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NE OK/ NW AR/ SE KS/ SW MO Winter 2011


JoMo

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For OKC/OUN, I'm close to throwing in the towel for a major snowstorm. The warm nose is almost always worse than forecast, so it would take a significant southward shift to put us in the game for that.

To me, it's primarily a question of PL vs. ZR. A general rule of thumb for me is that the areas expected to be just too far south for freezing precipitation are the ones who end up getting blasted in the end. In this case, I can envision a crippling ice storm over a 50- or 75-mile wide swath from, say, Ardmore to Fayetteville, with a monumental waste of QPF (a.k.a., mainly sleet) over a large swath NW of there. Of course, it goes without saying that those swaths could shift markedly NW or SE over the next few days.

Lived here all my life and couldn't agree more. One possible saving grace is the strength/depth of the cold air being depicted. On the 6z NAM at 84hrs, the spacing between the 0C line and -10C line at 850mb was very tight, indicating deep, arctic air being funneled in. With a 1050-1054 mb high in MT moving south, things should get pretty interesting! :popcorn:

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Good morning guys just curious to see if al of us in swmo get our arses handed to us with an ice storm like dec92008 ? or of it looks like it is gonna be colder enough higher up to get basically snow through duration of this storm?/ spfld nws says who knows with the track about 30 to 50 miles will be difference but either it is powerful... What are your thoughts everyone ???

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Good morning guys just curious to see if al of us in swmo get our arses handed to us with an ice storm like dec92008 ? or of it looks like it is gonna be colder enough higher up to get basically snow through duration of this storm?/ spfld nws says who knows with the track about 30 to 50 miles will be difference but either it is powerful... What are your thoughts everyone ???

I'm really scared to say at this point. I will say that models have defin trended colder over the past 12 hrs which puts us in a much better position for snow vs. ice as you know. Until it starts trending back the other way I'm inclined to say more snow. Then there's the fact that in strong systems like this models have a tendency to underestimate the warm air advection part of the equation. I believe there will be a sharp cutoff between massisve snow totals and good totals. I'll take either lol.

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Lived here all my life and couldn't agree more. One possible saving grace is the strength/depth of the cold air being depicted. On the 6z NAM at 84hrs, the spacing between the 0C line and -10C line at 850mb was very tight, indicating deep, arctic air being funneled in. With a 1050-1054 mb high in MT moving south, things should get pretty interesting! :popcorn:

Yeah, that post I made 20 minutes before the 06z NAM came out was really just a challenge to the models to prove me wrong. :whistle:

In all seriousness, while I'm still highly skeptical, it seems there might be a trend towards the baroclinic zone and SLP track orienting a bit more N-S and less E-W, which would favor us out here (sort of like 12/24/09). I sure do hate battling the warm nose above an arctic airmass, though... hell, even Christmas Eve saw us dealing with PL for longer than expected.

Gah... and I really was just about ready to pin all my hopes on ice last night, too.

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Yeah, that post I made 20 minutes before the 06z NAM came out was really just a challenge to the models to prove me wrong. :whistle:

In all seriousness, while I'm still highly skeptical, it seems there might be a trend towards the baroclinic zone and SLP track orienting a bit more N-S and less E-W, which would favor us out here (sort of like 12/24/09). I sure do hate battling the warm nose above an arctic airmass, though... hell, even Christmas Eve saw us dealing with PL for longer than expected.

Gah... and I really was just about ready to pin all my hopes on ice last night, too.

We have definitely been burned by the warm nose many times before. Good point on the N-S baroclinic zone, I do remember that from 12/24/09.

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Raw Cobb/Bufkit spits out....

JLN: 0.84" of sleet..... 9.5" snow.

OKC: Freezing dizzle at the start... 0.29" of sleet... 14.6" snow

TUL: Freezing drizzle at the start... 0.51" sleet... 12.4" snow

Monett.... a big mess....... 0.21 freezing rain... 0.74" sleet...... 9.4" snow

Springfield: a big mess... 0.22 freezing rain... 0.89" sleet... 12.5" snow

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Raw Cobb/Bufkit spits out....

JLN: 0.84" of sleet..... 9.5" snow.

OKC: Freezing dizzle at the start... 0.29" of sleet... 14.6" snow

TUL: Freezing drizzle at the start... 0.51" sleet... 12.4" snow

Monett.... a big mess....... 0.21 freezing rain... 0.74" sleet...... 9.4" snow

Springfield: a big mess... 0.22 freezing rain... 0.89" sleet... 12.5" snow

Trying to find that petition as we speak.....:scooter:

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