MoWeatherguy Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Our biggest concern with this system is that warm air layer - always underestimated by models. Would severely cut into snow totals for most of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 17, 2011 Author Share Posted January 17, 2011 Our biggest concern with this system is that warm air layer - always underestimated by models. Would severely cut into snow totals for most of us. According to the GFS, it goes away pretty quickly and that front is a monster. I think it shows surface temps of 15-20 here by the time the best snow happens. Lift at 500 MB is pretty intense, decent lift at 700 MB as well. (granted NW Arkansas is going to be on the line probably) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Not bad. Good analysis and research BTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 17, 2011 Author Share Posted January 17, 2011 Not bad. Good analysis and research BTW. yeah the NAM has different ideas though. I also think the temp may be in the 20's during the best snow, hard to tell. I wish it was closer though because any shifts would drastically change things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 yeah the NAM has different ideas though. I also think the temp may be in the 20's during the best snow, hard to tell. I wish it was closer though because any shifts would drastically change things. Yeah unfortunately 84 hrs is like an eternity in the weather world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 17, 2011 Author Share Posted January 17, 2011 GGEM has 2 areas of heavier precip at 84. One basically going from Joplin to the northeast. Another in NW Ark to central OK, then curving back NW. At 96, best precip is from SE OK on east and northeast across central Ark. GFS ENS Mean 84 96 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 At least we have something concrete to latch onto and track now. I am not convinced the warm nose interferes at this point. Lots of time for me to change my mind, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valerie Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 lookin good for tulsa! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 12z NAM slams the four state region with precip, but it appears its temps are too warm for the greatest precip to fall as snow. Am I reading that correctly? It looks like it wants to keep some of it as rain?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 12z NAM slams the four state region with precip, but it appears its temps are too warm for the greatest precip to fall as snow. Am I reading that correctly? It looks like it wants to keep some of it as rain?? Yeah temps are borderline at h72 but then cools enough by around h75 for most of us. Most of the good precip is gone by h78 (noon Thur) but there appears to be good lift at most levels during this timeframe so could get some good precip rates. Tot snowfall map is reflective of the fact that a lot of this falls as something other than snow - especially over parts of NE OK and NW AR. So temps are critical, as always. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valerie Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 frz rain wed. nite snow thursday no rain here. im aready conemplating keeping my daughter home thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 17, 2011 Author Share Posted January 17, 2011 Still looking good for some snow on the GFS/NAM. GGEM puts Spot in the bullseye for heavier precip over central OK at 72. Then slightly lighter in Arkansas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 12z GFS maybe slightly colder overall than NAM (which accounts for more snow in NW AR than NAM) but not as wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 And the GFS has a new system that is "wet" in the 162-168 hour time frame... or around Monday. The hits just keep coming. I'll take lighter events if they come in succession. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 17, 2011 Author Share Posted January 17, 2011 Euro from Chicago WX: 78 has LT-MOD precip from NE OK up to just west of the FWA area. Includes JLN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 And the GFS has a new system that is "wet" in the 162-168 hour time frame... or around Monday. The hits just keep coming. I'll take lighter events if they come in succession. The Euro had been hinting at another system in that timeframe up until its 0z run last night so could be a possibility for sure. Keep em coming! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 12z Euro totals thru Thur PM: SGF - .29 JLN- .29 FAY - .22 TUL - .23 All 2M temps look to be below frz (except at the beginning for NW AR) and upper air temps look good for the duration. So Euro has came in a bit wetter this morning. The bulk of the precip falls in the 12z to 18z range Thur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 17, 2011 Author Share Posted January 17, 2011 12z Euro totals thru Thur PM: SGF - .29 JLN- .29 FAY - .22 TUL - .23 All 2M temps look to be below frz (except at the beginning for NW AR) and upper air temps look good for the duration. So Euro has came in a bit wetter this morning. The bulk of the precip falls in the 12z to 18z range Thur. some of the SREF members are going crazy with precip. It will be interesting to see what happens as we get closer to the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 17, 2011 Author Share Posted January 17, 2011 The Euro had been hinting at another system in that timeframe up until its 0z run last night so could be a possibility for sure. Keep em coming! Euro is showing this as well today, eh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Euro is showing this as well today, eh? Yeah starting to pick up on it again now on the Euro - showing .05 for here by 12z Monday - all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 17, 2011 Author Share Posted January 17, 2011 Yeah starting to pick up on it again now on the Euro - showing .05 for here by 12z Monday - all snow. Looks like there is probably more out towards Wichita. Also looks like there's just a train of waves dipping down into the SW and kicking out in the extended Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 No significant wording differences in the area WFOs in regards to their HWO products. Tulsa is going ahead and saying 1-3" on top of a glaze of ice. Will be interesting to read the afternoon forecast discussions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 SGF going w/ 2-4 inches for the entire Springfield area. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO GROW IN A WINTER WEATHER EVENT FOR THE ENTIRE REGION BEGINNING LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PERSISTING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. IT APPEARS THAT SNOW SHOULD BEGIN OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST AS ISENTROPIC LIFT/WAA INCREASES AHEAD OF A PAIR OF MARGINALLY-PHASED SHORTWAVES EMANATING FROM THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES....WHILE BROAD CYCLOGENESIS COMMENCES IN THE VICINITY OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY. CURRENTLY EXPECT TO SEE SNOW GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING. THURSDAY DURING THE DAY LOOKS TO PROBABLY BE THE MOST INTERESTING METEOROLOGICALLY...AND MOST CHALLENGING AS FAR AS ACCUMS GO. INGREDIENTS APPEAR TO BE COMING TOGETHER FOR A MESOSCALE FORCED EVENT...LARGELY FRONTOGENETICAL IN NATURE...DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. SUITE OF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT ORIENTATION OF LOW AND MID LEVEL TEMP GRADIENTS SHOULD BE QUITE IDEAL FOR DEEP FRONTOGENESIS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...WITH CROSS SECTIONS OVER THE CWA CERTAINLY SUPPORTING THIS CONCEPT. THIS WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN BANDING OF SNOWFALL...AND AT LEAST SHORT PERIODS OF DECENT ACCUMULATION RATES DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. BESIDES PINPOINTING THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE BEST FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING...OTHER MOST SIGNIFICANT CONCERN AT THIS POINT WILL BE THE EVENTUAL VERTICAL TEMPERATURE PROFILE (AFFECTING SNOW RATIOS AND PERHAPS EVEN P-TYPE IN THE FAR SOUTH). CURRENT FORECAST SOUNDINGS GENERALLY SUPPORT ALL SNOW FOR THE AREA...SAVE FOR PERHAPS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN CWA. JUST WENT WITH ALL SNOW FOR NOW...AS TRYING TO PIN DOWN EXACT RAIN/SNOW/MIX LINE(S) WOULD BE A COIN FLIP AT BEST THIS FAR OUT. FOR RATIOS...GENERALLY FOLLOWED A 11-12:1 RATIO FOR THE ONSET...WITH GRADUAL INCREASES ACROSS THE NORTH DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL COOL A BIT...AND THEN A 15-16:1 OVER THE ENTIRE AREA AS THINGS COME TO AN END THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE AREA AND SUBSIDENCE SHUTS DOWN THE SNOW MACHINE. DON`T WANT TO GET TOO CUTE WITH ACCUMULATIONS AT THIS POINT CONSIDERING THE ALL-IMPORTANT DETAILS THAT NEED TO BE RESOLVED...BUT CURRENT ACCUMS LOOK TO BE IN THE SOLID ADVISORY RANGE...GENERALLY 2-4 ACROSS THE AREA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 17, 2011 Author Share Posted January 17, 2011 yeah the 18z NAM came in a bit farther south. Not sure where all that precip is going that it's showing. Maybe sleet or freezing rain or rain. Very sharp on a couple of the fronts should produce some pretty extreme banding along with the lift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Someone is going to get nailed with wintery precip... but the question this far out remains who. I just hope the NAM is wrong and it is more snow than ice. Otherwise, some areas may be in trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 TSA thinks its going to be minimal in our area. No shock there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 TSA thinks its going to be minimal in our area. No shock there. Sometimes their AFDs upset me. Like today, for instance. Minimal snowfall is, in my mind... less than 1", yet they paint 2"+ in portions of their CWA. Doesn't that deserve more than a one liner. Kudos to SGF for at least discussing things in their AFD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Sometimes their AFDs upset me. Like today, for instance. Minimal snowfall is, in my mind... less than 1", yet they paint 2"+ in portions of their CWA. Doesn't that deserve more than a one liner. Kudos to SGF for at least discussing things in their AFD. Can't agree more. It's like TSA just didn't try very hard today. If their AFD was a school term paper the teacher would have marked it with an "F", handed it back, and told them to try again and put a little more effort into it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 I'm gonna ride the Euro on this one. Been very consistent w/ track over the past several runs as it usually is in this range. We may see variations from the others (esp NAM) over the next 24-36 hrs but it usually ends up back in bed w/ the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 17, 2011 Author Share Posted January 17, 2011 yeah the Euro has it pegged. NAM is sucking like usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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