Aussie (& S-Hemisphere) Cyclone Action 2010-2011

[am19psu]

Hey, thanks, kush, for this cool model rundown.

The agreement between the Euro and the Canadian is remarkable-- as is the general consensus that some sort of significant cyclone will come ashore in Queensland in the next week. Interestingly, the GFS"s second, later cyclone looks very much like what the other models are showing next week.

It'll be interesting to watch this unfold.

I'm pretty amazed at how consistent the models have been with the storm for next week. I started out skeptical, but I've alerted clients that this is most likely going to happen and to be prepared.

[k***]

I'm pretty amazed at how consistent the models have been with the storm for next week. I started out skeptical, but I've alerted clients that this is most likely going to happen and to be prepared.

Yeah, with all the problems that the models have in the SH, to have this type of consistency is quite amazing.

[HurricaneJosh]

The Fiji Meteorological Service is continuing to track TD 09F-- the thing that will apparently become the monster Queensland cyclone that the models have been so insistent about.

I hate to be such a model weenie, but it's hard not to get a little excited by 1) the persistence of this feature in the modeling and 2) the broad agreement between multiple models Re: it.

Could get some big action out of this.

[HurricaneJosh]

Oh, the morning's headlines:

* Anthony is having trouble getting it together and it doesn't look like it'll be anything more than a mid-range Cat 2 (a mediocre TS on our scale) at landfall in QLD.

* Bianca is starting to feel the effects of strong shear, and the BoM expects it to rapidly weaken as it accelerates toward the SW corner of Australia. However, if it accelerates enough, it could still be a bona-fide tropical cyclone as it crosses the coast near Perth-- with gales and so on. Could be interesting, simply because Perth is a major population center and the region doesn't get real cyclones too often.

OK, that's all for now.

[alby_14]

The last TC to impact Perth was Alby in 1978 Not a direct hit, and far from it, but itll do. http://www.bom.gov.a...y/wa/alby.shtml

Bianca is holding together despite shear and cool SST's. I still think the girl will skirt around the SW WA Cape.

Here is a good summary from the ABC media re current activity.

West readies to take first hit as cyclones close in

Saturday January 29, 2011 - 21:22 EDT Australia's east and west coasts are preparing to be hit by two tropical cyclones in the next two days, as a third, larger system continues to lurk off the coast of Fiji. Tropical Cyclone Bianca is forecast to hit south-west Western Australia on Sunday and Tropical Cyclone Anthony is expected to cross the coast north of Townsville, in Queensland, on Monday.

Authorities are urging people between Jurien Bay and Albany, in Western Australia, to prepare their homes as Cyclone Bianca moves towards the coast. The Bureau of Meteorology expects the category three storm to weaken before hitting the coast sometime between Sunday morning and Sunday night. The Bureau's Mike Bergin says with the cyclone continuing to weaken, the severity of its impact will depend on when it hits the coast. "Something will move through the south-western parts of Western Australia tomorrow afternoon or tomorrow," he said. "The question is whether it will be tomorrow morning or later in the day.

"If it's in the morning that's when we'll get the serious impact, if it's later in the day it will be much diminished. And that's the crux of the problem.

"Off the coast of north Queensland, category one Cyclone Anthony is expected to gather speed and intensify slightly before crossing the coast between Townsville and Ayr early on Monday. A cyclone watch is in place between Innisfail and St Lawrence. Manfred Greitschus, from the weather bureau, says it is likely to bring galeforce winds and heavy rain across north Queensland late tomorrow. "It could intensify just before it crosses the coast," he said.

Authorities are also monitoring a large system near Fiji, which could develop into a severe cyclone that could hit Queensland later next week. Queensland's disaster coordinator Ian Stewart wants communities between Cooktown and Hervey Bay to prepare now. Mr Stewart says authorities still believe the system near Fiji could develop into a category four or five cyclone. "It is a very, very large system and is very concerning to us in terms of its size and its power," he said. "Should it come towards Queensland, it is an issue that we should look at very, very carefully in terms of any further preparations, particularly for coastal shipping and obviously inundation." He says they are concerned about the possibility of more flooding. "Cyclones do bring large amounts of rain," he said. Supermarkets have been warned to consider their lines of supply. But Mr Stewart says two cyclones will not stretch resources beyond the state's limits. "We're already considering how we can resupply both resources and assets into those areas and we take early action to pre-deploy specialist assets," he said. "For example the Queensland Fire and Rescue Authority have already made arrangements to pre-deploy their urban search and rescue and some elements of their swift water rescue."

- ABC

© ABC 2010

[HurricaneJosh]

Thanks for posting that article, Alby!

That's very interesting that the mainstream has already picked up on the threat from the Fiji depression. That talk of a Cat 4 or 5 makes me want to jump on a plane to Brisbane right now! Grrrrrrrr.

This aside, I'm surprised that Perth hasn't had a real cyclone in that long. I mean, I know it's not exactly prone to them, but that's a long while. Alby, have they ever had a direct hit from a Cat 3 down there? I see from the BoM link you posted that Alby was near Cat-3 intensity within hours of passing near Perth-- although it didn't look very tropical by that point.

[alby_14]

Thanks for posting that article, Alby!

That's very interesting that the mainstream has already picked up on the threat from the Fiji depression. That talk of a Cat 4 or 5 makes me want to jump on a plane to Brisbane right now! Grrrrrrrr.

This aside, I'm surprised that Perth hasn't had a real cyclone in that long. I mean, I know it's not exactly prone to them, but that's a long while. Alby, have they ever had a direct hit from a Cat 3 down there? I see from the BoM link you posted that Alby was near Cat-3 intensity within hours of passing near Perth-- although it didn't look very tropical by that point.

I cant ever recall a severe, let alone a TC striking the SW of WA. A quick search of BoM suggests the same:

http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/climatology/wa.shtml#tracks

[ValleyPA]

Hey, Josh, for NZ storm news, this is a pretty good site:

http://weatherwatch.co.nz/

Right now you can read about the effect of Wilma's remnants on the North Island.

[gil888]

I'm pretty amazed at how consistent the models have been with the storm for next week. I started out skeptical, but I've alerted clients that this is most likely going to happen and to be prepared.

The European had this nailed at 240 hours. Never quite seen it this good. It might end up being a couple hundred miles off, but the idea of two tropical cyclones in close succession in proximity to one another-- impressive.

[alby_14]

While we wait for a landfall here in Aus, someone on NAC posted this FB link of a news story re TC Tracy. There are a couple of guys at work who have some crazy Tracy stories! Sunburnt chooks with no feathers, naked ladies next door with their clothes blown off, cars blown into second stories, dead people but the cops only care if they are alive. Scary freaking stuff. Im fascinated, but mate, I hope I never get caught in a 4 or a 5.

PS. I know people must be tired of hearing about Darwin and Tracy, but hell, its a good way to fill in the days and learn from her!

[Ed Lizard]

Looking good for development...

[k***]

yeah, this is going to be a beast...it's gotta be a TC already. it's sitting in total bathwater >30 C.

[HurricaneJosh]

Hey, Josh, for NZ storm news, this is a pretty good site:

http://weatherwatch.co.nz/

Right now you can read about the effect of Wilma's remnants on the North Island.

Hey, thanks, Mary-- this is a great overview of what happened. It seems the winds weren't too big a deal-- with max gusts around 45 kt-- but clearly this was a major rain producer. From the pics and the news reports, it seems like there was a some major flooding.

Thanks for the link!

While we wait for a landfall here in Aus, someone on NAC posted this FB link of a news story re TC Tracy. There are a couple of guys at work who have some crazy Tracy stories! Sunburnt chooks with no feathers, naked ladies next door with their clothes blown off, cars blown into second stories, dead people but the cops only care if they are alive. Scary freaking stuff. Im fascinated, but mate, I hope I never get caught in a 4 or a 5.

PS. I know people must be tired of hearing about Darwin and Tracy, but hell, its a good way to fill in the days and learn from her!

Those stories are insane! Based on the BoM's estimates, the max 1-min winds were around 110 or 115 kt-- either a strong Cat 3 or a low-end Cat 4 on our scale. That having been said, some of these images and anecdotes suggest something stronger. People say the construction in Darwin was crappy and that's partly why everything blew apart, but look at the trees in those images-- they are totally, 100% denuded. That suggests winds higher than 110 to 115 kt.

P.S. Don't worry-- we don't get tired of talking abut Tracy here. It's one of the more fascinating cyclone case studies-- in your basin or ours. Thanks for the very cool link.

P.P.S. Have you been the to the Cyclone Tracy exhibit in the Darwin Museum? Is it a worthwhile exhibit, or more of a tourist trap?

[HurricaneJosh]

yeah, this is going to be a beast...it's gotta be a TC already. it's sitting in total bathwater >30 C.

I'm getting really excited about this one.

The JTWC has issued a Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert-- so hopefully they'll start issuing warnings soon. I'd like to see some official forecast tracks with this. Right now, the only official agency tracking it is the Fiji Meteorological Service, and since it's only a depression, they're not giving a lot of specifics Re: future path and intensity.

When you look at the size and shape of this thing on the imagery, it's easy to understand why officials all the way in Queensland are already on alert.

[am19psu]

I'm getting really excited about this one.

The JTWC has issued a Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert-- so hopefully they'll start issuing warnings soon. I'd like to see some official forecast tracks with this. Right now, the only official agency tracking it is the Fiji Meteorological Service, and since it's only a depression, they're not giving a lot of specifics Re: future path and intensity.

When you look at the size and shape of this thing on the imagery, it's easy to understand why officials all the way in Queensland are already on alert.

FWIW, I took it in to Townsville on Wednesday as a S-S Cat 3 and wrote to the possibility of it being stronger.

[HurricaneJosh]

FWIW, I took it in to Townsville on Wednesday as a S-S Cat 3 and wrote to the possibility of it being stronger.

Wow. That would be a very big deal. Like, really big. Cyclones that strong are quite unusual along this very populated section of the Queensland coast.

Thanks for sharing your forecast-- you have some backbone to share something so bullish so far out!

[am19psu]

Wow. That would be a very big deal. Like, really big. Cyclones that strong are quite unusual along this very populated section of the Queensland coast.

Thanks for sharing your forecast-- you have some backbone to share something so bullish so far out!

Yeah, climo is definitely against it, but it's hard to argue against 5 days of model runs in a row. Obviously the intensity forecast is the most troublesome, but I suspect we'll see some RI out of this thing along the way, particularly on Monday or Tuesday. The only thing I can see slowing it down is if there is shear that's not currently progged in.

[HurricaneJosh]

For anyone who's interested...

The benchmark cyclone for Queensland for the last 50 years is Larry 2006. The center crossed the coast at the town of Innisfail around daybreak on 20 March. As mentioned above, this is the most densely populated portion of Australia's enormous, cross-continent cyclone country.

Intensity estimates at landfall from both agencies suggest it was a Cat 4 on our scale:

* BoM: 940 mb/110 kt (10-min), or ~125 kt (1-min)

* JTWC: 937 mb/115 kt (1-min)

The cyclone was on the small side, however, wind damage was heavy in the towns that were in the core-- Innisfail, Babinda, and Silkwood-- where the BoM estimated gusts reached up to 130 kt.

You can check out the BoM's report on Larry here: http://www.bom.gov.au/qld/cyclone/tc_larry/

[k***]

thats a badass eyewall t-storm

[HurricaneJosh]

thats a badass eyewall t-storm

Yeah. It's exaggerated a bit by the dawn's early light-- however, the BoM noted it, and that flareup caused them to suspect that some rapid deepening may have happened just around landfall-- to the point where they felt for a time that it might have been a Cat 5 at landfall (on their scale). Postanalysis findings didn't justify a Cat-5 designation, so the landfall intensity is set at 4.

[HurricaneJosh]

P.S. I was toying with the idea of chasing this one-- if it develops and behaves as modeled-- but it looks logistically impractical. The pricing isn't too bad, but getting from Prague to Brisbane is a spectacular pain in the azz, with two stops and around 30 hrs of travel. Ugh.

[k***]

P.S. I was toying with the idea of chasing this one-- if it develops and behaves as modeled-- but it looks logistically impractical. The pricing isn't too bad, but getting from Prague to Brisbane is a spectacular pain in the azz, with two stops and around 30 hrs of travel. Ugh.

I was wondering about that. Too bad central Europe is such a crappy starting point for a chase. If you were in LA I bet you could've made it.

[HurricaneJosh]

I was wondering about that. Too bad central Europe is such a crappy starting point for a chase. If you were in LA I bet you could've made it.

Ugh, yep. Could've done a nonstop flight from LAX to BNE. And I would have. What I like about this setup is that it's taking shape days in advance-- it allows for real planning. And, hey, if it busted, I've never been to Australia, so at least it would be cool just to be there and see it. But from here, it just looks too messy.

Grrrr.

[HurricaneJosh]

The BoM is now mentioning the Fiji depression in its Coral Sea Outlook:

A low currently northwest of Fiji is forecast to develop into a tropical cyclone and move west into the region on Tuesday.

By the way, if it develops into a cyclone (TS), it will be called either Yasi (if it develops E of 160E) or Carlos (if it develops W of 160E).

I'm not totally wild about either name. Blah.

[Ed Lizard]

P.S. I was toying with the idea of chasing this one-- if it develops and behaves as modeled-- but it looks logistically impractical. The pricing isn't too bad, but getting from Prague to Brisbane is a spectacular pain in the azz, with two stops and around 30 hrs of travel. Ugh.

Its worth it.

I promise I will get my wife to order i-Cyclone crap for my birthday if you go. Could you take a train to Frankfurt or something and make part of the trip scenic at least?

C'mon, jet setting international man of the world Hollywood playboy James Bond, licensed to videotape, c'mon.

JTWC showing more interest

WTPS21 PGTW 291700MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN170 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.3S 173.2E TO 15.4S 166.1EWITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFYISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSATIMAGERY AT 291630Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATEDNEAR 14.3S 172.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS.2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.3S 172.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.3S 172.4E, APPROXIMATELY 315 NM NORTHEAST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 291408Z AMSU IMAGE INDICATE INCREASING CONSOLIDATION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WRAPPING INTO THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. A 291031Z ASCAT IMAGE DEPICTED A SYMMETRIC, WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH 25-30 KNOT WINDS OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS, THE LLCC HAS STRENGTHENED AND BECOME WELL-DEFINED. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE LLCC IS LOCATED UNDER ANEXTENSION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WITH WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. OVERALL, THE OUTFLOW HAS IMPROVED WITH CONTINUED GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW DUE TO A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE POSITIONED JUST SOUTH OF FIJI. NUMERICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO PREDICT SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB.DUE TO THE IMPROVED CONSOLIDATION AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 301700Z.//NNNN

[HurricaneJosh]

Its worth it.

I promise I will get my wife to order i-Cyclone crap for my birthday if you go. Could you take a train to Frankfurt or something and make part of the trip scenic at least?

C'mon, jet setting international man of the world Hollywood playboy James Bond, licensed to videotape, c'mon.

JTWC showing more interest

Well, I appreciate the interest in my work. It's weird you mentioned Frankfurt, as I had actually just looked at flights from there-- like you, I figured it would be a better departure point since it's a major hub-- but, surprisingly, it wasn't any better! Grrrr. It's so annoying being stuck here like this. Like kush said, I could've done it from LAX.

[k***]

nice

[HurricaneJosh]

Omg! That's crazy that it has such a decent microwave presentation and it's not even a classified cyclone yet. Weird.

[Ed Lizard]

JWTC has issued its last advisory on Bianca.

I thought, based on SST map, it'be be like trying to hit Boston from the ESE...

[k***]