37692100-1296423749.png

Check out the way those bays line up....the storm surge would be insane for a strike coming in at the modeled angle.

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Have you chased any other cyclones?

Hi

No! This will be my first.....I'm not chasing it as such - just hoping it heads up my way....well I will go down as far south as Townsville but anything south of Townsville pretty much rules me out......that's why I have been reading this site to see where you all think Yasi may end up heading.....most people here are looking at a Central Queensland crossing which is a little depessing...

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Hi

No! This will be my first.....I'm not chasing it as such - just hoping it heads up my way....well I will go down as far south as Townsville but anything south of Townsville pretty much rules me out......that's why I have been reading this site to see where you all think Yasi may end up heading.....most people here are looking at a Central Queensland crossing which is a little depessing...

I'd be careful what I wished for if I were you. :)

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Just got around to looking at the 12z Euro. Man, that is an epic hit if it happens as modeled.

Yeah-- if it happens as modeled and one of those larger towns-- like Cairns or Townsville-- gets a direct hit, this will be one of the great cyclones of Australian history-- up there with Tracy and a few choice others.

I know that's a big "if", but these models are showing doomsday run after run. It's really quite provocative.

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