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NE OK/ NW AR/ SE KS/ SW MO Winter 2011


JoMo

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Showing rain here for much of the storm, then some PL and ZR later. Dusting of snow at the end. If it gets like 2 degree colders than the 00z GFS is currently showing then it could be alot of ZR. Watch at 12Z it will show something totaly different.

Will this thing be on land by 12z Sunday?

6 TO 8 here BARTESVILLE :guitar:

Cobb data out for the 0z. Crazy totals out there. 15 in JLN; 13 MON. 9 TUL :pepsi:

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Euro is coming in colder.. Not sure how much colder though.

From Chicago Storm:

84hrs: 1004MB SLP in NE. Texas.

CAA is clearly stronger int he Plains.

Light precip across the lower GL with mod-heavy precip from KC into TX.

90hrs: 1004mb SLP in North/Central Arkansas.

Heavy precip from LA to MO.

Nice hit for KC.

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Looks like the front end is still too warm for JLN. Extracted data showing .44 precip thru 12z Tue - mostly rain according to surface and 850 temps.

Edit: Now for the good part. Showing .68 after that time as temps crash by noon Tue so maybe a quick transition over to snow.

Nice, what does OKC, Tulsa and you get?

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TUL only .20 when temps are cold enough but around .55 prior to that when surface temps are below frz so major ice? OKC .38 in the deeper cold and around .20 prior to that which appears to be ice.

Sounds like the Euro is probably closer to what the NAM would show. Models may get colder.

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Another 2-3 colder and this would be quite the snowstorm on the Euro.

I'm thinking it will be with that high pressure. I mean the NAM was much colder and the Euro was a lot colder as well based on description Just have to watch out for that 850 temps.

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For OKC/OUN, I'm close to throwing in the towel for a major snowstorm. The warm nose is almost always worse than forecast, so it would take a significant southward shift to put us in the game for that.

To me, it's primarily a question of PL vs. ZR. A general rule of thumb for me is that the areas expected to be just too far south for freezing precipitation are the ones who end up getting blasted in the end. In this case, I can envision a crippling ice storm over a 50- or 75-mile wide swath from, say, Ardmore to Fayetteville, with a monumental waste of QPF (a.k.a., mainly sleet) over a large swath NW of there. Of course, it goes without saying that those swaths could shift markedly NW or SE over the next few days.

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Cant find the 6z ensemble but most members look fairly similar to me in SLP placement and have most of us entrenced in the cold by h90-96. The cold advection down the plains appeared much stronger on the 6z resulting in even higher totals for here.

The GFS?

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/ewallmref.html

The OP was the driest at 96 I think... lol

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