MoWeatherguy Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I'm defin stayin up for the Euro tonite. Big run coming up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Cobb data out for the 0z. Crazy totals out there. 15 in JLN; 13 MON. 9 TUL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
minninni31 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 6 TO 8 here BARTESVILLE Cobb data out for the 0z. Crazy totals out there. 15 in JLN; 13 MON. 9 TUL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
natecast Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 What does it show in OKC? Nevermind. 4-6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Showing rain here for much of the storm, then some PL and ZR later. Dusting of snow at the end. If it gets like 2 degree colders than the 00z GFS is currently showing then it could be alot of ZR. Watch at 12Z it will show something totaly different. Will this thing be on land by 12z Sunday? 6 TO 8 here BARTESVILLE Cobb data out for the 0z. Crazy totals out there. 15 in JLN; 13 MON. 9 TUL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 Euro is coming in colder.. Not sure how much colder though. From Chicago Storm: 84hrs: 1004MB SLP in NE. Texas. CAA is clearly stronger int he Plains. Light precip across the lower GL with mod-heavy precip from KC into TX. 90hrs: 1004mb SLP in North/Central Arkansas. Heavy precip from LA to MO. Nice hit for KC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Sounds like Euro may be coming in colder from what I'm reading on another thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I wish I had better access to the Euro. Sounds like Euro may be coming in colder from what I'm reading on another thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Looks like the front end is still too warm for JLN. Extracted data showing .44 precip thru 12z Tue - mostly rain according to surface and 850 temps. Edit: Now for the good part. Showing .68 after that time as temps crash by noon Tue so maybe a quick transition over to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 Looks like the front end is still too warm for JLN. Extracted data showing .44 precip thru 12z Tue - mostly rain according to surface and 850 temps. Edit: Now for the good part. Showing .68 after that time as temps crash by noon Tue so maybe a quick transition over to snow. Nice, what does OKC, Tulsa and you get? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 TUL only .20 when temps are cold enough but around .55 prior to that when surface temps are below frz so major ice? OKC .38 in the deeper cold and around .20 prior to that which appears to be ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 TUL only .20 when temps are cold enough but around .55 prior to that when surface temps are below frz so major ice? OKC .38 in the deeper cold and around .20 prior to that which appears to be ice. Sounds like the Euro is probably closer to what the NAM would show. Models may get colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 SGF .30 in the colder air Tue PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Another 2-3 colder and this would be quite the snowstorm on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 Another 2-3 colder and this would be quite the snowstorm on the Euro. I'm thinking it will be with that high pressure. I mean the NAM was much colder and the Euro was a lot colder as well based on description Just have to watch out for that 850 temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I agree the trend is now shifting to much colder which can only be good for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 KC 1.20 QPF. You know the rest. Another dumping for C MO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 If it corrects to what it was showing the other day then I might get a bit of something. Other wise nothing much. I agree the trend is now shifting to much colder which can only be good for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 So tonite - Euro/NoGaps farthest north with more ice and maybe a quick transition to snow in this region. GFS/Ukie - further south but good hit of snow due to track and colder temps. GEM who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 For OKC/OUN, I'm close to throwing in the towel for a major snowstorm. The warm nose is almost always worse than forecast, so it would take a significant southward shift to put us in the game for that. To me, it's primarily a question of PL vs. ZR. A general rule of thumb for me is that the areas expected to be just too far south for freezing precipitation are the ones who end up getting blasted in the end. In this case, I can envision a crippling ice storm over a 50- or 75-mile wide swath from, say, Ardmore to Fayetteville, with a monumental waste of QPF (a.k.a., mainly sleet) over a large swath NW of there. Of course, it goes without saying that those swaths could shift markedly NW or SE over the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
minninni31 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 uptdate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 uptdate Thats quite aggressive from Tulsa, and they tend to be conservative on winter events...I wouldn't imagine the snowfall of that magnitude would go that far southwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okie333 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 uptdate Love it... and the 6z GFS and the 6z DGEX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 6z GFS just went bezeerk with snow totals across the region. Sure is fun to look at. http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays2.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valerie Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 morning and omg omg!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 Looks like the NAM is colder (from 00z) through 60. 850 MB line has moved farther SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Cant find the 6z ensemble but most members look fairly similar to me in SLP placement and have most of us entrenced in the cold by h90-96. The cold advection down the plains appeared much stronger on the 6z resulting in even higher totals for here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Appears we may be seeing the same thing on the NAM this morning as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 Cant find the 6z ensemble but most members look fairly similar to me in SLP placement and have most of us entrenced in the cold by h90-96. The cold advection down the plains appeared much stronger on the 6z resulting in even higher totals for here. The GFS? http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/ewallmref.html The OP was the driest at 96 I think... lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 The GFS? http://www.meteo.psu.../ewallmref.html The OP was the driest at 96 I think... lol OK on that link where do you find the avg of all the ensembles, like the maps you normally post? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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