springfieldnewsnut Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Ice Storm 2011! Nooooooooooo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 An experienced met who I trust, corresponded with me this evening via Facebook messaging and mentioned he believes that the arctic air may be too shallow to be adequately depicted on the models. He believes an ice storm situation may be shaping up for somewhere in the plains early next week. I personally can see the fact that the models won't handle the arctic air, but I am not for sure precip chances are in our favor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
springfieldnewsnut Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 You know, I'm sort of tired of our region rarely being the bullseye of a storm. It's not that I'm wanting terrible weather conditions by any means, but I get tired of being on the outskirts of a system or in the questionable or on-the-line section of a forecast map. But, I guess that's why the Ozarks is entertaining for forecasters — so many variables and factors that have to be considered every single time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 14, 2011 Author Share Posted January 14, 2011 An experienced met who I trust, corresponded with me this evening via Facebook messaging and mentioned he believes that the arctic air may be too shallow to be adequately depicted on the models. He believes an ice storm situation may be shaping up for somewhere in the plains early next week. I personally can see the fact that the models won't handle the arctic air, but I am not for sure precip chances are in our favor. NAM did come in colder at 84, we get kind of a frontal thing happening over us again. There's multiple waves all over the Pacific and the models are having troubles picking up on the waves and what the waves will do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 I would like to say the latest GFS ticks me off... storms miss us to the west, north, east, and south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 I would like to say the latest GFS ticks me off... storms miss us to the west, north, east, and south. But maybe thats right where we want to be at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Maybe you are right... especially with the models this far out... Btw... This is unfamiliar role reversal territory we are in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valerie Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 morning guys! tulsa is still going with a rain ice mix for sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Maybe you are right... especially with the models this far out... Btw... This is unfamiliar role reversal territory we are in. Yes it is. Wonder what's up with that lol? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 14, 2011 Author Share Posted January 14, 2011 Unless we get a couple of big storms in Feb/March, this will probably go down as a terrible winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Unless we get a couple of big storms in Feb/March, this will probably go down as a terrible winter. Yea man this has been a crappy winter. Oh well what can you do though really. Hopefully this lanina pattern goes bye bye for next year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 14, 2011 Author Share Posted January 14, 2011 So the Euro has a different idea from 168. Notice something missing on the GFS over the southwest when compared to the Euro? Euro: GFS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Well in our case we better hope the Euro is correct because the GFS is crap. At least the Euro might offer up some type of overrunning scenario. The GGEM shows some signal for precip around day 5 but mostly for the OK and AR crew. It may be getting time to reload the cold and have a mild spell to end the month and then hopefully see some action in Feb. This NW flow pattern we're in certainly doesn't do much for us but you get the feeling we're in it for the remainder of the winter. It's even failed to produce an ice storm so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Yea man this has been a crappy winter. Oh well what can you do though really. Hopefully this lanina pattern goes bye bye for next year? I've read that we may be going into a cycle of more Ninas (of varying intensity). Not to say there won't be any Ninos at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 14, 2011 Author Share Posted January 14, 2011 Well in our case we better hope the Euro is correct because the GFS is crap. At least the Euro might offer up some type of overrunning scenario. The GGEM shows some signal for precip around day 5 but mostly for the OK and AR crew. It may be getting time to reload the cold and have a mild spell to end the month and then hopefully see some action in Feb. This NW flow pattern we're in certainly doesn't do much for us but you get the feeling we're in it for the remainder of the winter. It's even failed to produce an ice storm so far. yeah, NW Flow rarely gives us anything good around here. We need those southwest storms. Just complete northern stream domination so far. I thought before winter started we may get lucky with storms digging down into Texas then ejecting NE through Arkansas and on NE from there but the storms so far this year really haven't wrapped up much at all. I guess the La Nina flow has been too progressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 And you know historically LaNina's have had some good results in this area. I went back and looked at snowfall totals for Springfield during the Ninas from 1950-2000 and the avg was around 19". I came up with a total of 16 winters during that span and may have missed a couple but the sample size is adequate. The guys over at the SGF NWS will tell you that ENSO phase is not a big determining factor in the Ozark area WRT snowfall but it's hard to argue against that NW flow with Nina. I'm sure there are many other factors that come into play here but it sure appears we're in the middle of a stinker here this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 14, 2011 Author Share Posted January 14, 2011 And you know historically LaNina's have had some good results in this area. I went back and looked at snowfall totals for Springfield during the Ninas from 1950-2000 and the avg was around 19". I came up with a total of 16 winters during that span and may have missed a couple but the sample size is adequate. The guys over at the SGF NWS will tell you that ENSO phase is not a big determining factor in the Ozark area WRT snowfall but it's hard to argue against that NW flow with Nina. I'm sure there are many other factors that come into play here but it sure appears we're in the middle of a stinker here this winter. yeah it was probably a combination of the -AO/NAO blocking along with La Nina or something. The typical storm track during La Nina's usually gives us some of those storms that dig into Texas then eject NE which gives us snow. I thought we would have a decent winter because of that, but so far this year most storms haven't been able to really wrap up. It's been weak waves of storms ejecting out instead of one big storm. Also it seems that during times when we've had a chance for a big storm, the northern stream has crushed it. I guess the JMA is going with the Euro as well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 I've read that we may be going into a cycle of more Ninas (of varying intensity). Not to say there won't be any Ninos at all. shhhh dont say that hoosier lol.....this winter has been bad enough as it is. Time to move north i say haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 yeah it was probably a combination of the -AO/NAO blocking along with La Nina or something. The typical storm track during La Nina's usually gives us some of those storms that dig into Texas then eject NE which gives us snow. I thought we would have a decent winter because of that, but so far this year most storms haven't been able to really wrap up. It's been weak waves of storms ejecting out instead of one big storm. Also it seems that during times when we've had a chance for a big storm, the northern stream has crushed it. I guess the JMA is going with the Euro as well? Yeah I think it looks more like the Euro. Not a bad looking setup by day 6 on the JMA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 And you know historically LaNina's have had some good results in this area. I went back and looked at snowfall totals for Springfield during the Ninas from 1950-2000 and the avg was around 19". I came up with a total of 16 winters during that span and may have missed a couple but the sample size is adequate. The guys over at the SGF NWS will tell you that ENSO phase is not a big determining factor in the Ozark area WRT snowfall but it's hard to argue against that NW flow with Nina. I'm sure there are many other factors that come into play here but it sure appears we're in the middle of a stinker here this winter. So i guess it can be allright but things have to be exactly right it sounds. We are just in this crappy flow pattern it seems. Hell we can still get a big snow in march but it just melts fast cause of the sun angle. The last 2 years i have seen my biggesr storms in late march. Last year a 6.5" one then when we lived in clinton that 8" one in march there. You just never know out here things change so rappidly on a dime. I do have to say i miss the big east coast snow storms. It kinda spoiled me ya know lol. These little 2-3" storms are nothing to me. Everyone in this town panicked last week from 3" i was like eh this is little stuff to me lol. Sux though cause they dont plow the back roads at all and ours is just a snow packed ice rink still Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 14, 2011 Author Share Posted January 14, 2011 Yeah I think it looks more like the Euro. Not a bad looking setup by day 6 on the JMA. Chicago Wx posted this in a different thread about the Euro: If we want to get technical, via the 12z Euro, it's probably a decent icing event for southern/southwest MO (including STL I'm assuming) with a good hit of snow farther north from KC to pretty much all of IA, SW WI, W IL...before it weakens a bit from 144 to 156/162 for the rest of IL/IN/WI/MI (i.e. lighter amounts), etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Gooooooooooooooooooooooooo EURO!!! Euro FTW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 15, 2011 Author Share Posted January 15, 2011 Doug said he thinks there will be a bigger storm next week even though it isn't shown on the models based on the recurring pattern. (this is probably what the Euro/UKMET/JMA is showing) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valerie Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Doug said he thinks there will be a bigger storm next week even though it isn't shown on the models based on the recurring pattern. (this is probably what the Euro/UKMET/JMA is showing) oh please oh please oh please.......oh your just teasin...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 00z NAM has a good dose of precip toward the end of the run, but temps are too warm...??? I will take that as a step in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valerie Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 00z NAM has a good dose of precip toward the end of the run, but temps are too warm...??? I will take that as a step in the right direction. ok im desperate TWC is shjowing rain/snow for thursday....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 ok im desperate TWC is shjowing rain/snow for thursday....... lol val thats pretty desperate if you watch those forecasts......i do like their live coverage though its neat when they go to different cities and stuff during hurricanes and big winter storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 15, 2011 Author Share Posted January 15, 2011 Euro gave up on the cutoff, has a possible storm between 120-132 or so though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valerie Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 yay were back!! ok my NWS is going with something by thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 yay were back!! ok my NWS is going with something by thursday. Am watching the 12z GFS this morning to see if it falls more in line with the EURO or if it stays dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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