JoMo Posted January 15, 2011 Author Share Posted January 15, 2011 GGEM keeps trending a bit south with the storm @ 120. It looks more like last nights Euro. It's developing heavy precip into Kansas and parts of MO but have no idea about temps or anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valerie Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Am watching the 12z GFS this morning to see if it falls more in line with the EURO or if it stays dry. im addicted to the forecast link at RAP UCAR lol! but why does it show one of the days i choose as blank no html at all just a big white square. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 15, 2011 Author Share Posted January 15, 2011 GGEM.. looks like the energy is weakening like usual though: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 GGEM keeps trending a bit south with the storm @ 120. It looks more like last nights Euro. It's developing heavy precip into Kansas and parts of MO but have no idea about temps or anything. To me the GGEM looks cold enough based solely on the surface low position across AR and 540 thickness. Maybe a question of ice vs snow. The GFS just continues to show northern stream dominance and demolish everything that tries to cut across (which is prolly correct based on the winter so far). Euro jumps ship last nite, as JoMo said earlier. 0z Euro showed around .15 liquid for the Wed nite/Thur AM timeframe with favorable temps for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 15, 2011 Author Share Posted January 15, 2011 To me the GGEM looks cold enough based solely on the surface low position across AR and 540 thickness. Maybe a question of ice vs snow. The GFS just continues to show northern stream dominance and demolish everything that tries to cut across (which is prolly correct based on the winter so far). Euro jumps ship last nite, as JoMo said earlier. 0z Euro showed around .15 liquid for the Wed nite/Thur AM timeframe with favorable temps for snow. Looks like 12z Euro may be interesting for that storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 To me the GGEM looks cold enough based solely on the surface low position across AR and 540 thickness. Maybe a question of ice vs snow. The GFS just continues to show northern stream dominance and demolish everything that tries to cut across (which is prolly correct based on the winter so far). Euro jumps ship last nite, as JoMo said earlier. 0z Euro showed around .15 liquid for the Wed nite/Thur AM timeframe with favorable temps for snow. That northern stream crushing everything is probly gonna be the biggest problem throughout the rest of this winter. Its gonna take extreme luck for us to pull anything nice off this season lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Looks like 12z Euro may be interesting for that storm. Yeah Euro looking more juicy. Extracted data for SGF shows a total of .40 liquid all when surface temps are below 32 and upper air temps indicate snow. Euro also shows incredibly cold temps by Fri AM with lows well below 0 and highs on Fri in the SD's. Tot precip for other surrounding areas: JLN - .41; Tulsa - .34; Fayetteville - .26. All areas appear cold enough for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 15, 2011 Author Share Posted January 15, 2011 Yeah Euro looking more juicy. Extracted data for SGF shows a total of .40 liquid all when surface temps are below 32 and upper air temps indicate snow. Euro also shows incredibly cold temps by Fri AM with lows well below 0 and highs on Fri in the SD's. Tot precip for other surrounding areas: JLN - .41; Tulsa - .34; Fayetteville - .26. All areas appear cold enough for snow. I think this storm is either going to get destroyed by the northern stream or may end up being a big one for someone. Some of the indices are shifting around at that time. May be the last chance for anything before Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Let's hope it is the big one for us. Then we can move on to some warmer weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 15, 2011 Author Share Posted January 15, 2011 Let's hope it is the big one for us. Then we can move on to some warmer weather. Looks boring until middle of Feb so may as well until then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 15, 2011 Author Share Posted January 15, 2011 18z GFS found the storm again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 If the 00z GFS finds it then I would say that we are pretty much *game on* for something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valerie Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 If the 00z GFS finds it then I would say that we are pretty much *game on* for something to watch. sweet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 16, 2011 Author Share Posted January 16, 2011 If the 00z GFS finds it then I would say that we are pretty much *game on* for something to watch. welp, it's still there tonight. Entire area looks to get hit tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 yeah at least we've got the GFS on board now, albeit not showing to be a big event as of now. Just too progressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 16, 2011 Author Share Posted January 16, 2011 Edit 00z Canadian is lighter with the precip, pretty meh. Prolly be some good ratios. This may end up south of us, lol Is that another -NAO showing up in the long range or what? Looks like the cold wants to hang on in the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 16, 2011 Author Share Posted January 16, 2011 Well the Euro is different. Looks like it wants to cut the low off at 120 over the southwest again. Overall some pretty massive differences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 We should start to see some agreement in the models in the next 36 hours or so... just a wait and see, I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Pretty discouraging set of runs from 0z as well as the 6z GFS. Euro backs off the stronger wave idea and does GGEM. Euro still manages around .25-.30 liquid for MO sites but next to nothing for TUL and FAY. Maybe this is just the models losing it as they sometimes do at this range. Long range does look like the cold isnt going away any time soon. Seems any attempt to warm it up just gets knocked back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Noticed Tulsa's snowfall graphic has bumped much of NW Arkansas and NE Oklahoma back into the low 2" range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwassmer Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Wow, these model flip flops are discouraging. The biggest snow I've had from any one event this season is 2.5" -- hardly much to remember. Surely, there's a 6"+ snow storm somewhere in the picture for the lower Ohio Valley! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Wow, these model flip flops are discouraging. The biggest snow I've had from any one event this season is 2.5" -- hardly much to remember. Surely, there's a 6"+ snow storm somewhere in the picture for the lower Ohio Valley! I certainly hope so. Been a pathetic winter so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valerie Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 ill rake anything at this point please 2" at least! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 16, 2011 Author Share Posted January 16, 2011 Very very close on temps on this GFS run. Some of this may be a wintry mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Very very close on temps on this GFS run. Some of this may be a wintry mix. Glad to see the GFS back onto a stronger wave, as long as our temps are good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Very very close on temps on this GFS run. Some of this may be a wintry mix. How did you guys end up doing on the last storm down there in SW MO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 16, 2011 Author Share Posted January 16, 2011 How did you guys end up doing on the last storm down there in SW MO? 1-3" (think we got between 2-2.5 here in Joplin, areas to the south got less) Very dry snow, when I shoveled it, the pavement wasn't even wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 16, 2011 Author Share Posted January 16, 2011 Glad to see the GFS back onto a stronger wave, as long as our temps are good. Def worried about that since we are still 4 days out from the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 16, 2011 Author Share Posted January 16, 2011 GFS Ensembles: GGEM is colder and a bit more amped up with the precip when compared to last nights run. 12z GFS Ens mean: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 16, 2011 Author Share Posted January 16, 2011 According to Chicago WX. Euro shows some snow with the best between Joplin and St. Louis. Estimates 0.2-0.5 QPF for Joplin area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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