valerie Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 According to Chicago WX. Euro shows some snow with the best between Joplin and St. Louis. Estimates 0.2-0.5 QPF for Joplin area. hey now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Euro model output: JLN - .25; SGF - .22; TUL - .16; FYV - .10; STL - .30. Looks to be all snow everywhere in this region. Not sure on what the ratios would be but 850 temps are mostly in the -5 to -10 range. Has another snow event here by day 9. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 16, 2011 Author Share Posted January 16, 2011 Euro model output: JLN - .25; SGF - .22; TUL - .16; STL - .30. Looks to be all snow everywhere in this region. Not sure on what the ratios would be but 850 temps are mostly in the -5 to -10 range. once again on the edge, it has a longer time to go north though now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 I think I'm more worried about a move south this year, even though the last one dumped more snows N of here. This is really looking like a nickel and dime winter around here where we may end up somewhere in the 10-15" range on the season but nothing bigger than 3" at a time. Prolly pretty typical of the NW flow we're in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 NWS SGF updated HWO is predicting between 2-5" of snow Wed. night into Thursday across much of the area. I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 NWS SGF updated HWO is predicting between 2-5" of snow Wed. night into Thursday across much of the area. I'll take it. Cool. Been waiting on their AFD but no update there yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 I should clarify their graphical product and legend has this. The text does not say that. Tulsa's AFD and graphical products indicate they believe NE OK may see up to .1" ice and 1-2" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 NWS SGF updated HWO is predicting between 2-5" of snow Wed. night into Thursday across much of the area. I'll take it. Where are you seeing the accum of 2-5 in their HWO? Not seeing that in their text. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 I should clarify their graphical product and legend has this. The text does not say that. Tulsa's AFD and graphical products indicate they believe NE OK may see up to .1" ice and 1-2" of snow. OK gotcha. Nevermind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 16, 2011 Author Share Posted January 16, 2011 Cool. Been waiting on their AFD but no update there yet. Springfield AFD: Another upper level short wave trough is then prognosticated to dig southeast into the area during the Wednesday into Thursday time frame. From a synoptic scale standpoint...there appears to be a good likelihood that deep tropospheric ascent will set up somewhere across the region. In the upper levels...models continue to put the region in the right entrance region of an increasing upper level jet streak. In the lower and middle levels...the digging trough should result in a fairly decent low level jet/isentropic upglide. Models also depict a decent frontogenetic zone. With all of that said...have increased probability of precipitation into the high chance range from Wednesday night into Thursday. Confidence has actually decreased a bit in precipitation type. What appeared to be a slam dunk snow signal yesterday has become a bit more muddled. Depending on the strength and orientation of the low level jet...there does appear to be at least some potential for a warm nose...especially across southern Missouri. Have maintained snow for now...but this will have to be watched closely for ice potential. Interestingly...the St. Louis University analog system also indicates at least some ice potential. Tulsa AFD: Computer models... in their runs over the past 24 hours... have greatly increased probability of precipitation across the region on Thursday... with conditions favorable for wintry precipitation at that time. An upper trough will develop to our west Wednesday and dig south and east as it approaches eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. In response to strong upper dynamics approaching... a cold front is expected to develop and move across the area overnight Wednesday into Thursday. With cold air in place at the surface as precipitation develops across the region... a range of frozen precipitation types can be expected to move across the region into Thursday afternoon and evening. We are forecasting minor accumulations at this time and will continue to refine the details in the coming days. Wichita, KS: Wednesday - thursday: a stronger wave will move southeast from the northwestern Continental U.S. And impact the region on Wednesday. The GFS and European model (ecmwf) are in good agreement regarding the features of this system which increases confidence. A surface low will develop over southeast Colorado and will move southeast into Texas. Precipitation will develop along and behind the low and cold front draped across the state. With the cold air in place from earlier in the week...precipitation will fall as snow. The cold front will progress southeast Wednesday afternoon and night and snow will be possible across the area. Have increased probability of precipitation for this time period as confidence increases. Current guidance indicate that snow fall accumulations could be from 2 to 5 inches across the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Positives: Looks cold enough for all frozen precip Negatives: Don't know what we'll see I like that kind of uncertainty! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valerie Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 well phooey wintry mix wed nite and thursday now! dang it all!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 16, 2011 Author Share Posted January 16, 2011 Beautiful hit @ 96 on the 18z GFS for MO/KS/NE OK far NW Ark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Positives: Looks cold enough for all frozen precip Negatives: Don't know what we'll see I like that kind of uncertainty! Yeah would hate to eat up all our .25 precip estimate in the form of ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Beautiful hit @ 96 on the 18z GFS for MO/KS/NE OK far NW Ark. Awesome. Better take a look. Too busy watching the Jets/Patriots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Close to .5 liquid for JLN. Good hit everywhere - be it snow or ice. Does look cold enough by 96 for all snow. Correction - Didnt go out far enough to h102. Over .50 liquid for most of the area. Good hit!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 I usually don't pay attention to the 18z, but I will this time if we can lock it in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 16, 2011 Author Share Posted January 16, 2011 Close to .5 liquid for JLN. Good hit everywhere - be it snow or ice. Does look cold enough by 96 for all snow. Looks to be a warm wedge at 84. Looks to be gone in SW MO by 90 though. NW Arkansas still has warm 850 temps and far east NE OK. Probably cold enough for everyone here for snow at 96. I wish this was only 12 hours away though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Right now I would say this one has more potential than the one last week. As long as temps dont mess us up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 17, 2011 Author Share Posted January 17, 2011 Right now I would say this one has more potential than the one last week. As long as temps dont mess us up. yeah it's just really too close. Any slight S or N shift could make a big difference in this kind of heavily jet influenced setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Latest NAM seems to indicate a possible light freezing rain event later tomorrow... thoughts??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 17, 2011 Author Share Posted January 17, 2011 Latest NAM seems to indicate a possible light freezing rain event later tomorrow... thoughts??? what hour? I see temps in the 35-40 degree range? Assuming the NAM isn't 5-10 degrees off again.. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 EDIT: Never mind... I am an idiot. I was looking at numbers for Eastern KS with the QPF for SW MO. Ugh. Sorry! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gusfront Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Hows it goin guys havent been on here in awhile since I didnt know about eastern going down... But anway do we have any ideas about the system later this week <if it is an icing or a snow event for our little area of swmo and sekan? just a curious nervousness after the 0708 deal we had ...Im sure some of us dont want to have to relive that again huh . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 17, 2011 Author Share Posted January 17, 2011 Hows it goin guys havent been on here in awhile since I didnt know about eastern going down... But anway do we have any ideas about the system later this week <if it is an icing or a snow event for our little area of swmo and sekan? just a curious nervousness after the 0708 deal we had ...Im sure some of us dont want to have to relive that again huh . We're waiting on tonights model runs right now. The NAM at hour 84 showed rain for Joplin and 32 degrees. But it is the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Larry Cosgrove's map looks good for the upcoming week FWIW: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 17, 2011 Author Share Posted January 17, 2011 Looks like a decent hit at 90, especially SW MO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Looks like a decent hit at 90, especially SW MO. Yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Quick look at the GFS tonight.. Looks decent for you guys there. Not so here.. the norm this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Not a bad run but defin dryer than that pie-in-the-sky 18z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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