minninni31 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 the NAN is coming in few minutes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 NAM is faster with the cold air across Kansas/Oklahoma by 54. 850 front and all is farther SE. Colder through 60 at low layers. Cold air is really slamming into W OK and TX faster this run. Everything precip wise may end up a bit farther SE. Ok, now I'm worried............ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Wow... miss to the SE for almost everyone in this thread... 24 hours after I was convinced we'd be getting ice. A bona fide DFW-FSM storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 Wow... miss to the SE for almost everyone in this thread... 24 hours after I was convinced we'd be getting ice. yup. That crushing HP is just smashing in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 Just... shocked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eamp Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 FWIW, the GFS BUFKIT shows 24.2" on Cobb... If you are using that 24.2" Cobb storm total off of the hourly tables floating around these forums: 1) The snow totals on these hourly tables are quite bogus, at the output is the equivalent of taking 24 hourly snow measurements and then summing them together. That is not how snow totals are measured. The NWS procedures only allow you take up to 4 measurements a day. As snow is quite compressible, the 24 hourly sum approach results in huge and unrealistic storm totals. 2) The Bufkit tool and the snow meteograms from Iowa state fixed this error back at then end of 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okie333 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 If you are using that 24.2" Cobb storm total off of the hourly tables floating around these forums: 1) The snow totals on these hourly tables are quite bogus, at the output is the equivalent of taking 24 hourly snow measurements and then summing them together. That is not how snow totals are measured. The NWS procedures only allow you take up to 4 measurements a day. As snow is quite compressible, the 24 hourly sum approach results in huge and unrealistic storm totals. 2) The Bufkit tool and the snow meteograms from Iowa state fixed this error back at then end of 2010. Oh, ok. Still 18"+ at the peak though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Just... shocked. ewwww man what happened thats horrible compared to earliers! jeez lets hope its a fluke! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
minninni31 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Hey!i can't believe this >Im still unconscious with this update >We loose all the snowfall here in bartlesville lol Just... shocked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Just... shocked. Jomo.. You are not the only one..Im on the floor in shck at this run.. It gives me 6 inches of snow. lol.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I think i'm the only one this run benefits. I knew it would flip.. but didnt expect that at all. lol Hey!i can't believe this >Im still unconscious with this update >We loose all the snowfall here in bartlesville lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
minninni31 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I dont want see any more runs until 24 hours before the storm arrives! I dont want to go to the hospital because a heart attack jajajajaja.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 Looks like the N stream is farther east this run which causes this. To quote Dodge City. "NAM upper air maps are suspect past 60" It wouldn't surprise me if it was farther SE though due to a stronger amount of cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ozarkwx Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Just... shocked. OTOH I am now apparently out of the ice zone in the freaking snow bullseye. Spot, Waterboy you may get your big one too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okie333 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I dont want see any more runs until 24 hours before the storm arrives! I dont want to go to the hospital because a heart attack jajajajaja.... Spanish? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
minninni31 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I do not understand when the NAN is wrong here get more snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Lol, you just cursed it.. j/k.. I still dont know what to make out of all of this.. The trend at 12z helped me some.. .. But this 18z NAMATTACK just freaked me out.. Of course I know better.. Its going flip again tonight. Still.. forecasters are going to have their heads spinning. OTOH I am now apparently out of the ice zone in the freaking snow bullseye. Spot, Waterboy you may get your big one too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
minninni31 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Yes from BARCELONA (SPAIN) Spanish? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gusfront Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 So guys does it look like we are going to get our butts handed to us with a major ice storm to rival the dec 08 storm ??? Im getting quite disturbed now for this even though it is stil at least a day out .... Thanks jomo and everyone for telling me about any updates on this .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 2 words - Euro, GFS 12z initialization errors became even more exaggerated at 18z lol. IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ozarkwx Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 2 words - Euro, GFS Screw this model hugging. I am going to go outside and enjoy some real weather. By this evening the NAM will probably bring a blizzard to Shreveport and the GFS will bring an ice storm to Springfield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 2 words - Euro, GFS 12z initialization errors became even more exaggerated at 18z lol. IMO Yep... uhh "initialization errors" happened. lol OT: Looks like a fairly large grass fire to the west of here in Kansas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Fires totally out of control now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 Springfield: A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS INTOSOUTHWEST MISSOURI ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 65 MONDAY NIGHT INTOTUESDAY NIGHT. THE WATCH MAY BE EXPANDED FARTHER EAST LATERTONIGHT AS NEW MODEL DATA IS RECEIVED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 WSW already up in the KC region. They must not have looked at the 18z data lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Springfield: A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS INTOSOUTHWEST MISSOURI ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 65 MONDAY NIGHT INTOTUESDAY NIGHT. THE WATCH MAY BE EXPANDED FARTHER EAST LATERTONIGHT AS NEW MODEL DATA IS RECEIVED. Wow. Guess we're within the time range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 Oh...... yeah, here's the 18z NAM Kuchera Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 GFS off and runnin. Ready to take the NAM off to the woodshed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Enjoy your 2-4 JoMo. lol. j/k with ya dude. Not funny I know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 GFS off and runnin. Ready to take the NAM off to the woodshed. KC discussion: THE 12Z GEM AND 18Z NAM IS CONSIDERED A STRONG OUTLIER...WITH LITTLE TO NO SUPPORT FROM GEM AND SREF ENSEMBLES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.