JoMo Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 What about me? I have a feeling you will love them as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 JLN - Approx .20 ice (surface below frz and close at 850), then 850's crash and another 1.10 falls. A lot of that would be snow is my guess. TUL - 1.50 all snow. Yeah thats what its showing! OKC - around .15 as temps are marginal but then another .85 all snow. FAY - .50 with questionalbe temps. 850's look supportive but quest on thickness. Another .15 snow. SGF - .10 ice, .45 as 850's fall below -0-, then another .50 that would be all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 JLN - Approx .20 ice (surface below frz and close at 850), then 850's crash and another 1.10 falls. A lot of that would be snow is my guess. TUL - 1.50 all snow. Yeah thats what its showing! OKC - around .15 as temps are marginal but then another .85 all snow. FAY - .50 with questionalbe temps. 850's look supportive but quest on thickness. Another .15 snow. SGF - .10 ice, .45 as 850's fall below -0-, then another .50 that would be all snow. Thanks...wow. That's quite a cutoff. My guess is it lifts precip farther north in time instead of S-E? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Euro is officially on the train people.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okie333 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 JLN - Approx .20 ice (surface below frz and close at 850), then 850's crash and another 1.10 falls. A lot of that would be snow is my guess. TUL - 1.50 all snow. Yeah thats what its showing! OKC - around .15 as temps are marginal but then another .85 all snow. FAY - .50 with questionalbe temps. 850's look supportive but quest on thickness. Another .15 snow. SGF - .10 ice, .45 as 850's fall below -0-, then another .50 that would be all snow. OMG!!! Euro and GFS (BUFKIT) both show that for my area lol... GFS (GRIB) shows half of it as sleet though. The difference is that BUFKIT is station outputs that are corrected according to local differences in climate, whereas GRIB is an uncorrected interpolation from points roughly 30-40 miles away from each other (even farther than that if you are looking at those NCEP maps). FWIW, the GFS BUFKIT shows 24.2" on Cobb... can anyone get the snow depth map and give me a rough number from the Euro? I'm not asking you to post the map; I know you're not allowed to do that... I just want a number from eyeballing it. Also, can you give me the peak 10m wind (not gust) for TUL? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 JLN - Approx .20 ice (surface below frz and close at 850), then 850's crash and another 1.10 falls. A lot of that would be snow is my guess. TUL - 1.50 all snow. Yeah thats what its showing! OKC - around .15 as temps are marginal but then another .85 all snow. FAY - .50 with questionalbe temps. 850's look supportive but quest on thickness. Another .15 snow. SGF - .10 ice, .45 as 850's fall below -0-, then another .50 that would be all snow. You rock. If you wouldn't mind taking a glance at the QPF map, where does it start really dropping off on the western edge in OK? Is it along I-35 like the GFS, or more west like the NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Thanks...wow. That's quite a cutoff. My guess is it lifts precip farther north in time instead of S-E? Hard to say from these charts. KC for example around 1.3 all snow; STL around 1.4 but only around half would be snow, based on upper air temp, thickness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 You rock. If you wouldn't mind taking a glance at the QPF map, where does it start really dropping off on the western edge in OK? Is it along I-35 like the GFS, or more west like the NAM? No prob. For now all I have is the extracted data on AccuWx. If you'll give me some of the station ID's west of you I will pull them up. Sorry I dont know many out that way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okie333 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 No prob. For now all I have is the extracted data on AccuWx. If you'll give me some of the station ID's west of you I will pull them up. Sorry I dont know many out that way OK, but when you do get the maps, can you eyeball and see the peak snow depth for me? Also does the station data include 10m wind? If so, what is the highest value for KTUL? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 OK, but when you do get the maps, can you eyeball and see the peak snow depth for me? Also does the station data include 10m wind? If so, what is the highest value for KTUL? Maps on AccuWx dont come out until 5-6PM prolly. Sorry the extracted data doesnt show peak wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Lawton .63 mostly snow. Starts out with around .15 ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okie333 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Maps on AccuWx dont come out until 5-6PM prolly. Sorry the extracted data doesnt show peak wind. ...but does it show 10m wind at all? Just give me the highest value lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Lawton .63 mostly snow. Starts out with around .15 ice. Perfect, thanks. Sounds like it's a bit more generous to the W of I-35 than the GFS, then. I'm just trying to figure out how much danger we're in of being dryslotted or otherwise screwed by being too far W if the low waits a little longer to start deepening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 ...but does it show 10m wind at all? Just give me the highest value lol. Sorry no wind. Only Temps, RH, Precip, tkness, pressue, heights Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Perfect, thanks. Sounds like it's a bit more generous to the W of I-35 than the GFS, then. I'm just trying to figure out how much danger we're in of being dryslotted or otherwise screwed by being too far W if the low waits a little longer to start deepening. You know another one just west of there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okie333 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Sorry no wind. Only Temps, RH, Precip, tkness, pressue, heights OK... then what's the minimum temp in the entire period through 240? And what's this I hear about another system from the left-behind energy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 OK... then what's the minimum temp in the entire period through 240? And what's this I hear about another system from the left-behind energy? Not sure, it looks like it would be a Gulf storm but the 500 may go over us. Then at 216 it looks like there's another kicking out of the SW. Prolly should just concentrate on this one, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 You know another one just west of there? If you want to take a look, might be interesting to see LTS and JWG. If they're seeing anything over 0.5" total I'll feel really good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 I think it's possible we see Winter Storm Watches this afternoon or tonight for a large area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 OK... then what's the minimum temp in the entire period through 240? And what's this I hear about another system from the left-behind energy? Tulsal min temp thru next 7 days is -19.5 C Friday AM. Not sure what that converts to lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 If you want to take a look, might be interesting to see LTS and JWG. If they're seeing anything over 0.5" total I'll feel really good. LTS - .30 mostly snow JWG - .33 mostly snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okie333 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Tulsal min temp thru next 7 days is -19.5 C Friday AM. Not sure what that converts to lol. Around -3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 That was a lot of excitement. Now that all the 12z runs are over.. the 18z NAM starts in 30 mins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 That was a lot of excitement. Now that all the 12z runs are over.. the 18z NAM starts in 30 mins. Yeah I need a break lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Concern is growing at SGF: CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT A WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL U.S. INCLUDING THE MISSOURI OZARKS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS FROM THIS MORNING ARE CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION THAT DEPICTS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. WHILE THE DETAILS ON PRECIPITATION TYPE AND AMOUNTS REMAIN UNCERTAIN...THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN FAVORS THE POTENTIAL OF A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MORE DETAILS COMING IN THE NEXT DISCUSSION. ALSO REFER TO THE LATEST SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR MORE INFORMATION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 Concern is growing at SGF: CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT A WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL U.S. INCLUDING THE MISSOURI OZARKS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS FROM THIS MORNING ARE CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION THAT DEPICTS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. WHILE THE DETAILS ON PRECIPITATION TYPE AND AMOUNTS REMAIN UNCERTAIN...THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN FAVORS THE POTENTIAL OF A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MORE DETAILS COMING IN THE NEXT DISCUSSION. ALSO REFER TO THE LATEST SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR MORE INFORMATION. I just came to post that. And HPC is going 1/2 UKMET, 1/2 ECMWF for preferred models. 71 degrees in Tulsa, 70ish here. You know something big is coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Good point. 70 here in Monett now. Unbelievable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Good point. 70 here in Monett now. Unbelievable. 73/3 at OKC now... you can see wildfires breaking out everywhere on KTLX radar over the past hour. We sure do need the precip from this storm no matter what form it's in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 67 here.....crazy weather out here i tell ya! Some farmer was talking to me today about clouds trying to explain stuff to me about this and that and how the clouds look mean a cold front and big storm is a coming. Hell my brain has allready forgotten 3/4 of the stuff he was telling me lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 TSA is getting bullish calling for " Major Winter Storm " From TSA HWO: A MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT OUR AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL BE HEAVY FROM THIS STORM. MODEL CONSENSUS PROJECTS CONSIDERABLE SNOWFALL FROM ABOUT INTERSTATE 44 NORTH. FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA MAY ESCAPE WITH PRECIPITATION FALLING PRIMARILY AS RAIN BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO FREEZING RAIN..SLEET AND ENDING AS LIGHT SNOW. THE AREA GENERALLY BETWEEN INTERSTATE 44 AND FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...AND ALL OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...WILL LIKLEY SEE A HEAVY MIX OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION. IN THAT AREA...A LIKELY SCENARIO WOULD BE FOR A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN... MIXING WITH...THEN CHANGING TO HEAVY SLEET...THEN EVENTUALLY ENDING AS A PERIOD OF SNOW. ALL THIS WILL OCCUR AS NORTH WINDS INCREASE TO 20 MILES AN HOUR OR MORE. SHOULD THIS SITUATION BECOME MORE OF A FREEZING RAIN EVENT...THAN A HEAVY SNOW / SLEET EVENT...MAJOR POWER INTERUPTIONS WOULD BE LIKELY. FRIGID WEATHER WILL TRAIL THE WINTER STORM...LASTING THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT... POWER OUTAGES CAN BE EXPECTED. That would put me in stupid PL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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