natecast Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I have to remind myself not to get too caught up in precip placement this far out. Just know that the potential is there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
minninni31 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 WOW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Uh oh kiss of death from JB. Says the heaviest axis of 6-12 sets up 75 miles either side of the line from SGF to Springfield, MA. Doesnt mention anything about west of here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 GFS is colder. Targets NW Arkansas for the heaviest precip. Still in the money on the GFS for the entire area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valerie Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 B word!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! im calling it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I have to remind myself not to get too caught up in precip placement this far out. Just know that the potential is there. GFS still says we're on the fringe of being too far W to reap the benefits of the storm deepening and pulling in the deep cold air coincident with heavy precip... I'm just as worried about that as I am about the SN/PL line setting up too far NW right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 GFS.... Colder here as well maybe showing more off an Rain to ICE/Snow GFS still says we're on the fringe of being too far W to reap the benefits of the storm deepening and pulling in the deep cold air coincident with heavy precip... I'm just as worried about that as I am about the SN/PL line setting up too far NW right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Sounds like springfield is concerned with more ice then anything. Their data graphics shows ice. The ice snow line on that graphic is one county to my north and ends right here basically where the ice/snow sets up. Man I do not want an ice storm noooooo. I wouldnt wish one on my worst enemy....well i dont think i would anyhow. Tons of snow though on alot of the snow maps being posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valerie Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 we should make bets on when the bread aisle will sell out at walmart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 GGEM is concerning as it is farther SE and colder. Possibly ejecting it out as multiple waves? 72 hrs... Good snow over Central and N OK, Also in central MO ish and farther NE. 84 hrs. End of the precip is over JLN with the end of the heavier precip over Springfield and farther SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 GGEM is concerning as it is farther SE and colder. Possibly ejecting it out as multiple waves? 72 hrs... Good snow over Central and N OK, Also in central MO ish and farther NE. 84 hrs. End of the precip is over JLN with the end of the heavier precip over Springfield and farther SE. Yeah, hard to imagine there wouldn't be a second wave of precipitation given that nice 532 dm H5 low still sitting over AZ. Interesting you brought that up, because it raises a good point: I can remember a few events recently where the models showed a very consolidated period in which we all saw the bulk of our QPF, but it ended up coming in multiple waves. January 28-30 of last year and December 2007 come to mind. Just goes to show that along with all the uncertainties on thermal profiles and QPF placement, the timing and intensity of the QPF is another variable for which the models can't always be trusted as even reasonable approximations from this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Indeed.. Lets keep this trend and maybe I'll see a few inches of snow. GGEM is concerning as it is farther SE and colder. Possibly ejecting it out as multiple waves? 72 hrs... Good snow over Central and N OK, Also in central MO ish and farther NE. 84 hrs. End of the precip is over JLN with the end of the heavier precip over Springfield and farther SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 Indeed.. Lets keep this trend and maybe I'll see a few inches of snow. I don't think it's going to happen. Euro in an hour or so. GFS Ensemble: 72: 84: 96: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Prob right the 00z will flip flop again.. even the 18z will prob flip it again. lol I'm sure the Euro have show something totaly different. I don't think it's going to happen. Euro in an hour or so. GFS Ensemble: 72: 84: 96: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I think the GGEM was trying to do something like that last nite with the 1010 SLP in LA. Throwing it out unless Euro follows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 The Cobb output on the GFS is just crazy. http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/data/index.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Lol at that 19 in. for Monett. HPC siding with the Ukie at this point, which appears to be an awesome track for this region as well so I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 Lol at that 19 in. for Monett. HPC siding with the Ukie at this point, which appears to be an awesome track for this region as well so I'll take it. Yeah, says the GFS/NAM may have some initialization errors. The individual ensembles have some spread as well. I'd rather have a track farther SE now as they may come back a bit NW once this thing is on land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Yeah, says the GFS/NAM may have some initialization errors. The individual ensembles have some spread as well. I'd rather have a track farther SE now as they may come back a bit NW once this thing is on land. Was thinking the same thing. How many times have we seen that last minute NW adjustment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Ive seen it in ALOT of systems.. though not as many this year. Was thinking the same thing. How many times have we seen that last minute NW adjustment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 Euro's running. Chicago Storm said only 3 members of the GGEM ensembles were close to the GGEM operational, rest were NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Good news on the GGEM. Hopefully we can discount that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okie333 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 OMG 24.2" on the 12Z?!?! Apparently BUFKIT shows it as all snow whereas the model maps themselves show some sleet beforehand. http://www.meteor.ia...l=gfs&site=ktul Someone oughta try making a Cobb map... would totally blow Kuchera out of the water for "clowniness". I'd do it, but I don't really know the Cobb algorithm. Is there any place that has source code for it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
minninni31 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I see you...... come on baby lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Euro sounding better for us so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 From Chicago Storm: 78hrs: 1004mb SLP elongated from C. Arkansas to N. Louisiana. Nice hit from OK to MO. 84hrs: 1000mb SLP in the Missouri Bootheel. A hair south of 0z, but in the exact same track as the NAM. Nice hit from NE. KAsnas to C. Illinois. Looks to have a really tight 850 MB boundary at 72. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 As long as its colder prolly a good run for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Numbers coming up. You're gonna love em JoMo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okie333 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Numbers coming up. You're gonna love em JoMo What about me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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