HurricaneJosh Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 Looks like a TS already. Fiji has initiated advisories on the system-- currently still TD 09F: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A2 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 29/2022 UTC 2011 UTC. TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD09F CENTRE 1003HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.3S 171.3E AT 291800 UTC. TD09F MOVING WEST AT ABOUT 11 KNOTS. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT IR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. SST AROUND 29 DEGREE CELCIUS. ORGANISATION IMPROVED SLIGHTLY PAST 12 HOURS. CONVECTION HAS INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE PAST 6 HOURS. SYSTEM LIES ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH AND UNDER 250HPA RIDGE AXIS IN A WEAK SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS TO 500HPA. SYSTEM EXPECTED TO BE STEERED WESTWARDS MAINLY BY THE DEEP LAYER MEAN EASTERLIES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE GRADUALLY DEVELOPING THE DEPRESSION AND MAINTAINING A WEST-SOUTHWEST TRACK. THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS MODERATE TO HIGH. Weird that they don't indicate wind speed-- just an estimated pressure. The cyclone will be under Fiji's responsibility until it crosses 160E, so until then, y'all can get the latest advisories here: http://www.met.gov.fj/advisories.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 30, 2011 Author Share Posted January 30, 2011 In other news... Bianca is rapidly weakening and losing tropical characteristics as it accelerates SE toward Perth. It's down to Cat 1 (on the Aussie scale) and will probably just be a remnant, transitioning low by the time it reaches the shore. On the other side of the continent, Anthony is looking like crap and the BoM is now expressing doubts that it will even reach Cat 2-- a strong TS on our scale-- before it reaches the coast near Ayr. I want these two crap systems to get out of the way already so we can focus all of our attention on the hawt thang near Fiji. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 still has some issues to be dealt with...needs to mix out that stable air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AussieStormGirl Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Hi Guys Hope it is OK for me to post on this thread. I'm no expert just interested in cyclones (especially those that look like they are approaching the North Queensland Coast). Anthony is just down the road but no one is too concerned as at most it looks like only being a cat 2. I think most people in Queensland are more concerned getting more rain. Although after reading this I think the next system may be pretty interesting......although the talk here is that Nth Qld doesn't have to be concerned more the residents of south Qld. Can someone please explain to me (remember I am NO expert on this subject) why the next system off Fiji is getting everyone so excited? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 SSD site calling it Yasi, Fiji, the UN WMO RMSC still as it as 09 F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alby_14 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 P.S. I was toying with the idea of chasing this one-- if it develops and behaves as modeled-- but it looks logistically impractical. The pricing isn't too bad, but getting from Prague to Brisbane is a spectacular pain in the azz, with two stops and around 30 hrs of travel. Ugh. If you could get to Singapore there are plenty of flights to Australia from there. I think Emirates are pretty good between Europe and Australia? But yeh, jet lag and travel time would be a killer without a day or 2 rest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Hi Guys Hope it is OK for me to post on this thread. I'm no expert just interested in cyclones (especially those that look like they are approaching the North Queensland Coast). Anthony is just down the road but no one is too concerned as at most it looks like only being a cat 2. I think most people in Queensland are more concerned getting more rain. Although after reading this I think the next system may be pretty interesting......although the talk here is that Nth Qld doesn't have to be concerned more the residents of south Qld. Can someone please explain to me (remember I am NO expert on this subject) why the next system off Fiji is getting everyone so excited? Looks good on satellite, has had excellent model support for several days. Good conditions. Will post semiunofficial US Navy/Air Force Joint Typhoon Warning Center discussion below. REMARKS:300300Z POSITION NEAR 13.1S 169.9E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11P, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 305 NM NORTH- NORTHEAST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A RAPIDLY-CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL- DEFINED CENTER. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY IS UNAVAILABLE, HOWEVER, A 291814Z CORIOLIS 36H IMAGE ALSO SUPPORTED THE RAPID DEVELOPMENT AND DEPICTED MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE BANDING AND A SMALL MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. A 292139Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWED 30-35 KNOT WINDS NEAR THE CENTER. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE IMPRESSIVE SATELLITE SIGNATURE AS WELL AS THE CORRESPONDING DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND PHFO. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE LLCC IS LOCATED UNDER AN ANTICYCLONE WITH WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTED EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW. TC 11P IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48 THEN TURN WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD IN THE LATER TAUS. THE STR IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT WILL SHIFT EAST AND RE- ORIENT AS A MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER CENTRAL AUSTRALIA AFTER TAU 72. THE AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS LIMITED BUT IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THEREFORE THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK. THE ECMWF TRACKER IS UNAVAILABLE BUT THE 29/12Z MODEL FIELDS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THIS FORECAST TRACK IS BASED LARGELY ON THE CONSENSUS. BASED ON THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AND THE RECENT INTENSIFICATION TREND, TC 11P IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT A 20-25 KNOT RATE PER DAY THROUGH TAU 72 AND AT A SLOWER RATE UNTIL MAKING LANDFALL NEAR TAU 96. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO PEAK HIGHER THAN 110 KNOTS AND MAKE LANDFALL AS A VERY STRONG, LARGE SYSTEM. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 291651Z JAN 11 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW 291700). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300000Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 301500Z AND 310300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (ANTHONY) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// NNNN Hotlink, should update on each F5... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Once again, I'm in agreement with Adam...looks like a high end Cat 3 (SS) landfall between MacKay and Townsville Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AussieStormGirl Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Once again, I'm in agreement with Adam...looks like a high end Cat 3 (SS) landfall between MacKay and Townsville Have been reading some weather sites in Aus and everyone has it crossing in completely different areas...............I don't want to sound tooooo excited but lets hope she likes North Qld and comes in around the Cairns -> Innisfail area. Don't like my chances though as apparently old BOM staff are all saying Central Queensland...... I guess we'll have to wait and see what happens?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 30, 2011 Author Share Posted January 30, 2011 Hi Guys Hope it is OK for me to post on this thread. I'm no expert just interested in cyclones (especially those that look like they are approaching the North Queensland Coast). Anthony is just down the road but no one is too concerned as at most it looks like only being a cat 2. I think most people in Queensland are more concerned getting more rain. Although after reading this I think the next system may be pretty interesting......although the talk here is that Nth Qld doesn't have to be concerned more the residents of south Qld. Can someone please explain to me (remember I am NO expert on this subject) why the next system off Fiji is getting everyone so excited? Hey, AussieStormGirl-- welcome. The reasons everyone-- including the BoM-- is paying such close attention to this system are 1) for days the different computer models have been consistently indicating it will develop into an intense cyclone, 2) it already looks large and robust, and 3) the steering pattern will most likely bring it into Queensland. Of course nothing is certain, but a lot of the indicators are quite provocative with this one. If you could get to Singapore there are plenty of flights to Australia from there. I think Emirates are pretty good between Europe and Australia? But yeh, jet lag and travel time would be a killer without a day or 2 rest. Yeah, I checked and you're right-- there are plenty of options for SIN-BNE. And there are also a lot of options for PRG-SIN. But putting them together, it's still a mess of an itinerary. I talked with my business partner about it today-- he understands how important cyclone chasing is to me-- be we agreed that this one is a no-go. I've got so much going on-- including a presentation to a major car brand next Monday. Grrr. It's going to be awful hard to watch this one from the sidelines. Looks good on satellite, has had excellent model support for several days. Good conditions. Will post semiunofficial US Navy/Air Force Joint Typhoon Warning Center discussion below. Hotlink, should update on each F5... Wow-- that is a mega-bullish first warning from the JTWC. Man. A 110-kt cyclone right smack into the coast between Cairns and Townsville. Yowee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 30, 2011 Author Share Posted January 30, 2011 Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 30, 2011 Author Share Posted January 30, 2011 In other news... Bianca has degenerated to a remnant low offshore, and all Cyclone Warnings for Perth and the surrounding areas are canceled. On the other side, Anthony has picked up a bit and is actually a robust Cat 2 (AUS), with an intensity of 984 mb/55 kt (10-min)-- flirting with hurricane force on our scale. It should cross the coast near the town of Bowen within the next couple of hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 30, 2011 Author Share Posted January 30, 2011 Fiji estimates the current intensity at 994 mb/35 kt (10-min). They bring Yasi W for the next couple of days, bending WSW later in the period-- in good agreement with the JTWC. The 48-hr forecast puts the intensity at 75 kt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Wow. I'm worried about what I screwed up in my forecast. It agrees almost exactly with JTWC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 30, 2011 Author Share Posted January 30, 2011 I'm worried about what I screwed up in my forecast. It agrees almost exactly with JTWC Hush, you. Fiji also agrees with JTWC. I guess this sort of wide consensus makes sense, given that the models are in tight agreement as well. The new JTWC warning is essentially a carbon copy of the previous one, bringing a Cat 3 (USA) ashore between Cairns and Townsville. It looks like the cyclone will be moving pretty briskly as it nears the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 30, 2011 Author Share Posted January 30, 2011 Oh, Anthony has just made landfall near Bowen-- and it's nothing too impressive. Current intensity estimate is 40 kt (1-min) from JTWC and 45 kt (10-min) from BoM-- so the latter agency seems to think it's a bit stronger. At any rate, it's no big deal and it's over land now... ...So now we can just focus on Yasi. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Oh, Anthony has just made landfall near Bowen-- and it's nothing too impressive. Current intensity estimate is 40 kt (1-min) from JTWC and 45 kt (10-min) from BoM-- so the latter agency seems to think it's a bit stronger. At any rate, it's no big deal and it's over land now... ...So now we can just focus on Yasi. And the small size means only local effects for flooding, which is a big deal down there right now. So I suppose that's a plus. But yeah, Yasi. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 good morning everyone...this is all i plan on doing today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 30, 2011 Author Share Posted January 30, 2011 good morning everyone...this is all i plan on doing today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 30, 2011 Author Share Posted January 30, 2011 Interestingly, the Fiji Meteorological Service is being way more conservative with the intensity forecast, compared with Vanuatu Meteorological Services and the JTWC. Compare the 48-hr forecast intensities: * Fiji: 65 kt (10-min) * Vanuatu: 80 kt (10-min) * JTWC: 95 kt (1-min) When you take into account the fact that the JTWC uses a 1-min wind (not 10-min), the JTWC and Vanuatu are in pretty-good agreement. Fiji is quite low in comparison. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Are there any tropical models run in this part of the world available to the general public on the internet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Are there any tropical models run in this part of the world available to the general public on the internet? Do you mean like GFDL or HWRF? If there are, I don't know where they are. You can get the GFDN off Kerry Emanuel's site, but I'd rather have a toddler put together a forecast than use that garbage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 That was what I meant. I was also wondering if JWTC had a version of SHIPS for the basin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 That was what I meant. I was also wondering if JWTC had a version of SHIPS for the basin. Kerry's site has the STIPS guidance, but the detailed text file is not publicly available (I tried to get a feed from John Knaff, who runs it, but said JTWC mandates it be kept private). Here's Kerry's site if you don't have it: http://wind.mit.edu/~emanuel/storm.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Been months since I looked at CIMSS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Kerry's site has the STIPS guidance, but the detailed text file is not publicly available (I tried to get a feed from John Knaff, who runs it, but said JTWC mandates it be kept private). Here's Kerry's site if you don't have it: http://wind.mit.edu/...nuel/storm.html Someone has to come in on a weekend and add a new storm, I take it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Interestingly, the Fiji Meteorological Service is being way more conservative with the intensity forecast, compared with Vanuatu Meteorological Services and the JTWC. Compare the 48-hr forecast intensities: * Fiji: 65 kt (10-min) * Vanuatu: 80 kt (10-min) * JTWC: 95 kt (1-min) When you take into account the fact that the JTWC uses a 1-min wind (not 10-min), the JTWC and Vanuatu are in pretty-good agreement. Fiji is quite low in comparison. With the OHC it has to work with and the lack of shear, i'd be pretty shocked if it were as low as Fiji has it. It's gotta be a good RI candidate...wouldn't be surprised if Vanuatu and the navy bust low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 30, 2011 Author Share Posted January 30, 2011 With the OHC it has to work with and the lack of shear, i'd be pretty shocked if it were as low as Fiji has it. It's gotta be a good RI candidate...wouldn't be surprised if Vanuatu and the navy bust low. Totally. Some of the forecasts and modeling (and the imagery) are giving me a "Fort Lauderdale 1947" feel-- just a large, deep, intense cyclone with a huge envelope of damaging winds. Kind of like what Ike wanted to be but never quite became. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 With the OHC it has to work with and the lack of shear, i'd be pretty shocked if it were as low as Fiji has it. It's gotta be a good RI candidate...wouldn't be surprised if Vanuatu and the navy bust low. I actually wrote that my Cat 3 forecast might be conservative, but without STIPS, I had a hard time justifying bringing to Cat 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 30, 2011 Author Share Posted January 30, 2011 I actually wrote that my Cat 3 forecast might be conservative, but without STIPS, I had a hard time justifying bringing to Cat 4. A Cat 4 (USA) would be serious sh*t in this part of Queensland. Except for Larry 2006-- which was apparently a Cat 4 (USA), as per the BoM and JTWC-- I don't know of any other Cat-4 landfalls S of Port Douglas (i.e., where people are) in the last 50 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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